RADIO
Byron's free PGA betting picks for the 2024 Sentry. Breaking $100 is a golf betting guide, using $100 across various bets.
HAPPY NEW YEAR to you and yours! It was a great year for us in the placement market, now profiting in that area of betting three of the last four years. The outright market, however, well, let's just say that our new year's resolution for this article is find less guys who finish second and more guys who finish first? Either way, it is going to be a fantastic time getting to bet on golf with you in 2025.
Hawaii has a special place in my heart as I went there for my honeymoon and 5-year anniversary. It's special because I am utterly shocked that Mrs. Maniac is still by my side after five years. Jokes aside, we are at Kapalua Plantation Course this week where birdies will be flying, score to par defenders will be crying and golf fans on new coaches, clubs and caddies be spying. It's a very exciting time of the year after a well deserved break for golfers and content creators alike!
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights $14.13
This year we are going to be aiming to make $50 per outright win, as we have to make sure we stay disciplined in a market that has historically been a bit of a money pit for us. I say this with full transparency so that you can also reflect on your own betting history and determine which areas you are successful in and some areas that have proven tough to profit in. This way, we have more of our $100 left to throw straight heat at the placement and matchup markets where we strike out bets like a sweaty Aroldis Chapman in his prime! We are also hitching each ways to the majority of these bets to avoid heart break when they don't quite get the win but come close.
Sahith Theegala +3000 $1.26 X2
Speaking of throwing heat, Sahith Theegala is one of the most volatile golfers on the putting greens. Just in 2024 he had six events where he gained 3.5+ strokes putting and finished T12 or better in those starts including two runner-up finishes at the Sentry (wink wink) and the RBC Heritage. Would you believe me if I said we had him outright for both his second-place finishes? (Sad face). However, this man is capable of high-end finishes and he seems to enjoy Kapalua, playing here for his third time now after a debut in 2023 where he finished 33rd. Three of those top 12 finishes have also come in his seven last starts, so his form, although inconsistent, is lurking beneath the waves of the Pacific Ocean, ready to emerge as the Kapalua creature nightmares are made of for other PGA professionals.
By the way, this information in the screenshot above is the (Interactive Player Profile Page) that is part of the >>Model Maniac Tools<<!
Byeong Hun An +4000 $0.97 x2
Benny An finds himself at 40-1 which is only 25 points shorter than his 65-1 ticket here last year when he finished fourth and if there is any golfer to bet a top-5 each way on along with the outright, it is Benny! He has returned $187 in the top-5 market in 2024 with four top end finishes in his breakout year. He has found his putter since switching to the broomstick and now he heads to the Sentry, where he gained +2.6 strokes on the greens when he finished 4th here last year. He also then went on to gain +3.4 strokes putting at the Sony (another Hawaii course) where he has finished T2 and T12 in his two appearances. His strokes gained Hawaii is grading out really well I would say. Aloha Benny!!!
Davis Thompson +5000 $0.78 X2
The John Deere Classic champion (my 5th major as a native Iowan) heads to Kapalua for the first time in his career. He has been an absolute menace tee-to-green when he has found his groove, eclipsing 9 strokes four times in his last 10 starts that include that JDC win, a T2 at the Rocket, T9 at the US Open and T5 at the Shriners. He has incredible spike potential and has returned $122 in the top-5 market were you to bet to win $100 every time he teed it up. It's his most profitable market too, so we are pairing up our outrights with high end top-5 probabilities too. Davis will be looking to insert himself into the conversation as an elite golfer in 2025 and we want to get ahead of that with him on our card at 50-1.
Akshay Bhatia +4000 $0.98
We found a rogue 40-1 on FanDuel which doesn't offer each ways, but, Akshay really hasn't had a top 5 since the Rocket Mortgage where he broke our hearts with a three putt on the final hole to miss a playoff vs Cam Davis. This outright card is truly a reminder of all the tragedies piled into 2024, but 2025 looms large and we are expecting the pendulum of good fortune to swing back our way. We know this man is capable of going absolutely nuclear though, as his 21.15 strokes gained in his win at Valero grades out as the fourth best total strokes gained in a PGA event since 2017.
J.T. Poston +4500 $0.98 x2
Poston has found some impressive success in Hawai over his career with a sixth at the Sony and a t5 at the Sentry last year to add to his four other top-21s he has amassed here in 9 events. He also enters the week with some stellar form, having won the Shriners and finishing T5 at the RSM Classic to close out the season. We get a tidy 45-1 on a perennial winner on tour who seems to have found his slumbering groove that can turn into a war path if he continues to strike his irons like he has the last couple starts. He has gained 5+ strokes putting in three of his last 11 starts, which also bodes well for his week ahead!
