RADIO
Matt Miller dives into his top longshot bets for the 2026 WM Phoenix Open. PGA sleeper plays, value bets, and under-the-radar golf betting insights.
Welcome to my weekly longshots article! The purpose of this piece is to identify players further down the board who are low-risk, high-reward wagers. For purposes of this article, I am considering longshots to be players over 100-1 on the odds list.
The wagers listed below might have playability in various sectors of the market. Please search your shops to see if you can find anything enticing.
If you have any additional questions for me, you can find me on X @MattyMillz85. I am always more than happy to answer any questions you might have. Also, stay tuned for additional announcements from me here in 2026. Big things are on the way!
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Max Homa (115-1 DraftKings)
Max Homa disappointed many last week, missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. Still, there was some good to take away from his performance. Homa gained strokes both off the tee and on approach in his only measured round at the South Course. The abysmal showing on and around the greens cost him an opportunity to play the weekend.
Max Homa with an absolute dart on 5 🎯
Jupiter Links GC wins their third straight hole 😯 pic.twitter.com/rDLE9heFKb
— TGL (@TGL) February 2, 2026
Homa has now gained strokes off the tee and on approach in both starts to begin 2026. There are a lot of positives from a long-term perspective in these two categories as well. The 35-year-old has now gained strokes on approach in ten straight starts dating back to June of last year. He has gained strokes off the tee in three straight starts and seven of his last nine.
The Scottsdale native will surely have a ton of support this week at the WM Phoenix Open. Homa has five made cuts in seven appearances at this event, his best finish a T6 in 2020. While the finishes haven’t necessarily been there yet, Homa’s game is turning a corner and if the putter cooperates, I believe it is only a matter of time before he is contending for wins again.
Tony Finau (130-1 DraftKings)
Is Tony Finau back? In my opinion, it’s far too early to tell. That said, his T11 finish last week at the Farmers Insurance Open was his best result since the Genesis Invitational last February. Finau has great course history at Torrey Pines so we may simply be looking at a horse for the course situation.
🚨 FIRST ACE OF THE SEASON 🚨
It’s a 1️⃣ for Tony Finau on the 16th hole at Torrey Pines South! pic.twitter.com/Xntdnh8Vuy
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 29, 2026
However, the numbers suggest that Finau is trending in the right direction. Finau was 11th in the field in strokes gained off the tee last week and ninth in strokes gained approach. Despite missing the cut at The American Express the week prior, Finau also hit the ball well in his only measured round at the Stadium Course. He gained 1.42 strokes on approach and 0.57 strokes off the tee.
With the ball striking rounding into form, Finau heads to a course where he’s shown he can contend at. In 2020, the 36-year-old lost in a playoff to Webb Simpson. He finished T14 at this event in 2023 and has an additional top 25 finish on his resume. While it would be a pretty big ask for him to land back in the winner’s circle this quickly, I would not be surprised to see another strong showing this week.
Chris Kirk (185-1 DraftKings)
Chris Kirk has missed two cuts to start 2026, which is probably why he’s listed at 185-1 this week. Despite the finishes, I’m intrigued by Kirk’s iron play. He has now gained strokes on approach in six straight starts dating back to July of 2025. Additionally, the veteran has gained strokes off the tee in six of his last seven starts.
The course history is also positive for Kirk at TPC Scottsdale. In 13 career starts at this event, Kirk has made the cut in nine of them. Three times he has finished inside the top 25, his best finish a T11 in 2018. While I’m not sure if Kirk is capable of winning this week, he’s certainly a guy I am eyeing in the top 20 market.
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