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Later-Round First Basemen - Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Targets

Analysis of five fantasy baseball first basemen to draft in the late rounds. Potential 2022 fantasy baseball sleepers and undervalued 1B to target in drafts.

Welcome officially to the 2022 fantasy baseball season! Now that an MLB deal is in place, a lot more fantasy drafts will be taking place -- and we're here as always to guide you through it. Once you reach the late rounds of drafts, everyone is looking to draft players with upside that can provide a great return on value. You can afford to start taking a risk or two on a variety of different players, including emerging prospects, overlooked veterans, players returning from injury, or even talented players who may have some playing time concerns. The early rounds are critical and the middle rounds shape the core of your starting squad, but the late rounds are where you have the opportunity to select hidden gems who can play a huge role for your fantasy team.

Today, we're looking at some late-round first basemen for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a late-round sleeper draft target that you're going to want to prioritize? Read on to see our take.

Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2022 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all of our in-depth 2022 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2022 Draft Kit.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants' first baseman Brandon Belt continues to crush baseballs. He finished 2021 with a .274 avg, 29 home run(s), 59 run(s) batted in, 65 run(s), three stolen base(s), and a 3.3 fWAR across 381 plate appearances. Belt produced a career-high 17% barrel rate and has managed a 150 plus wRC+ in each of the last two seasons. He managed a 70 plus percentile score in max exit velocity, hard-hit %, xwOBA, xSLG, barrel %, and BB%. Belt has more swing and miss than anticipated with a 26th percentile whiff % but his 94th percentile chase rate and 90th percentile BB% outline elite plate discipline that should remain. The recent production from Belt is no misnomer considering his elite barrel rate and plate discipline.

The issue is health. Belt has suffered from various injuries throughout his career. ATC projects Belt for 505 PA, 26 HRs, 69 RBIs, 72 runs scored, and three stolen bases. The plate appearance projection seems high. Belt has only topped 550 PA four times in eleven seasons. His current ADP sits at 268 which has him going after Jonathan Schoop and before Frank Schwindel. Considering Belt's elite discipline and barrel rate over the last two seasons he should be going next to Anthony Rizzo who is being selected around ADP 170. That said, there is obvious injury risk with Belt so fantasy managers know what they are signing up for.

-- Jacob Taylor - RotoBaller

 

Bobby Dalbec, Boston Red Sox

There is reason for optimism with the Red Sox big man this season. The power has never been in question, and he posted an elite home run rate in 2022 (25 homers in 452 PAs). The downside thus far has been the huge strikeout problem (career 35.8% K%) that has kept his batting average in the dumps. We saw Dalbec start to slightly turn this trend around in the second half of 2021 as he struck out at a lower 28.8% clip from August 1st onward.

That is still a problematic strikeout rate that is unlikely to lead to anything but a bad batting average, but there is some hope that he can hit enough homers and drive in enough runs to make that worth the trade. His 20.2% barrel rate and 115.6 max exit velocity last year leave no doubts that this guy can hit 40 homers in the show, and that's someone that is worth taking a shot at age 26 with a low ADP of 224.

-- Jon Anderson - RotoBaller

 

Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers

After the dust settled, Lowe put up a pretty solid line in his first season as a Ranger. He scored 74 runs, hit 18 homers, drove in 72, stole eight bases, and hit a respectable .264. His expected high walk rate kept his on-base percentage high at .354 as well. He did all of that while largely avoiding the spotlight. The one thing that stood out about Lowe is how low his homer total seems when you consider that he posted a better-than-average 9.5% barrel rate and 113.9 max exit velocity.

The issue there was the crazy high 55% GB%. We know that ground-ball rate is somewhat sticky, but it is not crazy at all to see major shifts in a player's batted ball profile from year-to-year. This makes Lowe a guy that could flirt with 25 homers if he can get a few more balls into the air. What we have here is a late-round first baseman that does a little bit of everything, and I think there's some unrealized ceiling in here as well. In on-base percentage leagues, he's a great value that you can get after pick 225, and he's only 26 years old. Sign me up for some Nate Lowe this year.

-- Jon Anderson - RotoBaller



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Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
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Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

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Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
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LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
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Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
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Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
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to Miss Rest of Regular Season
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Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
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Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
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Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
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Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
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Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
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Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
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Returns to Spurs
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Rejoins Timberwolves
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Moves to Brooklyn
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Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
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Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
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Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
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Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
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Receives New Offer From Warriors
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Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
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Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
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Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
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Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

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Mackenzie Blackwood

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Spencer Knight

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