X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Why Joe Burrow Will Be a Top-10 Fantasy Quarterback

Frank Ammirante explains why Cincinnati Bengals rookie quarterback Joe Burrow could quickly become a top-10 fantasy football QB as soon as 2020, making him a draft sleeper and target.

The prevailing strategy that has taken over fantasy football is to wait on quarterback. Given the depth of the position, many fantasy players are focused on addressing other positions on their roster before selecting their QB1. This strategy allows you to construct a roster filled with depth at wide receiver and running back. If you’re able to hit on your QB, you’re well-positioned for a championship. 

There have been several recent examples of home-run picks with QBs past round six. Last year, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jameis Winston each provided strong production at a value. In 2018, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan, and Jared Goff excelled despite being selected in the later rounds. This year, there are several undervalued QBs on my radar, such as Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones, and Gardner Minshew II, but my favorite has to be rookie Joe Burrow

Burrow checks off all of the boxes you look for when searching for a value quarterback. He has a strong supporting cast filled with an impressive array of weapons. The Cincinnati Bengals project as a weak defense, providing shootout opportunities. Burrow enters his rookie season as one of the more pro-ready prospects in recent memory. His athleticism allows for rushing upside. The Bengals have several enticing matchups during the fantasy playoffs. The team should also see improvement in their offensive line. When you add up each of these factors, you can't help but come away intrigued with his potential in 2020. In fact, I'm convinced Burrow is going to finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in his rookie season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Strong Supporting Cast

Burrow will have opportunities to thrive with the strong supporting cast in this offense. A.J. Green is coming off consecutive injury-plagued seasons, but he’s still only turning 32 with some fuel left in the tank. Don’t forget that in 2018, he put up 46 REC, 694 YDS, and six TD on 77 TGTS in nine games. Green should be foaming at the mouth to play with such a talented young quarterback after missing so many games. Tyler Boyd has established himself as one of the premier slot receivers in the NFL. He’s coming off a career year, posting 90 REC, 1,046 YDS, and 5 TDS on 148 TGTS in 16 games. Green’s return should clear out defenders for Boyd to wreak havoc in the slot. 

Rookie Tee Higgins would have likely gone in the first round in most drafts, falling to the second round due to the stacked 2020 WR class. He put up an impressive 28 contested catches in his college career. John Ross II has had a disappointing career, but he’s still only turning 25. Ross is a burner with insane 4.22 speed, giving him the ability to take the top off an opposing defense. He showed flashes early in the 2019 season, putting up 16 REC, 316 YDS, and three TD in the first four games before his season was interrupted by a broken collarbone.

Joe Mixon looks ready to take off in his age-24 season. He finished 2019 on a dominant stretch that included 994 total yards and five TD in his last eight games. Burrow has an impressive arsenal at his disposal.

 

Weak Defense

The Bengals had a weak defense in 2019, giving up 6.1 yards per play (32nd), 42.6% 3rd down conversion rate (25th), 7.8 passing yards per attempt (tied-32nd), and 4.7 rushing yards per attempt (24th). The team signed defensive tackle D.J. Reader, a run-stuffing nose tackle that will eat up blockers, cornerback Trae Waynes, a disappointing former first-rounder, Mackensie Alexander, another cornerback to add depth to the secondary,  safety Vonn Bell, another depth addition at defensive back, and linebacker Josh Bynes, a player that should help on special teams.

They also drafted three linebackers: Logan Wilson (third round), Akeem Davis-Gaither (fourth round), and Markus Bailey (seventh round), to go along with defensive end Khalid Kareem (fifth round). Lou Anarumo returns as the defensive coordinator. These new additions will attempt to replace departing cornerbacks Darqueze Dennard and Dre Kirkpatrick, as well as linebacker Nick Vigil.

While the newcomers should add depth to the defense, it’s tough to project much improvement here. The Bengals’ defense remains one of the worst units in the NFL, which will force Burrow into several shootouts in his rookie season. Burrow will likely be tasked with leading the Bengals from behind, forced to air it out to keep pace with the opposing team. This translates into a highly favorable position for fantasy success. We want to target quarterbacks with weak defenses because this will allow for more volume and potential scoring opportunities. Burrow will be in numerous positive game script situations in his rookie season.

