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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize on this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We're above water so far, going 11-10-1 on my betting picks so far! Now let’s dig into my recommendations for June 24, 2023!
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O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TEX -130
TEX: Jon Gray | NYY: Luis Severino
We'll begin in the Bronx with a game that looks more lopsided than its run line suggests. The Rangers took game one of the series 4-2, and they'll look to build on their first-place positioning in the AL West. The Yankees have stumbled since losing Aaron Judge earlier this month. They sit in third place in the AL East after losing six of their past eight contests. These two teams are trending in opposite directions, and I expect today to feature more of the same.
Jon Gray takes the mound for the Rangers, sporting a strong 2.96 ERA through 13 starts this season. He's overperformed this season, as evidenced by his 4.16 xERA and 4.37 xFIP. Still, Gray is a solid pitcher, inducing consistently weak contact with his 34.6% hard-hit rate, 6.8% barrel rate, and 88.5 MPH average exit velocity. He's coming off a tough outing against Toronto but had surrendered one run or fewer in six consecutive outings prior to that.
The Yankees score a middling 4.4 runs per game on the season. That includes a similarly underwhelming .706 OPS and 95 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Those figures factor in the presence of Aaron Judge, but they are simply not the same offense without him. Since Judge went down earlier this month, the Yankees have gone 7-9, scoring just 3.1 runs per game.
Luis Severino gets the nod for New York on Saturday. Since returning from injury, it's been tough sledding for Severino in 2023. Through six starts, he owns a 6.30 ERA, and the underlying numbers don't suggest he's performing any better than that. Severino sports a 6.35 xERA and 5.07 xFIP, including a .515 xSLG, 12.5% barrel rate, .285 xBA, .383 xwOBA, and 44.8% hard-hit rate. These are career-worst numbers across the board. He'll need to be on his best behavior against a scary Texas offense.
The Rangers lead the majors with their 6.1 runs per game mark. They sport a .787 OPS against right-handed pitching, the second-highest in the league, alongside a .187 ISO and 118 wRC+. Breaking away from the impressive numbers, names like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Adolis Garcia are quite imposing. Severino will have a tough time keeping this lineup quiet today.
This game features a remarkable mismatch of both pitching and offense. The peripherals all point to a decisive Rangers victory, and that's what I'm rolling with.
Pick: Rangers -1.5 Run Line (+135) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Red Sox @ White Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BOS -115
BOS: James Paxton | CHW: Lance Lynn
Moving on to Chicago, where a battle of the Soxes takes place. Boston enters play as winners of seven of their past nine contests and owners of a 40-37 overall record. On the flip side, the White Sox continue to flounder, sporting a disappointing 32-45 record. Game one of the series resulted in a 3-1 Red Sox victory, and I expect something similar to go down on Saturday.
Boston will start James Paxton today. Despite being limited to just 21 2/3 total innings pitched between 2020-2022, Paxton has performed remarkably well this season. Through seven starts, he's posted a 3.29 ERA. That includes a 3.39 xERA and 3.08 xFIP, consisting of a .214 xBA, .290 xwOBA, 7.1% walk rate, and 32.1% strikeout rate. Paxton is pitching about as well as he ever has in his career.
Chicago's offense has underwhelmed this season, scoring 4.1 runs per game. They've fared better against left-handed pitching, but that only amounts to a middling .728 OPS and 101 wRC+. The White Sox bring some capable hitters, between Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez, but it's a top-heavy offense. Paxton should be in line for a quality start today.
Lance Lynn takes the hill for the White Sox, coming off an impressive 16-strikeout performance against the Mariners. Outside of that anomaly of a game, it's been a rough season for the 36-year-old. He carries a terrible 6.51 ERA through 15 starts, though Lynn's advanced numbers suggest he's pitched somewhat better than that. Still, the numbers aren't pretty. Lynn sports a 4.87 ERA, which includes a .456 xSLG, .342 xwOBA, 10.4% barrel rate, and 41.3% hard-hit rate.
The Red Sox score a respectable 5.1 runs per game. That includes a strong .760 OPS and 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. They're without Alex Verdugo today, but this lineup still features an assortment of left-handed talent between Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, and Triston Casas. That's fortunate because Lance Lynn has been rocked by lefty hitters to the tune of a .659 slugging percentage, .445 wOBA, and 13 home runs.
Boston has all the advantages in this game. They bring the better offense and the better starting pitcher, and even their bullpen ERA is nearly a full point lower than the White Sox's. Everything suggests a Red Sox win today.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 Run Line (+135) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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