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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize on this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We're treading water so far, going 11-12-1 on my betting picks so far, so we'll work on getting back in the green. Now let’s dig into my recommendations for July 8, 2023!
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O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: BOS -225
OAK: Paul Blackburn | BOS: James Paxton
We'll begin with a matchup between two last-place teams carrying divergent levels of hope. Major League Baseball's worst team, the Oakland Athletics, send Paul Blackburn to the hill with the goal of ending their two-game losing skid. They'll take on the Boston Red Sox, who sit at the bottom of the American League East. However, with a record north of .500, they find themselves very much alive in the AL Wild Card race. James Paxton will look to build off his impressive return to form and secure a fourth consecutive victory for the Sox.
Paul Blackburn has been one of the few competent arms in the Oakland rotation this season. He sports a middling 4.50 ERA through seven starts, but the underlying numbers suggest he's pitching much better than that. Blackburn boasts a strong 3.59 xERA, including a .364 xSLG, 5.6% barrel rate, .297 xwOBA, 87.7 MPH average exit velocity, and 31.1% hard-hit rate. Boston presents a challenging matchup, but they are not one of the league's elite offenses, carrying a barely-above-average 103 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
On the flip side, James Paxton takes the mound for the Red Sox. Despite having pitched a grand total of 21 2/3 innings between 2020-2022, Paxton looks about as good as he ever has in 2023. Through nine starts, he boasts a 2.70 ERA, which his advanced metrics support. Paxton owns a 3.29 xERA, 3.29 xFIP, .285 xwOBA, .216 xBA, .375 xSLG, 6.6% walk rate, and 31.1% strikeout rate. He's dominating the competition and draws one of the easiest opponents possible. Oakland has posted an awful .675 OPS and 92 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Further, the Athletics recently lost Esteury Ruiz to the injured list, one of their most reliable offensive performers.
Though it may not feature elite names, this matchup has the making of a pitching duel. Paxton should have no problem with this Oakland lineup, and Blackburn is due for positive regression. The Red Sox are always capable of catching fire, but I suspect these teams fail to combine for 10 runs.
Pick: Under 9.5 Total Runs (-115) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Royals @ Guardians
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CLE -180
KC: Brady Singer | CLE: Gavin Williams
Moving on to Cleveland, where another mismatch is set to take place. The Guardians took the first two games of the series by a total of a 9-1 advantage, and I anticipate a similar outcome today. The Royals have dropped five games in a row, following up a 6-20 record they posted in June. They now carry a .281 winning percentage overall and are the only team in the majors that rival the Athletics for the worst record. Conversely, the Guardians are on a different trajectory, winning 12 of their last 18 contests. For numerous reasons, it's a good spot to bet on Cleveland.
Brady Singer gets the nod for Kansas City, having the worst campaign of his four-year career. Through 17 starts, Singer carries a 5.52 ERA, and the underlying numbers are just as bad. Singer sports a 5.44 xERA, consisting of a .470 xSLG, .282 xBA, .358 xwOBA, 9.4% barrel rate, 91.8 MPH average exit velocity, and 52.1% hard-hit rate. Cleveland hasn't been one of the league's top offenses this overall this season, but they're scoring a much-improved 4.7 runs per game since the beginning of June, including a .755 OPS and 109 wRC+.
On the other side, Gavin Williams will make his fourth career start on Saturday. He's baseball's third-ranked pitching prospect and 12th-ranked overall prospect, per MLB Pipeline. Through Williams' first three outings, he's posted a respectable 3.79 ERA, including tossing seven shutout innings against the Royals two weeks ago. Growing pains are inevitable, but Williams carries the pedigree to succeed again in this matchup. The Royals own a league-worst 76 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, alongside a similarly terrible .651 OPS. They recently lost Vinnie Pasquantino for the year and have struggled to find any production outside of Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez.
Looking beyond the starting pitchers, the gap in bullpens could not be much wider. Kansas City's bullpen carries an atrocious 5.08 ERA this season, the second-worst in the majors. Conversely, Cleveland's 3.06 bullpen ERA is the best in baseball. It's just further evidence that the Guardians should be considered decisive favorites today. These two teams are trending in opposite directions at this point, and I'm comfortable picking the Guardians to win with breathing room to spare.
Pick: Guardians -1.5 Run Line (+115) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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