RADIO
We're right in the heart of draft season, so it's the perfect time to release my final PPR rankings. These are tiered rankings organized by position. My rankings prioritize upside and downgrade injury concerns. There are some players who I was previously high on, but was forced to downgrade due to injuries, such as Allen Robinson and D'Andre Swift. As with any rankings, remember to account for ADP in order to optimize your lineup!
In this article, I'll describe my reasoning behind a few players who I'm higher on than RotoBaller consensus, as well as others who I've ranked lower. I'll focus on players whose ranking discrepancy is more impactful, rather than just listing the players with the widest variance with RotoBaller consensus.
Below you'll find a few selections that will surely have you raising an eyebrow. Be sure to voice these concerns and come at me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ! I can assure you that I'll be ready to provide insights behind these selections and we can engage in debate.
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Quarterbacks
| Tier | Rank | QB | RotoBaller Rank |
| 1 | 1 | Deshaun Watson | 6 |
| 1 | 2 | Patrick Mahomes | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | Lamar Jackson | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | Dak Prescott | 3 |
| 2 | 5 | Russell Wilson | 5 |
| 2 | 6 | Kyler Murray | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | Matt Ryan | 8 |
| 3 | 8 | Carson Wentz | 10 |
| 3 | 9 | Daniel Jones | 14 |
| 3 | 10 | Joe Burrow | 20 |
| 3 | 11 | Josh Allen | 7 |
| 3 | 12 | Matthew Stafford | 13 |
| 4 | 13 | Tom Brady | 11 |
| 4 | 14 | Aaron Rodgers | 12 |
| 4 | 15 | Cam Newton | 27 |
| 4 | 16 | Drew Brees | 9 |
| 4 | 17 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 19 |
| 4 | 18 | Ryan Tannehill | 17 |
| 5 | 19 | Ben Roethlisberger | 15 |
| 5 | 20 | Drew Lock | 22 |
| 5 | 21 | Jared Goff | 18 |
| 5 | 22 | Gardner Minshew | 25 |
| 5 | 23 | Tyrod Taylor | 31 |
| 5 | 24 | Teddy Bridgewater | 28 |
| 5 | 25 | Baker Mayfield | 16 |
| 6 | 26 | Sam Darnold | 24 |
| 6 | 27 | Kirk Cousins | 21 |
| 6 | 28 | Derek Carr | 26 |
| 6 | 29 | Dwayne Haskins | 30 |
| 6 | 30 | Philip Rivers | 23 |
| 6 | 31 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 29 |
| 6 | 32 | Nick Foles | 33 |
| 7 | 33 | Tua Tagovailoa | 34 |
| 7 | 34 | Justin Herbert | 35 |
| 7 | 35 | Mitch Trubisky | 32 |
| 7 | 36 | Jalen Hurts | 41 |
| 7 | 37 | Jameis Winston | 37 |
| 7 | 38 | Andy Dalton | 38 |
| 7 | 39 | Jacoby Brissett | 39 |
| 7 | 40 | Jarrett Stidham | 36 |
QBs I'm Higher On
Joe Burrow (+10) checks off all the boxes that you want in a fantasy quarterback. He has a dynamic group of weapons in the passing game. He plays for a team with a weak defense. He's also a pro-ready prospect, so there won't be any playbook limitations. Burrow is going to make an immediate impact for the Bengals and he offers league-winning upside. Check out a more extensive look at Burrow's upside here.
Deshaun Watson (+5) now has an arsenal of deep-threats which align with one of his biggest strengths: downfield passing. He plays for a Texans' team with a porous defense which should increase his passing volume. His backfield consists of two backs more known for their receiving skills than running ability. It's the perfect storm for Watson to have a career year. I've laid out a more in-depth case for Watson at QB1 here.
Daniel Jones (+5) flashed significant upside as a rookie, putting up 25+ fantasy points in four games. He was able to do this despite never having all of his weapons on the field at the same time. Jones also has rushing upside, which raises his weekly floor. The Giants have a weak defense which will lead to several shootouts. You can check out more Jones talk here.
QBs I'm Lower On
Baker Mayfield (-9) is set for a bump in efficiency with an improved offensive line, but new head coach Kevin Stefanski looks poised to implement a more conservative offense that relies on the running game in an effort to mitigate Mayfield's turnover issues. Kirk Cousins attempted only 444 passes last season, so we can expect a similar number for Mayfield, who made 534 attempts last season. I just can't get behind that lack of volume.
Drew Brees (-7) is entering his age-41 season and has become more of a check-down passer. He threw 27 touchdowns on only 378 attempts last season, giving him a 7.1 TD%, which was the highest touchdown rate of his career. I just can't invest in an aging quarterback headed for significant touchdown regression, playing for a contending team that will likely limit his volume.