 

Pro-Ready Prospect

Burrow is the most pro-ready prospect at QB since Andrew Luck. His 2019 season was quite possibly the most impressive season in NCAA history. As a senior at LSU, Burrow completed 76.3% of his passes for 5,671 yards on 10.8 yards per attempt with 60 touchdowns and six interceptions. This otherworldly production allowed Burrow to supplant Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa as the premier QB prospect in the 2020 NFL Draft.

While Burrow does not possess elite athleticism like other strong prospects, he makes up for that with accuracy, pocket presence, work ethic, and football IQ. This isn’t going to be a situation where head coach Zac Taylor limits the playbook to accommodate his rookie quarterback. Burrow’s strengths should allow him to play freely without any typical rookie constraints.

 

Rushing Upside

The best fantasy quarterbacks are able to provide yardage on the ground. This raises their weekly floors, as it mitigates any poor passing performances. It also raises their ceiling, since the rushing yardage can provide an added boost to a big game. Burrow checks off this box as well. In his junior season at LSU, Burrow ran for 399 yards and seven touchdowns. As a senior, he put up 368 yards and five touchdowns. While it’s unlikely that he eclipses five rushing touchdowns as a pro, we can still project approximately 200 rushing yards with the upside for more.

 

Prime Playoff Matchups

Burrow has a terrific fantasy playoff schedule, which puts him in position to thrive at the right time. The Redskins (23rd), Texans (25th), Giants (29th), and Dolphins (30th) each ranked in the bottom-third of the league in passing yards per attempt allowed last season. The Redskins and Dolphins figure to improve in 2020, but they’re still exploitable. The Giants and Texans remain bottom-tier passing defenses.

While the Cowboys ranked ninth, the team lost their top cornerback Byron Jones to free agency, so their defense is likely headed for some regression. Each of these games project as shootouts. This will also be a time in the season where Burrow has adapted to the professional level, so it’s likely that we’ll see his best performances during this stretch.

 

Offensive Line Improvements

Jonah Williams was regarded as one of the safest picks in the 2019 NFL Draft, with elite technique and run-blocking ability. He should be able to provide a significant upgrade to the Bengals’ porous offensive line. The team also signed guard Xavier Su’a-Filo, an experienced lineman with 53 career starts, providing some veteran stability to this youthful unit. While guard Michael Jordan struggled as a rookie, the team is high on his upside due to his athleticism and football IQ. Burrow should also help mask any deficiencies on the offensive line with his quick decision-making and superior athletic ability compared to last season’s starters, Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley. The Bengals should have a much-improved offensive line this season.

 

Final Thoughts

Since 2006, the only rookies to finish as QB1s were Vince Young, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Dak Prescott, and Kyler Murray. It’s a daunting task for a rookie to excel as a fantasy football QB, but the pieces are in place for Burrow to thrive. Burrow obviously does not have the same rushing ability as Young, Newton, Wilson, Griffin, and Murray. However, he shares several similarities with Prescott and Luck. He has the strong supporting cast with rushing ability like Prescott, as well as the weak defense and pro-ready traits like Luck. Burrow is a great value, currently being drafted as QB16, behind declining veterans like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. He’s going to help a lot of fantasy players secure a championship this season. Joe Burrow will be a Top-10 fantasy QB as a rookie in 2020.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Saquon Barkley

Scores Touchdown in Low-Yardage Outing
Jalen Hurts

Rushes for Two Touchdowns on Thursday
Javonte Williams

Salvages Inefficient Outing With Two Touchdowns
CeeDee Lamb

110-Yard Game Marred by Four Drops
Will Shipley

Questionable to Return on Thursday Night
Pablo López

Pablo Lopez Expected to Return on Friday
Micah Parsons

Expected to Play in Week 1
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Exits With Knee Contusions
Christian McCaffrey

