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Jamie Steed's fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2025 MLB season, including predictions for Mike Trout, Joe Ryan, Austin Wells, Dylan Crews and more.
Bold predictions can be the key to fantasy seasons. Predicting players who will outperform or underperform expectations by extreme amounts can win leagues. Bold predictions can also be entirely unhelpful, speculative thoughts that are just fun to consider.
And the latter is what these are! Sort of. I won't tell you I think Paul Skenes will record 200 strikeouts this year. That's not exactly bold now, is it? I think these predictions have a legitimate chance of occurring this year, but I'm not banking on them.
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Mike Trout Plays 150 Games and Finishes in the Top-3 for the AL MVP
No one is doubting Trout's talent. Sadly, health has let him down in recent years. Trout has only played 266 games across the last four seasons, and 119 of those were in 2022. Despite playing just 111 games in the last two years, Trout still hit 28 homers with a 135 wRC+.
Trout's .220 batting average last year might suggest that injuries have taken their toll and that he is no longer the hitter he once was. While that is partially true, Trout had a .194 BABIP and it was only a 29-game sample. Not nearly enough to be worried about.
The Angels are moving Trout to right field to keep him healthier. He's 33 years old, so he's not over the hill yet. If Trout avoids the IL over an entire season, he will put up elite numbers. Trout knows this more than anyone.
"I just got to be out there, and that's the whole mindset coming into the year."
Mike Trout is back and ready for a healthy 2025 season. 💪 #Angels | #SpringTrainingTour
🔗 https://t.co/3lNMHjejQd pic.twitter.com/nxs3FKed3P— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) March 2, 2025
It all boils down to health. Can Trout stay on the field long enough to remind everyone why he was the face of baseball? Can he roll back the years for an MVP-caliber season? Probably not. But I believe he has one more year of health in him. If it's this year, we'll remember 2025 as the year Trout was a star reborn.
Dylan Crews is a Top-10 Outfielder
Teammate James Wood is garnering most of the attention in the nation's capital, and justifiably so. While Crews lacks the power upside that Wood has, Crews shouldn't be overlooked. He still hit three homers in 31 MLB games last year, so it's not like Crews has no power.
A bit more loft and a bit more pop should see Crews hit 20 homers. And the speed isn't in question. Crews ranked in the 93rd percentile for sprint speed last year. His 12 stolen bases in 31 games should leap off the page at you, and 40 steals this year shouldn't be ruled out.
Crews had a 57.4 percent GB% (ground ball rate) in the majors last year. Markedly higher than his 42.1 percent GB% in the minors last year before his promotion. Crews has the speed to beat out plenty of ground balls. But if he can hit more line drives and fly balls, he can expect a batting average north of .250.
A top-10 finish at the position for a rookie might seem like a lofty expectation. That's because it is. Considering Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio achieved it last season, it's not like we don't have a recent precedent of rookie outfielders excelling. Add Crews's name to that list after this season.
Austin Wells is a Top-5 Catcher
I was in on Wells taking a huge step forward before he emerged as a candidate to lead off for the Yankees. Hitting in front of Aaron Judge is enough to move anyone up the rankings. Wells has enough ability in the batter's box, regardless of where he hits in the lineup.
His first full season in the majors might not seem like Wells achieved much. In 115 games, he hit .229/.322/.395 with 13 homers, 55 RBI, 42 runs, and one stolen base. But Wells improved as the season wore on and emerged as the number one backstop in the Bronx.
From June 5, Wells hit .242/.338/.437 with 12 homers, 50 RBI, 32 runs, and no steals with 121 wRC+. Compare that to the .196/.282/.294 and 66 wRC+ Wells had before June 5. Something clicked, and Wells found himself hitting cleanup in July. Yes, there are a couple of red flags.
Wells had a disappointing September (22 wRC+) and postseason (31 wRC+). His numbers against lefties (.197/.299/.227) aren't great. But Wells is set to have a fantasy-friendly spot in the Yankees lineup, and without much competition in the position, he is a candidate for a breakout season.
Austin Wells hits another homer from the leadoff spot. Here's why Aaron Boone is seriously considering Wells at the top of the order: https://t.co/5Fa4M2kPsG
— Bryan Hoch ⚾️ (@BryanHoch) March 10, 2025
Christian Encarnacion-Strand Hits 40 Homers
I appear to be one of many "Encarnacion-Stans," expecting the Reds infielder to have a big season. I've written about him on more than one occasion this preseason, and I'll keep banging the drum for the slugger throughout the draft season. And beyond.