Josh Allen (-4) has the best supporting cast of his career with the additions of Stefon Diggs and Zack Moss. The problem is that much of his fantasy value is derived from his rushing touchdowns. Allen has rushed for eight or more touchdowns in the past two seasons - no quarterback has ever done that in three consecutive seasons, not even Cam Newton. Allen will need a bump in passing production to deliver fantasy value, but I can't bank on that given his struggles with accuracy.
Running Backs
RBs I'm Higher On
Jonathan Taylor (+5) has a terrific setup with the Colts, running behind the best offensive line in football. Concerns over Marlon Mack has created a buying opportunity. As another back with deficiencies in the passing game, Mack has a redundant skill-set to Taylor. The Colts would be wise to move Mack at the trade deadline. Simply put, Taylor is one of the best pure rookie runners we have seen in recent memory. Even if he gets off to a slow start, there's a high chance that he'll be considered an RB1 during the stretch run.
Josh Jacobs (+5) was an absolute stud as a rookie, but his passing game concerns have kept his draft stock lower than it should be. This is a player who is one of the most talented pure runners in football, ranking first on PFF's elusive rating. Jacobs has the upside to lead the league in rushing yards. Even with the signing of Theo Riddick, it's hard to imagine Jacobs not eclipsing the 20 receptions he posted as a rookie. Capitalize on the buying opportunity presented by concerns over receiving volume.
Aaron Jones (+4) is likely to be peppered with targets playing for a Packers team with limited weapons outside himself and Davante Adams. Jones is going to be a focal point of this offense, with gains in receiving volume helping off-set touchdown regression. This Packers team looks like the discount version of the Saints' offense, with Jones playing the role of Alvin Kamara.
RBs I'm Lower On
Leonard Fournette (-11) joins a Buccaneers' team with a stacked offense, but I expect him to form a one-two punch with Ronald Jones. I think this is the case where Bruce Arians and his staff unexpectedly saw a veteran back available and decided to pounce, but I do believe that they are still high on Jones. I'd rather have Fournette than Jones, but this is a situation to avoid for fantasy. Don't expect anywhere close to the receiving volume that Fournette saw in Jacksonville.
Dalvin Cook (-7) is an outstanding running back, but I just can't invest in him this year due to his injury concerns and potential holdout. When Adam Schefter makes a bold claim that he would hesitate drafting Cook if his contract issues are not resolved by the start of the season, you know it's a red flag. There's simply too many talented running backs that can be selected in the first two rounds, so I'm out on Cook.
Christian McCaffrey (-1) put up one of the best fantasy seasons in NFL history, but I prefer taking Saquon Barkley this year. The reason is simple: McCaffrey is being over-worked. He's coming off a 403-touch season in 2019, which came on the heels of a 326-touch year in 2018. Running backs that receive such a workload tend to have down seasons or even sharp declines, so the Panthers would be wise to limit the touches of their 5'11, 205-lb back. I mention his frame because most backs with such workloads are at least 220-lbs, so this makes it even more important to reduce CMC's touches.
Wide Receivers
WRs I'm Higher On
Will Fuller (+13) is now firmly entrenched as the WR1 in Houston with the departure of DeAndre Hopkins. When Fuller is in the lineup, Watson shines: +52 in passing yards per game, +1.5 in yards per attempt, and +2.9% in touchdown rate, so it's clear that the duo has great chemistry. We saw Fuller's ridiculous ceiling against the Falcons last year, where he went off for 14 receptions, 217 yards, and three touchdowns. Use the injury concerns as a buying opportunity.
A.J. Brown (+11) was one of three receivers since 1990 to put up 50+ receptions, 1,000+ yards, and 20.0+ yards per reception. He did that as a rookie on only 84 targets. There are concerns over volume, but Brown produced at a 100 target pace with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. As the Titans move away from Corey Davis, expect them to funnel targets to Brown. 130+ targets is within the realm of possibility. That gives him mouth-watering upside.
CeeDee Lamb (+8) joins a loaded group of wide receivers in Dallas, but the team has 166 vacated targets with the departures of Randall Cobb and Jason Witten. There's enough volume here for all three receivers to provide fantasy value. Lamb is currently tearing up Cowboys' camp and I expect him to supplant Michael Gallup as the WR2 on this team. The rookie receiver out of Clemson has league-winning upside, so he gets a big bump in my rankings.
WRs I'm Lower On
Keenan Allen (-11) is a clinical route-runner, but he looks poised for a down year with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, as the Chargers will transition to a low-volume, run-heavy offense. Allen depends on volume to excel, as he's not really a big-play receiver, so that really downgrades him in these rankings. The Chargers have a great supporting cast, so it looks likely that Taylor will remain the starter. That's bad news for Allen.
