Matt Miller's 2026 Farmers Insurance Open PGA Longshot Bets

January 27, 2026

Matt Miller dives into his top longshot bets for the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open. PGA sleeper plays, value bets, and under-the-radar golf betting insights.

Welcome to my weekly longshots article! The purpose of this piece is to identify players further down the board who are low-risk, high-reward wagers. For purposes of this article, I am considering longshots to be players over 100-1 on the odds list.

The wagers listed below might have playability in various sectors of the market. Please search your shops to see if you can find anything enticing.

If you have any additional questions for me, you can find me on X @MattyMillz85. I am always more than happy to answer any questions you might have. Also, stay tuned for additional announcements from me here in 2026. Big things are on the way!

Aldrich Potgieter (130-1 DraftKings)

The 21-year-old South African bomber is one of the more exciting young players to watch on the PGA Tour. At an event that favors long hitters off the tee, Potgieter certainly checks the first box that we are looking for this week. Potgieter led the tour last year in driving distance and figures to be near the top again this year.

While Potgieter’s accuracy off the tee leaves much to be desired, he should be able to get away with spraying the ball at Torrey Pines. Torrey Pines is a course that does not have a big miss penalty. Despite the thicker rough, whether you’re two yards off the fairway or 15, you still face similar challenges. While you’ll have to pick your spots wisely with Potgieter, this is certainly a course that he is capable of playing well.

Potgieter had three top 10 finishes last season on the PGA Tour, including his first career PGA Tour win at the Rocket Classic. He also had a devastating playoff loss at the Mexico Open. While the Farmers Insurance Open is certainly a stronger and more prestigious event than the two forementioned, it is a positive sign to see Potgieter already have experience contending and closing out PGA Tour events.

Billy Horschel (150-1 DraftKings)

I typically think of Billy Horschel as a Florida guy that plays his best golf on the East Coast. That said, the 100-1 number at Torrey Pines is intriguing. Horschel has played this event 13 times, making the cut in eight of those starts. He has finished inside the top 11 on three of those occasions. Additionally, while I prefer Horschel on Bermuda greens, he has gained strokes putting at Torrey in his last two trips and in three of his last five.

Despite not being known as a bomber, I like Horschel’s game for this style of event. He won the Memorial Tournament in 2022 at a longer par 72 golf course. The event was won at -13, which was the winning score we’ve seen at this event in two of the last three years. In fact, four of his eight PGA Tour wins have come at scores between -11 and -14. Horschel is the type of player I prefer in a grind-it-out type of event where guys need to make ten footers to save par.

The 39-year-old has played in each of the first two events of the PGA Tour season. While the results haven’t been anything special, I like that he’s shaken off all rust prior to this week. Horschel hit the ball really well on approach last week at The American Express, which is an encouraging sign heading to Torrey Pines. He also gained strokes around the green and putting.

Sam Ryder (275-1 DraftKings)

I have my doubts about Sam Ryder’s ability to win a golf tournament. At age 36, he has yet to win on tour and it would be a bit of surprise to see his first win come at an event with this strong of a field. Ryder’s history at Torrey Pines is compelling, nonetheless. In eight career starts he has three top 25 finishes, including two top 10 finishes in 2021 and 2023.

If you believe in the old announcer’s jinx, we have none other than Mrs. Ryder to blame for the meltdown that cost him the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open. While leading in the final round on the back nine, CBS cut to Mrs. Ryder who confidently declared she was going to see Sam’s first win. Ryder ultimately finished 4^th in the tournament and came up short of his first career win.

On top of this being an event that he held the lead with six holes to go in 2023; Ryder has some positives to take away from his performance last week at The American Express. The veteran gained 1.87 strokes on approach per datagolf and gained 1.66 strokes putting. He will need his irons and putter to stay hot this week to get himself back into contention.

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

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