Matt Miller's 2026 Cognizant Classic Longshot Bets

February 25, 2026

Matt Miller dives into his top longshot bets for the 2026 Cognizant Classic. PGA sleeper plays, value bets, and under-the-radar golf betting insights.

Welcome to my weekly longshots article! The purpose of this piece is to identify players further down the board who are low-risk, high-reward wagers. For purposes of this article, I am considering longshots to be players over 100-1 on the odds list.

The wagers listed below might have playability in various sectors of the market. Please search your shops to see if you can find anything enticing.

If you have any additional questions for me, you can find me on X @MattyMillz85. I am always more than happy to answer any questions you might have. Also, stay tuned for additional announcements from me here in 2026. Big things are on the way!

Luke Clanton (105-1 DraftKings)

Luke Clanton debuted on the PGA Tour as an amateur in 2024. He had four Top 10 finishes in his first eight starts, including a pair of second place finishes. He won four times in college between February and March of 2025 before turning pro at the RBC Canadian Open. Since officially turning pro, the results have been disappointing.

PGA National is Luke Clanton's home course, and one he estimated that he has played over 50 times. 👀

Read more: https://t.co/fFnfQp1KUp pic.twitter.com/9r58kUA3tc

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) February 24, 2026

Despite not making a cut so far in 2026, there are some signs that the 22-year-old is turning things around. According to datagolf, Clanton has now gained strokes on approach in four straight measured starts. Prior to this stretch, he had lost strokes in this category in four consecutive tournaments.

The biggest issue to start 2026 has been the putter. However, I am hopeful this will turn around as the Florida swing kicks off. Clanton was born and raised in Florida and played his college golf at Florida State University. There should be a large level of comfort returning back to the Bermuda green complexes he’s spent his whole life putting on.

The comfort level this week expands past just playing Florida golf. Playing PGA National is a bit of home game for Clanton, not just in proximity to where he grew up but in familiarity with the course. Golf Digest stated that Clanton estimated he has played this course over 50 times. If there’s a week for the rising star to right the ship, it’s this one.

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Sam Ryder (120-1 DraftKings)

If you can get past the fact that Ryder is 36 years old without a PGA Tour win, there’s a lot to like about him this week. In his last three PGA Tour starts, Ryder has hit it extremely well on approach and has also putt extremely well. Approach play and putting will be the two most important categories to keep our eye on this week at PGA National.

Most birdies or better per round at Cognizant Classic since 2020, among players in field, min. 10 rounds:

Erik van Rooyen, 4.44
Sam Ryder, 4.35
Adam Svensson, 4.33
Keith Mitchell, 4.17
Chris Kirk, 4.14

— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) February 24, 2026

Ryder has made five of five cuts at this event in his career, including two Top 10 finishes in 2021 and 2022. While course history isn’t as essential at this event as some of the others we have seen recently, it’s clear he’s very comfortable around PGA National. Ryder is a Florida native and played his collegiate golf at Stetson, located just outside of Orlando. If there were to be a time for him to breakthrough, it would be during the Florida swing.

Austin Smotherman (150-1 BetMGM)

It’s nice to see Smo back on the PGA Tour! After being a PGA Tour member from 2022-2024, Smotherman was relegated back to the Korn Ferry Tour last season where he played extremely well. He won twice and had three additional Top 10 finishes.

The 31-year-old is currently on fire with his irons, gaining strokes on approach in all four of his PGA Tour starts to begin 2026. Most notably he gained 5.6 strokes on approach at The American Express, leading the field for the week. He has been let down big time with his putter to begin the year, which is a problem that has plagued Smotherman for quite some time.

With as well as Austin Smotherman is hitting his irons, it’s worth the gamble this far down the board to hope he finds some semblance of a putting performance this week. PGA National doesn’t exactly have the most difficult green complexes to navigate and much of its defense comes with water around the greens. With the way Smotherman is playing, he should have plenty of birdie looks.

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