Matt Miller's 2026 Truist Championship Longshot Bets

May 6, 2026

Matt Miller dives into his top longshot bets for the 2026 Truist Championship sleeper plays, value bets, and under-the-radar golf betting insights.

Welcome to my weekly longshots article! The purpose of this piece is to identify players further down the board who are low-risk, high-reward wagers. For purposes of this article, I am considering longshots to be players over 100-1 on the odds list.

The wagers listed below might have playability in various sectors of the market. Please search your shops to see if you can find anything enticing.

If you have any additional questions for me, you can find me on X @MattyMillz85. I am always more than happy to answer any questions you might have. Also, stay tuned for additional announcements from me here in 2026. Big things are on the way!

Alex Noren (100-1 FanDuel)

Alex Noren heads to Quail Hollow on the heels of a T7 finish at last week's Cadillac Championship. For the third consecutive start, Noren was excellent on approach. The veteran's iron play is trending in the right direction as he tees it up at a course that will put an emphasis on strong approach play, particularly with long irons.

While Noren isn't the longest hitter off the tee, it was encouraging to see him turn in a good effort at Doral, a course that also prototypically favors longer hitters. Noren's accuracy will play to his advantage this week at firm and fast Quail Hollow golf course. If he continues to hit his irons the way he has been the last few weeks, I don't believe the lack of distance will be as big of a determinant as some may think.

Akshay Bhatia had to flex after that one 💪😮‍💨

Having some fun with Alex Noren at the drivable (for some) par-4 16th @Cadillac_Champ.

📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/k6VEhvQVq3

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 3, 2026

Another thing working in the 38-year-old's favor this week is his short game. While he will need to clean up some struggles as of late, Noren historically has a great short game. On a firm and fast golf course where many players will have a hard time holding greens on their approach shots, around the green play will be pivotal this week in Charlotte.

I have a ton of faith in Noren both scrambling and making putts on difficult golf courses. While he may not win the event, I believe he is a sneaky play for top 10 finish.

Matt McCarty (115-1 DraftKings)

The 28-year-old is starting to heat up again. McCarty's last four starts have resulted in T24, T12, T12 and T9 finishes. So far in 2026, the Santa Clara product already has three Top 10 finishes. While he may not be the biggest name on the board week in and week out, the kid has some serious game.

From a #G440 LST to a custom #PLD Tyne C, lefty Matt McCarty takes us through his bag, POV style. pic.twitter.com/z6QMdoEllC

— PING GOLF (@PingTour) March 18, 2026

While it is fair to question whether or not McCarty has enough distance off the tee to compete at a course like Quail Hollow, I believe his accuracy and iron play are strong enough to overcome that. McCarty finished T9 last week at Doral, a course that required a similar profile to what we will see this week in North Carolina.

Doral was a course that required many long approach shots into greens surrounded by trouble and McCarty answered the test. The 28-year-old finished third on the week in strokes gained approach, gaining 5.7 strokes against the field.

McCarty is also a fantastic putter who I trust to clean up par looks while scrambling around, and capitalize on birdie opportunities. Similar to Noren, I don't know that he will have enough juice to win outright, but a finishing position bet could be a nice way to get on McCarty this week.

Ryan Fox (115-1 DraftKings)

While the finishing result wasn't great last week, there were some encouraging signs to take away from Ryan Fox's performance at Trump Doral. The 39-year-old was very good both off the tee and on approach. The approach play appears to be dialed back in after his mid-March issues with kidney stones.

Fox is one of the longer hitters on tour so it would be not be much of a surprise to see him perform well at a long course like Quail Hollow. Earlier this season, Fox finished T7 at the Genesis Invitational at Riviera, another long golf course. Riviera has had some crossover winners with Quail Hollow over the years, and many suggest that golfers who play well and one, often play well at the other.

Whether or not Fox has what it takes to get a win across the finish line this week remains to be seen. Still, I believe it would not be a shock to see him in the mix over the weekend or even atop the leaderboard after round one.

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020