RADIO
We were on Tom Kim the last time he won a tournament, but his odds at 12-1 were just not where we wanted to go. He had to shoot a Saturday 62 to get himself in the mix. But it is awesome to see the young Korean sensation racking up his third win of his 21-year-old life.
Eric Cole found his way into the top-5 with a Sunday 63, and JT Poston snuck us another T5 on the same card, bouncing back after a rough week last week. I agree with @TeeOffSports that until he figures out how to keep his ball in play. He may not see our outright card again.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights ($20)
After having a horrific week at the Sanderson Farms, we made a decent chunk of our money back last week, without hitting an outright. If you bet $100 on last week's event, we would have won $39.25.
We want to double our exposure we have in the outright market with our T5 bets, so that we can make a tiny bit of profit in this section of the article when our card succeeds but does not win. We are rolling out seven golfers at the Shriners Children's Open this week.
Xander Schauffele
- $10 +800 outright
- $10 +160 Top 8
Bet365 has Xander +800 but you are on the hook to bet the same amount on a top-8 finish at +160, which is basically what we do now a days in this section. We are not going to over think this thing this week. When somebody is the best on tour from a specific proximity bucket, and now tees it up on a course that emphasizes that proximity range, in a field that lacks a bunch of the usual talent he usually plays alongside, in a country he has won a gold medal in, and finally, a no cut event. It all just makes far too much sense.
Above is how I would project the proximity buckets to play out at this course, with roughly 40% of approach shots coming from 150-200 yards, with 67% of approach shots coming from 150 and out. Xander has the best strokes gained from 150-200 yards on the PGA Tour and if you can be the best on the PGA Tour and a golf course lets you do that a lot more than a typical tour stop, you simply have to assume that if Xander gets his irons dialed in and maintains his incredible form on the greens, he will be right in the mix come Sunday.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, models, projections and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($55)
Last week we returned $3.38 on our $40.
- $6 Eric Cole T20 +170 @ Bet365
- $6 J.T. Poston T20 +150 @ Bet365
- $5 Alex Smalley T20 +210 @ Bet365
- $5 Aaron Rai T20 +240 @ Bet365
- $7 Adam Svensson T40 -130 @ Bet365
- $6 Dylan Wu T40 +130 @ Bet365
- $5 Si Woo Kim + Andrew Putnam T40 PARLAY +150 @ Bet365
This Week's Placements
$10 +200 T10 Keegan Bradley
Teeing it up for the first time since his Ryder Cup snub at a tournament he will be defending his title at. Looks like the books will allow us to double our money with double the narratives to get behind Keegan, who, as we know, is a very emotional induvial and often uses that to play exceptional golf. He should be playing with a massive chip on his shoulder this week and season.
$10 +200 T10 Cam Davis
What if I told you we are getting 2-1 odds on a golfer to do something, that he has done in five of the last six starts? Well Cam Davis has finished T7, 3rd, 40, T6, T7, T10 in his last six starts since the 3M.
$10 +105 T20 Eric Cole
His iron play is incredible right now, but his inconsistent driver keeps him from reaching his potential as a PGA Tour winner! His putter has also been rather lack luster, having lost strokes putting in three consecutive after showing us he is capable of gaining incredible amounts with the flat stick in the past. I think there is greater than a 50% chance he finishes inside the top-20 in a 78-man field infused with some Japanese golfers and lower end Tour Members.
$25 -125 T30 Aaron Rai
Aaron is more of a floor guy than upside, so we are going to eat the juice on a T30 instead of hunting down the plus money T20. Rai has six top-30 finishes in his last 10 starts. Remember, there are only 78 golfers in this field, so a T30 in a no cut event really appeals to me for Rai.
Matchups ($20)
- $10 Aaron Rai over J.J. Spaun +125
- $13.5 Andrew Putnam over Lucas Herbert -134
- $11.50 Christiaan Bezuidenhout over Lucas Herbert -105
This week we are doing 3-balls for Round 1 (FanDuel)
- $5 +180 Sam Ryder OVER Dylan Wu, Michael Kim
- $5 +160 Adam Svensson OVER Adam Schenk, Lee Hodges
- $5 +180 Garrick Higgo OVER Emiliano Grillo, Davis Riley
- $5 +110 Mark Hubbard OVER Matthew NeSmith, Aguri Iwasaki
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Cam Champ $5 +700 Top 5 (BetMGM)
The post man did deliver and we cashed our J.T. Poston FOMO Farewell Fiver @ +550. Cameron Champ has been flirting with the top of the leaderboard early in tournaments. His iron play becomes significantly better the further from the hole they are, which this course should suit him quite nicely. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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