RADIO
Erik Van Rooyen went scorched earth on the back 9 in Mexico, shooting a 28 on the back side of the course clinching the event with a walk off eagle putt at the last. He not only punched our ticket into the winners circle doing so, but he also showed us that golf is just a small cog in the intricate machine of life, and playing with no weight on his shoulders because his friend Jon is fighting and losing a much more fatal fight off the course, helped put it all into perspective for us watching.
An inspiring win by my fellow countryman, who I thought would be inspired by our Rugby World Cup winning Springboks, but spurred on by his best friend being informed that he is living his last few weeks, was motivation that powered a fairytale ending to a round of golf that was simply mesmerizing. Congratulations to Erik once again for a very special win for him and his family and friends.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Prior Week Recap ($20)
By betting our $100 last week, we have profited $181.82 on last week's card. We made money in all sections of the article except for a risky 4-leg parlay in the farewell fiver section.
Outrights ($20)
Weather can reek havoc at this venue, and as a result we have pocketed a decent chunk of our outright card to live add somebody down the leaderboard who will get a favorable weather draw after Thursday has run its course. Stay tuned for my live adds in the discord or on twitter.
Lucas Glover 30-1 (Betrivers)
This was a bit of a number grab at 30-1 and the best number out there is a 25-1 which I still appealing considering the quality of wins Lucas Glover has on his very recent resume. He seems to have stumbled upon some magic with the broomstick putter and now in his possession. He ended the season with two wins on the back of a revived putter and opened the fall swing last week with a T59. If he finds that putter again, this kind of course suits his blue-collar ball striking profile that lacks length but possesses the kind of consistency that could put a Keegan Bradley preshot routine in a sleepy trance. The Blue-collar ball striker will look to machine a score in the Bermuda winds in a weak field seeking his third win in six starts.
Lanto Griffin 65-1 (BetMGM)
Lanto Griffin has a lone appearance at Port Royal Golf Course that ended in a T18 which meshes well with his resurgent fall swing form that includes a T13 and a T28. A 65-1 price tag on a guy whose short game specialties could prove really useful in the Bermuda breezes that batter the exposed Port Royal Golf Course. We get a bunch of value here on a really talented golfer who has been trying to find his game that is capable of winning an event like the Bermuda where he has proved to play well in the past. If we get a spike approach week in some gusty winds, Lanto will be right in the mix.
Troy Merrit 66-1 (BetRivers)
We finally get Merritt on a course he has typically played well at in the past. He has had success at Detroit GC, Sea Island (Seaside), TPC Southwind, El Camaleon GC and Pebble Beach which are all comp courses that have him averaging +0.85 in his 72 rounds on these various courses. Only 5 other golfers in the field average better strokes gained numbers on these courses than Merritt. We also know he has had a tough time putting this season, and after two impressive finishes at the Fortinet and Sanderson Farms the putter seems to have let him down a little in his last two starts. If the putter bounces back we can expect him to be at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Kramer Hickock 90-1 (FanDuel)
Kramer Hickock is coming off a T15 finish in Mexico last week and now heads to a course he has had some really inspired finishes at. In his last four Bermuda Championships he has finished MC, T30, T8 and T15. If we can find some surging recent form on a course that he is familiar with, 90-1 seems like a fair price to pay for both of those traits entering the week. Hickock's game is all over the place, but maybe the familiarity on a Bermuda course can pull together the best parts of his game to converge in a victorious collision of complimentary golf.
Brian Gay 250-1 (each way 6 places)
Brian Gay hosts the best course history at this venue as well as the best comp course history for venues like this. The fact that he plays most of his golf on the champions tour is a reservation we may have, but he has been routinely recording top-10 finishes on that retired but rewired Champions tour keeping his competitive touch deft, in search of another win around Port Royal Golf Course. Gay has finishes of T11, T12, WIN, T3 in his four appearances so far. These odds are way off considering his track record at a venue like this.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($55)
Last week: +$44
- Davis Thompson $12 +220 T20
- Keith Mitchell $12 +200 T20
- Sam Ryder $12 +280 T20
- Kevin Yu $4 +400 T20
This week
- $8 Adam Scott T20 +100
- $8 Justin Lower T30 +125
- $8 Kramer Hickock T40 +115
- $8 Peter Malnati T40 +120
- $8 Russell Knox T40 +120
- $8 Brian Gay T40 +165
- $7 Brian Gay T20 +500
Matchups ($20)
- $20 Adam Scott OVER Lucas Herbert -140. It feels like as past champion of this event, Herbert is getting a little too much respect from the bookies. Adam Scott finishes much higher up the leaderboard much more regularly than Herbert, so we are going to treat this week the same as any other.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball Parlay $5 +3534 FD
Thomas Detry, Ryan Palmer, Doug Ghim, Troy Merritt and Alex Smalley will be our farewell fivers looking to kick start our week with a big cash in Round 1. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
Other Content By Byron
Back 9 Bets Podcast
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