After homering 13 times in 63 games with the Reds following his 2023 promotion, everyone was on board the Encarnacion-Strand hype train heading into last year. Unfortunately, a wrist injury after being hit by a pitch limited him to 29 games. Now, the carriages have all but emptied.
This is the same Encarnacion-Strand who hit 32 home runs in 122 minor league games in 2022. The very same Encarnacion-Strand hit 20 home runs in 67 Triple-A games before getting promoted to the Majors in 2023. So why shouldn't he have a big season in 2025?
I'm not concerned about a crowded roster for the Reds. The same was said going into 2024. How'd that turn out? Santiago Espinal (391), Stuart Fairchild (233), Ty France (195), and Nick Martini (163) combined for 982 plate appearances. Jacob Hurtubise and Mike Ford combined for 130 plate appearances.
There are more than enough at-bats to go around. And no one in Cincinnati has the power potential that Encarnacion-Strand possesses. Providing he doesn't take any more fastballs to the wrist, Encarnacion-Strand will put up numbers many were hoping for in 2024.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand absolutely destroys his 3rd HR this spring!#Reds GM Brad Meador had joined the broadcast and talks about CES after the homer. pic.twitter.com/pwACOr3mcq
— Chatterbox Sports (@CBoxSports) March 8, 2025
Colt Keith Is A Top-10 Second Baseman
At a position lacking much depth, seeing Keith drafted outside the top 20 seems weird. His rookie season went largely unnoticed, with a .260/.309/.380 slash line, 13 home runs, 61 RBI, 54 runs, and seven stolen bases. His 97 wRC+ fails to highlight that Keith had a solid year.
His season-long numbers were largely suppressed by a poor April. Not surprising that a rookie struggled in his first month in the majors. By May 1, Keith had a .154/.222/.165 slash line and 11 wRC+. He was still searching for his first big league home run.
From May 1, Keith hit .282/.328/.426 with 115 wRC+. That was more similar to his minor league career .300/.382/.512 slash line. I also believe Keith will hit at least .280 in 2025. After hitting 27 homers in 126 minor league games in 2023, we can expect more power this year, too.
Despite Comerica Park not being ideal for hitting, I can see Keith reaching the 20-homer mark this year. He's set to move to first base following the Tigers' signing of Gleyber Torres. Spencer Torkelson can fill in as designated hitter, so playing time for Keith isn't a worry.
With few standout options at the position, Keith demonstrated enough last year to warrant being drafted in any format this year. There's no reason we don't see improved numbers now that he is established as a major-league hitter. Keith is set to make fantasy managers wish they had taken a punt on him.
Matt Shaw has a 20/20 Season and is a Top-5 Third Baseman
Another hitter and another rookie I've been in on all preseason, I have higher hopes for Shaw in 2025. Shaw seemed to be anointed as the Cubs' everyday third baseman during the offseason. A solid spring (albeit with limited game time) has solidified that sentiment.
Craig Counsell announces that Matt Shaw will be traveling to Japan. pic.twitter.com/ev7rkPpydU
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) March 11, 2025
Shaw ended 2024 as the Cubs' number-one prospect. Understandable after he hit .284/.379/.488 with 21 homers, 71 RBI, 78 runs, and 31 steals in 121 games across Double-A and Triple-A. The pedigree for a 20/20 season is certainly within Shaw's profile.
As well as hitting for average, showing some pop, and displaying his wheels, Shaw also showed good plate discipline. His 18.2 percent K% would have ranked in the 72nd percentile in the Majors last year. Shaw's 11.9 percent BB% would have ranked in the 93rd percentile.
While we will likely see some regression in both the walk and strikeout rates, Shaw's hit tool is ready for the majors. There aren't many third-base options that can steal 20 bases, and if Shaw can hit the ground running, we may see a Rookie of the Year season from him.
Tyler Fitzgerald has a 20/20 Season and is a Top-10 Shortstop
While the 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases aspect might not be a big stretch, Fitzgerald is currently being drafted outside the top 20 shortstops. Such is the strength in depth at the position. But Fitzgerald seems to be going underrated in drafts this spring.
In 96 games last year, Fitzgerald hit 15 homers and stole 17 bases. That power/speed combination was on display in the minor leagues, too. Fitzgerald had 22 home runs and 32 stolen bases in 121 games in 2023. In 2022, he hit 21 homers with 20 steals (125 games).
