Thursday Night Football MKF Prop Picks: Washington Football Team vs. NY Giants

September 15, 2021

Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 2 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Giants and Washington Football Team and offers his favorite prop picks and more/less picks for Monkey Knife Fight.

The NFL season is back, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some money. Tonight, we kick off Week 2 with the Washington Football Team hosting the New York Giants.

On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to win.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.

Football Team vs Giants: More or Less Contest

• Taylor Heinicke UNDER 237.5 passing yards
• Daniel Jones UNDER 227.5 passing yards

Remember when last week’s Thursday night game was a 31-29 shootout featuring the world champions that went down to the final minute of play? I’m expecting fewer fireworks tonight between these two squads. Taylor Heinicke played well in relief of the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick (hip) in Week 1, but he’s also not the risk-taker that Fitzpatrick is. His yardage total is inherently expected to be less. Throw in the fact that the Giants’ defense is a solid group from front to back, and this figures to be a low-scoring game for both sides.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. In Week 1, Daniel Jones struggled against a quality defense, and he needed a rushing touchdown with the clock expired to make the final score look more respectable. He was able to manage 267 yards against a good Denver Broncos defense, but 113 of those yards came in the fourth quarter when the Giants were never within fewer than 10 points with Denver playing safe defense. In four career games against Washington, he’s 4-0, but he’s only gone over 227.5 once. Washington’s defensive front has more than enough talent to take advantage of this young Giants offensive line and make life rough for Jones.

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Football Team vs Giants: More or Less Contest

• Terry McLaurin MORE than 70.5 receiving yards
• Sterling Shepard LESS than 62.5 passing yards

This one is largely tied to the projections for Heinicke more so than the talent of McLaurin. McLaurin is a talented wideout, and he’s cleared this mark in each of his three career games against the Giants. Last week, with Heinicke under center for the second half of the game, McLaurin finished the game with just 62 total yards and four targets. All four of those targets came after Fitzpatrick left the game, but 34 of those 62 yards came on one play. In a game I expect to be low-scoring, I’m not projecting McLaurin to have a big night.

Evan Engram is out. Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton primarily line up out wide, where Washington’s best defensive backs are, which keeps Shepard in the slot with a better matchup. Shepard also will be closer to Jones, who will likely be needing to get rid of the ball quickly against this pass rush. Shepard has seen at least five targets in each of his career games against Washington. If he can catch just one or two big plays with some room to run, he can clear this mark.

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Football Team vs Giants: More or Less Contest

• Antonio Gibson MORE than 68.5 rushing yards
• Saquon Barkley LESS than 52.5 rushing yards

Gibson has gone for 61+ yards on the ground in each of his last three regular-season games dating to last year, and two of those three games saw teammate J.D. McKissic getting a fair bit of work. In Week 1, Gibson had 23 touches compared to just one for McKissic. In a game I think Washington tries to grind out a victory, I think Gibson gets to this mark.

Barkley failed to play over 50 percent of the snaps in Week 1. He had 10 carries for 26 yards, and he just doesn’t seem like he’s in a good spot to produce behind this offensive line while he’s working himself back up to game speed. This Washington defensive front can get after Barkley to keep him contained. They also have the linebackers in Jamin Davis and Cole Holcomb to limit his plays on the edge. If Barkley was guaranteed all of the snaps, I’d be more into him hitting the over, but I can’t be certain of that yet.

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Football Team vs Giants: Rapid Fire Contest

• Taylor Heinicke -10.5 passing yards over Daniel Jones & Sterling Shepard +8.5 receiving yards over Terry McLaurin

Heinicke isn’t great, but Jones is worse. That’s just how things are at this point in their respective careers. Neither guy has shown any consistency at this stage, but Heinicke gets the nod to cover because his defense is better. Shepard covering the gap between him and McLaurin is relatively straightforward based on the pick we had previously. If I’m projecting Shepard to go over and McLaurin to go under, they’re only separated by eight on the projection. This is an easy pick.

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