X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free PGA Betting Picks - Breaking $100 Golf Best Bets for the 2024 BMW Championship

Byron's free PGA betting picks for the 2024 BMW Championship. Breaking $100 is a golf betting guide, using $100 across various bets. Where are the best bets this week?

Fifty golfers head to the mile high mountains with expectations of some of them higher than the white crested peaks of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Only thirty golfers will advance to the Tour Championship next week, FedEx Cup points leaving a very good chance of Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele sitting at -10 and -8 before a shot gets hit next week.

We are going to be playing a golf course that is 8,100 yards long, but at altitude will see the ball fly 10% further, shortening the course substantially. However, the nature of this course forces multiple layups off the tee and all of the Par 3s are 200+ yards long, making this a week where I am projecting a lot of shots from 175+ yards. We are looking for good drivers of the ball who can make the birdie putts the long irons afford them.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Recap of last Week

Another week, another donation to the outright betting market. Our placements basically broke even (-$0.77) while the outright bets continue to lay around on the couch hoping to get an A on the team project that the top-5, top-10 and top-20 markets are doing all the hard work on.

I have been selling myself short on the outright side of things lately, because I am EXTREMELY frustrated with this market once again. We have had a golfer finish 2nd NINE times this year. Without any close calls lately, those early-year runner ups are really starting to sting as we have lost -$209 betting outrights this year.

Let's look at the silver lining here, though. We have been CRUSHING the placement market this year, up $231 in that market which has kept us right around neutral profitability for the year. I would give up a lot to have had Benny An make that 4-footer in Hawaii or for Akshay to have not 3-putted on the 72nd hole in Detroit or for Chris Kirk to not produce one of the most flawless final rounds while holding the lead ahead of Sahith. But it is a new week and we are looking for a new golfer to hit an outright on.

Scottie Scheffler has broken our hearts in the outright market multiple times, but betting him T5 and T10 has profited $129.38, a 48% Return on Investment (ROI on $251 invested). His consistency in these high-end markets has been incredible and we are thankful for his services to our campaign. Hopefully we can win $26 this week to get ourselves back into the green for the year.

 

Outrights $10

Viktor Hovland $2.16 x2 +2000 

Well, well, it looks like Viktor Hovland is back from his journey of befriending aliens and new swing coaches alike. Despite some really lack luster performances from the Norwegian, only Scottie Scheffler has driven the ball better than Hovland lately. In his last three rounds at TPC Southwind last week Hovland gained an average of +2.2 strokes on approach which may be good enough to rival Scheffler if this turns into an approach intensive venue.

This golf course has a lot of cross over between Augusta, Valhalla, Olympia Fields and touches of Kapalua. Hovland finished third at Valhalla earlier this year, his best finish of the season prior to last week's T2. If Vegas odds are correct at predicting the winning score of -23 this week, there will not be tons of chipping from those at the top of the leaderboard. Hovland needs to lean on his RotoBaller Striking in a big way this week to get himself across the line. He has gained the 5th most total strokes when removing his ARG (last) from his SG Total (23rd) metrics. It is not often a golfer grades out as the worst in the field for a core metric yet is priced +2000. If the aliens can abduct the ARG game this week and guide Viktor to a win, we will take it!

Wyndham Clark $1.23 X2 +3500

After Spencer has cashed in on two of Wyndham Clark's wins lately, we have decided to be on him for all of his runner up finishes and disastrous rounds. This week is going to be different. Clark finds himself in his home state of Colorado and playing on a course he has played countless times in his lifetime. Clark's resume took a massive hit with his really bad form after his second consecutive runner up finish to Scheffler at the PLAYERS in March. Outside of his T3 at the RBC Heritage his best finish in the seven other starts in that stretch was a T31. However, four of his last five starts have been T7, T14, T10, T9.

Clark appears to be back in form, with all areas of his game producing positive gains in those high-end finishes. In his last two starts at Le Golf National and TPC Southwind, he was 6% and 7% more accurate than the field at two venues that have some watery hazards all around the course, like we will see this week again. The magic maker is going to be his putter as he gained 7+ strokes putting in all three of his wins with the rest of his game playing a supporting role. Clark's putter in the last 16 rounds has gained a stroke per round, with his T10 in Scotland gaining that magical 7 strokes we are hoping to see peak in the majestic mountains of Colorado.

Billy Horschel $1.06 X2 +4000

If we look at Horschel's form from a mile high, it is not great, but if we maintain our altitude and let the Rocky Mountains organically zoom in on his recent form over the last 16 rounds, Billy Boy has gained the 7th most total strokes on this 50-man field. He is priced at 40-1 which is a little steep for Horschel's long-term form, but considering there are only 50 golfers in this field and the fact that he has a runner up at the Open, T7 at the Wyndham and a T10 at the St. Jude last week, we are willing block our nose on the number and hope that Horschel can get his motor mouth to the top of Castle Pines' mountains for us.

What is most enticing about Horschel is the fact that he has gained the sixth most strokes tee to green (L16) with his putter hanging out in the Scottie Scheffler range (25th). Horschel has historically been an exceptionally good putter, which we have seen in his last three starts, gaining at least two strokes putting in each 18-hole stroll.

Will Zalatoris $0.54 X2 +8000

If we are trying to catch lightning in a bottle with Viktor Hovland, we are grabbing the Willy Z tin foil catsuit, pitchfork, jam jar and running like Jon Snow into the eye of the storm to hopefully capture his second win on the PGA tour without a top-10 in any of his last dozen starts. However, in his last three starts he has gained in all three areas of tee-to-green stats while the putter left the Sedgefield Red Wedding and gained just shy of two strokes putting at TPC Southwind last week, gaining across the board for the first time since his T2 at the Genesis Invitational back in February.

If long irons and ball striking are going to play a major role here, that is what Zalatoris does best. I do fear that scores may get a little to low for Will, but on the off chance the winning score lands up in the mid-teens, this golf course will reward the skillset that Zalatoris has shown us at multiple majors in the past, particularly Augusta where he has career finishes of T9, T6 and 2nd. At +8000 we are getting a really large number on a golfer who has been making some large numbers this year, but that tinfoil catsuit is going to work its magic for us this week ... I hope.

 

Placings ($76.50)

We are going low volume, high probability this week with all three of our placement bets in the 60% implied probability range. However, our numbers suggest they should be well into the 70% range with edges of 9% or better for all three bets.

These are placement bets for the week, with some of them finding themselves on our outright card too.

Scottie Scheffler T5 $ 22.50 -150 

Xander Schauffele T10 $30 -200

Tony Finau T20 $24 -160

 

The Farewell Fiver ($5)

With no 3-balls to parlay together, we are going to take some stabs at the first round leader market again betting $1 on each of the following 5 golfers at Bet Rivers.

  • Max Greyserman +5000
  • Taylor Pendrith +5500
  • Cam Davis +6600
  • Eric Cole +6600
  • Thomas Detry +6600

Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

 

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF