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Week 15 Monday Night Football features a matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints. The game will be played in New Orleans, has an implied total of 46.5 points, and a spread of around nine points favoring the Saints. Both offenses offer really some exciting plays on Monkey Knife Fight!
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Pick 1: Over/Under (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Drew Brees OVER 290.5 Passing Yards and Jacoby Brissett OVER 227.5 Passing Yards
Both the Saints' and Colts' pass defenses rank below average in passing yards allowed per game this season. The Saints allow 266.5 passing yards and the Colts allow 261 passing yards per game.
In the seven full games that Brees has played this season, he has surpasses 290.5 passing yards four times. Brees has broken 290.5 passing yards against some really stout defenses and there is no reason to believe that he won't be able to do it against the below average Colts Defense.
As for Brissett, his passing yard totals haven't been excellent this season but he has shown some real promise the last two weeks. Over the last two weeks, he has thrown for 319 and 251 yards. As mentioned, the Saints pass defense is nothing to be worried about and the Saints are nine point favorites in a relatively high implied total game. With that being said, Brissett will have numerous reasons to open up the passing game in an attempt to keep the game close in score. 227.5 passing yards in a game that should be somewhat of a shootout is just far too low.
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Pick 2: Over/Under Fantasy Points (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Michael Thomas OVER 22.5 Fantasy Points and Jacoby Brissett OVER 16.5 Fantasy Points
Michael Thomas is really good at football and taking the under in the PPR format that MKF offers just seems silly. Thomas has seen double digit targets all but three games this season, has seven double digit reception games, and eight touchdowns this season. Thomas ranks first of all WRs in receptions, receiving yards, and completed air yards. He leads all of those categories by quite a bit. Even though the Saints are big favorites and may lean on the run more often than normal, any lead they take early in the game will likely be a direct result of Thomas' performance.
As mentioned above, Brissett has been trending in the right direct and draws a really nice matchup and game script to rack up some fantasy points. Though he isn't an elite running QB, it would be reasonable to see 20-30 rushing yards over the course of the game. With the (hopefully) over 227.5 passing yards and 20-30 rushing yards, as long as he can find the end zone a couple times, he'll be well on his way of smashing that 16.5 fantasy point threshold.
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Pick 3: Over Under (6/6)
Recommended Prop Pick: Drew Brees OVER 290.5 Passing Yards, Jacoby Brissett OVER 227.5 Passing Yards, Michael Thomas OVER 8.5 Receptions, Alvin Kamara OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards, Zach Pascal OVER 51.5 Receiving Yards, and Jared Cook OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards
Lets go bold and try to 31x our buy-in, folks! I have mentioned the first three players so I won't dive back into them. I am a big fan of the over for those three in all formats that MKF offers.
As for Kamara, his rushing shares have been fairly solid throughout the season. He has seen double digit carries in all but one game this season and though he has not seen 20 carries in a game, his talent to rack up yards makes up for it. With his line sitting at 56.5 rushing yards, all it will take is for him to break off a couple decent runs to surpass that total.
T.Y. Hilton is questionable for Monday night and the Colts have said that he will only play if he is 100% healthy. As of right now, assuming Hilton is out, I really like the over for Pascal with 51.5 receiving yards. Over the last two games, Pascal has seen 10 and nine targets and as long as Hilton is out, he should see just as many on Monday night. With that much opportunity, 51.5 receiving yards should not be an issue.
Lastly, Cook has been solid the last three games but has not been consistent enough this season for me to like the over of 47.5 receiving yards. Cook's season high for receptions is six and has averaged just over three catches per game. In a game where the implied total suggesting that the Saints will take a fairly large lead and lean more towards the running game, taking the under on receiving yards for Cook is certainly the safer of the two options.
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