Max Greyserman +5000 $0.77 X2
Hello top-5 juggernaut, Max Greyserman! He has four top-5s in his last half dozen starts and seems to be a perfect course fit here given his putting precision he has exhibited this year! Over the last 100 rounds he grades out as the fourth-best putter in this field and is in some incredible form heading into 2025. Another top-5 mini-hedge here by grabbing the each way!
Jhonnatan Vegas +17500 $0.29 x2
Since Vegas is sitting at 175-1 we will simply say that when he played here last in 2018, he finished T7 and really wasn't entering or leaving this event in any form to speak of. It suits his booming drives and unreliable short game with green in regulation rates sitting in the 80s!
Jake Knapp +20000 $0.19
Booming drives? Hello Jake Knapp! He won in Mexico which is a VERY similar golf course given his skillset of immense distance and ability to get hot with his wedges and putter. He just won the Grant Thornton mixed event which proves that there is at least some semblance of form returning now that he seems to have rested/repaired? his wrist heading into the fall break. Love the number and course fit for our guy we hit an outright on earlier in the year!
Placements $55.65
Our bread and butter market and now you have the tool that I use to return profits three of the last four years betting on much less risky bets than outrights! You can just head over to the RotoBaller website and then right click the "MANIACS PLACEMENT TOOL" tab once you are on the screen below (or click >>HERE<< to go straight to the tool) to make your own copy in a new sheet. Enter your odds you have available on golfers you want to bet on and see if there is an edge! Simple as that! Happy betting!
Now, for some of the placement bets we are rolling with this week and we are starting off with a truly hilarious bet that made us a bunch of money last year.
Xander Schauffele $30 Top 10 -150 (ties paid in full Bet365)
He has returned $612 in the top 10 market in 2024 which simply laughable. We now get him at -150 which has drifted nicely since opening bell, which implies a 60% probability rate, but we know that using our tool above, his top 10 rate for 2024 was 72%. So, that is edge #1. Edge number #2 is that he is easily the best golfer in the field now that Rory and Scottie are not playing. Edge #3 is that he has finished 12th or better five times in his last six trips here, with his only poor finish being a WD in 2023 with a bad back. He has cashed this bet 4 of 6 times (66%) at this event and now returns playing the best golf of his career!
Sam Burns $10 Top 10 +200 (Bet MGM ties paid in full)
We are grabbing Burns in his most profitable market in 2024, returning $344 in the top 10 market, finishing inside the top 10 in half his final eight starts last year. He doesn't tend to make his way into the top 5 all that much, actually losing in that market, but we know that he finds his happy place in the top 10 and we will be betting him here regardless of his best finish only being a 19th at Kapalua. He has a 43% top 10 rate and this bet is implying it only happens 33% of the time. He also grades out really well for me in my model as top 3 option this week.
Wyndham Clark $8 Top 10 +275 (Bet365)
Clark has hemorrhaged profits in the top-20 market but has been rather profitable in the top-10 side of things with three of them in his half dozen final starts of the year. He suits this venue quite well with his distance and putting ability, but if he loses 4 strokes with his irons and putter like he did last year, this bet is dead. We are hoping that his second trip to this venue returns a better finish than the T29 last year.
Taylor Pendrith $7.15 +320 (Bet365)
I am sure you are noticing a trend here, targeting these golfers who have weird dispersions of profits in the different markets, as most books tend to price their golfers uniformly, which gives us opportunities to bet on Taylor Pendrith's who make books money in the Top 5 and WIN markets, but the public cashes in on his top-10 bets which have returned $233 last year.
Jake Knapp $0.50 Top 5 +3300 (FanDuel as an each way on our outright)
Matchups $25.22
We are rolling out two matchups using our matchup tool that you can find >>HERE<<.
Denny McCarthy OVER Will Zalatoris - ROUND 1 - $11.22 (-115 @ DraftKings)
Denny McCarthy has the same odds vs Will Zalatoris who grades out significantly worse than Denny in R1 compared to tournament long. So, we are going to go with that bet instead for R1.
Taylor Pendrith OVER Matt Fitzpatrick - TOURNAMENT - $14 (-140 @ DraftKings)
The last time Matt Fitzpatrick gained 3 strokes in a tournament was the Memorial half a year ago. Taylor Pendrith has gained 8+ strokes three times over the same time period!
The Farewell Fiver $5
The usual first round split into $1 for each leg of the round robin (3's x 4) and the 4-legger +2820 bet!
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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