DeAndre Hopkins (-8) is one of the best receivers in football, but it's hard to invest such a high pick in a player who's joining a new team during this tumultuous off-season. Kliff Kingsbury's scheme involves having the quarterback spread the ball around, so it's likely that we see some regression in volume - don't expect Hopkins to reach 150 targets like he did last year. As promising as Kyler Murray is, he's a clear downgrade from Deshaun Watson. Let someone else draft Hopkins this year.
Cooper Kupp (-8) saw a sharp decline in production once the Rams transitioned to more two-wide-receiver/two-tight-end sets, as Robert Woods became the preferred target in this offense. I would expect the Rams to continue to utilize this formation most often, so Kupp looks more like a WR2 that's being drafted as a low-end WR1. I'd rather take ascending players like Terry McLaurin or D.K. Metcalf.
Tight Ends
| Tier | Rank | TE | RotoBaller Rank |
| 1 | 1 | George Kittle | 2 |
| 1 | 2 | Travis Kelce | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | Mark Andrews | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | Zach Ertz | 4 |
| 2 | 5 | Darren Waller | 5 |
| 2 | 6 | Evan Engram | 8 |
| 3 | 7 | Tyler Higbee | 6 |
| 3 | 8 | Noah Fant | 13 |
| 3 | 9 | Hunter Henry | 7 |
| 3 | 10 | Austin Hooper | 10 |
| 4 | 11 | Chris Herndon | 22 |
| 4 | 12 | T.J. Hockenson | 16 |
| 4 | 13 | Mike Gesicki | 14 |
| 5 | 14 | Hayden Hurst | 12 |
| 5 | 15 | Jonnu Smith | 18 |
| 5 | 16 | Blake Jarwin | 19 |
| 5 | 17 | Dallas Goedert | 17 |
| 6 | 18 | Rob Gronkowski | 9 |
| 6 | 19 | Jared Cook | 11 |
| 6 | 20 | Jack Doyle | 15 |
| 7 | 21 | Ian Thomas | 23 |
| 7 | 22 | Irv Smith Jr. | 21 |
| 7 | 23 | Eric Ebron | 20 |
| 7 | 24 | Dawson Knox | 25 |
| 7 | 25 | Jace Sternberger | 24 |
TEs I'm Higher On
Chris Herndon (+11) had his sophomore season washed out due to injury, which has created a buying opportunity. Herndon put up 500+ yards as a rookie, joining elite company that includes Rob Gronkowski, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews. He also put up 8.96 yards per target that year, ranking 5th among rookie tight ends since the merger. Herndon has a clear path to targets playing for a Jets' team that has no alpha WR1. Check out a more in-depth look here.
Noah Fant (+5) is one of the most athletic tight ends in football, ranking in the 97th-percentile or higher in speed, burst, agility, and catch radius scores on PlayerProfiler. He flashed upside as a rookie with two 100-yard games on four or fewer receptions, including a 75-yard touchdown. Fant's big-play ability is unmatched at the tight end position. He looks like the best bet of the potential breakout young tight ends. Check out more on Fant here.
George Kittle (+1) takes over the mantle of top tight end because he could see a career-high in targets with injuries to Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Kittle is also headed for positive touchdown regression, as he only put up five touchdowns despite ranking tied for second with most targets among tight ends within the 10-yard line. Kittle is four years younger than Kelce and ready to take over at TE1.
TEs I'm Lower On
Rob Gronkowski (-9) is a 31-year old tight end with back issues coming off a one-year retirement to join a new team in Tampa Bay. The Bucs are playoff contenders with terrific tight end depth with O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate, so they have an incentive to limit Gronk's snaps to keep him fresh for the stretch run. I just can't get behind investing in a touchdown-dependent tight end this year. Check out Gronk pessimism here.
Jared Cook (-8) is coming off a season where he set a career-high with nine touchdowns. The Saints are no longer a high-volume passing offense, so it's hard to expect Cook's low target total (4.64 per game in 2019) to increase. Cook is entering his age-33 season, making it tough to bank on sustained big-play production that he would need to deliver fantasy value. In a year where tight end is deeper than usual, I'm out.
Jack Doyle (-5) is another veteran tight end that I choose to avoid in favor of upside breakout targets. Doyle should get some volume with checkdown Philip Rivers at quarterback, but he's not a big-play tight end and he's never been a real threat in the red-zone (career-high is five touchdowns). I'd rather take a shot on a younger, more athletic tight end than settle for Doyle.
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