Fitzgerald will move away from the shortstop position following the Giants' signing of Willy Adames. Adames is, coincidentally, the 10th-ranked shortstop in NFBC drafts. Fitzgerald is set to operate as the Giants' second baseman, and his versatility should mean he stays on the field almost every day.
Projections aren't kind on Fitzgerald's batting average. None have him hitting above .240, which seems a bit harsh. Fitzgerald hit .280 last year in the majors. In 2023, across Double-A and Triple-A, Fitzgerald hit .292. His .227 xBA (expected batting average) is a concern.
What isn't a concern is Fitzgerald's 30.0 ft/sec sprint speed, which was one of the fastest marks in baseball last year. That will allow him to leg out the ground balls and outperform his xBA again. If Fitzgerald can hit 20 homers this year, a 20/40 season isn't out of the question, and that will far outperform his ADP.
Joe Ryan Wins the AL Cy Young Award
Ryan has shown flashes of his talents. Sadly, he's not quite been able to stay on the field long enough for people to see how good he is. Over the last three seasons, Ryan has averaged 26 starts and 148 innings. His numbers in that time have been very good.
Ryan has a 31-25 W-L record, 3.92 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 495 Ks (443 2/3 IP) since 2022. Nothing is outstanding, but the numbers are noteworthy if we look a little deeper. Ryan has a 27.3 percent K% since 2022. That's the seventh-best of the 55 pitchers with at least 400 IP over the last three years.
Couple that with his 5.7 percent BB% in that time (which ranks as the eighth-best), and Ryan provides excellent strikeout numbers while providing very few free passes. Only Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler can boast a better K-BB% than Ryan (21.6 percent) among those 55 pitchers.
Ryan can also count himself a bit unlucky with his ERA. Last year, Ryan had a 3.60 ERA, 3.44 xFIP, and 3.28 SIERA. His 2.87 xERA ranked in the 91st percentile. With a little bit of luck and a little bit more health, Ryan will certainly be in the conversation for an AL Cy Young Award this year.
Clay Holmes Leads the Mets in... Saves
There can be no doubt that Holmes is a spring Cy Young candidate. Many rolled their eyes when the Mets announced that they planned on using Holmes as a starter this year. His spring has been so good that the Mets announced him as their Opening Day starter.
Carlos Mendoza announces that Clay Holmes will be the Mets' Opening Day starter:
"He earned it. We like what we're seeing." pic.twitter.com/2FDfGUx8uJ
— SNY (@SNYtv) March 14, 2025
Holmes was a starter in the minors so it's not like he's never done that role. We just know of him as a reliever due to the success he's had out of the bullpen in the majors. This would therefore seem to be my most outlandish prediction. This is how I believe things will play out.
Holmes will start the season on fire. He'll have a sub-2.00 ERA after his first handful of starts. The victory laps on social media get out of control. They're not the only things that get out of control. Holmes's 10.5 percent BB% in the majors will begin to manifest itself. He begins to walk too many batters.
After a few rough outings, concerns about Holmes' workload surface. Given his career-high is 70.0 IP in the majors, the Mets begin considering moving Holmes back into a relief role for more rest. His final start in May sees Holmes walk six batters in less than three innings.
Meanwhile, Edwin Diaz is having his own struggles in the closer role. As we saw in May 2024, Diaz will blow three straight save opportunities, and the Mets will then look to give him more low-leverage work to get back on track. That opens the door for Holmes to begin closing games.
Holmes settles into a more familiar role and thrives. Without wanting to upset what is working, Diaz continues as the setup man with Holmes recording a fourth consecutive season of at least 20 saves. The Mets still miss out on a playoff spot on the final day of the regular season.
Before you question any of this, let's not forget that this is the Mets we are talking about. Things like this are possible, if not probable.
Holmes has made four starts as a major-league pitcher, walking 13 batters in 15 IP. Between 2012 and 2018, Holmes was a starting pitcher in the minors. During those six years (he missed the 2014 season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery), he walked 270 batters in 565 innings.
Holmes had an 11.2 percent BB% before becoming a full-time reliever in the 2019 season. Yes, Holmes is a different pitcher than he was back then. But even in spring, Holmes has an 11.4 percent BB% after three appearances. It's a tiny sample for sure, but the numbers don't lie.
If you really think about it, not much would need to happen outside the realms of possibility for this to come to fruition. Two pitchers struggling enough that we see a change in their roles is all we're talking about. We see it every year, including last year for the Mets, and 2025 will be no different.
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