Listed as Limited With Calf Injury
Justin Jefferson

Not on Week 1 Injury Report
Omarion Hampton

to Start Against Chiefs on Friday
Will Smith

Unlikely to Play This Weekend
Shohei Ohtani

to Pitch on Monday
Najee Harris

Off the Final Injury Report, Will Play in Week 1
Jon Rahm

Looks to Prove His Importance on European Ryder Cup Team
Tommy Fleetwood

Among Leaders of European Ryder Cup Team
Christian Kirk

Expected to be Sidelined in Week 1, Could Miss More Time
Amari Cooper

Informs Raiders of Retirement
Jayden Reed

Returns to Practice
Brandon Sproat

to Start for Mets on Sunday
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Close to Triple-Double Versus Serbia
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Fills Box Score Against Turkey
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Shakes Off Minor Injury
E.J. Liddell

Inks Two-Way Deal With Nets
NBA

Ben Simmons Reportedly Considering Retirement
P.J. Washington

Agrees to Four-Year, $90 Million Extension
Mike Trout

Plans to Return on Thursday
Will Smith

X-Rays Negative on Will Smith's Hand
Jauan Jennings

Gets Incentives Added to Contract
Jakobi Meyers

Unsure About Potential Extension
Matthew Stafford

Off Injury Report Ahead of Week 1
Will Smith

Exits With Hand Contusion
Jackson Chourio

in Lineup Wednesday Despite Hamstring Cramps
Sepp Straka

Gets Captain's Pick to Join Team Europe
Christian Yelich

Dealing With Soreness in Lower Back
PGA

Victor Hovland to Make Third Ryder Cup Appearance for Team Europe
J.J. Spaun

Set to Represent Team USA for First Time at Bethpage
Russell Henley

Makes First Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Harris English

Named to Ryder Cup Team for Second Time
Kyle Finnegan

Dealing With Groin Issue
Shohei Ohtani

Will Pitch "Sometime This Weekend"
Jackson Chourio

Absent on Wednesday With Hamstring Cramp
Roman Anthony

Officially Goes on Injured List
Jauan Jennings

Limited on Wednesday, Expected to Play in Week 1
Malik Nabers

Not on Initial Injury Report
Roman Anthony

"High Probability" Roman Anthony Lands on Injured List
Justin Thomas

Making Fourth Ryder Cup Team Appearance at Bethpage
Ben Griffin

Making First Career Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Bryson DeChambeau

Set to be Part of Team USA at Bethpage
Jason Adam

to Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
Roman Anthony

Will Undergo MRI on Wednesday
Santi Aldama

Bags Double-Double in Losing Effort
Guerschon Yabusele

Erupts for 36 Points Against Poland
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Leads Slovenia Into Next Round at EuroBasket
San Antonio Spurs

Stanley Umude Signs Training Camp Deal With Spurs
Reece Beekman

Joins Magic for Training Camp
Justin Minaya

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Magic
Travis Hunter

Jaguars List Travis Hunter as Starting Wide Receiver, Backup Cornerback
Kyle Tucker

Leaves With Calf Tightness on Tuesday
Alexandre Sarr

to Miss Rest of EuroBasket
Max Scherzer

Blue Jays Confident Max Scherzer Will Make Saturday Start Despite Back Tightness
Roman Anthony

Leaves Early With Back Injury
Jared McCain

"On Pace" for Training Camp
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Done for the Year With Torn ACL
Luke Hughes

Devils Optimistic About Signing Luke Hughes
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Dylan Holloway

Good to Go for Start of Season
Josh Morrissey

Fully Healthy for Start of Season
Dennis Hildeby

Signs Three-Year Extension With Maple Leafs
Dalton Kincaid

Role Not Expected to Grow?
Quinshon Judkins

Zero Chance Quinshon Judkins Plays Against Bengals?
Franz Wagner

Collects Double-Double in Blowout Win
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Achieves Rare Numbers at EuroBasket
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Dominates Against Sweden
Kristaps Porzingis

Finding Form at EuroBasket
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Suffers Minor Injury at EuroBasket
Victor Wembanyama

Looking "Quite Stellar"
Denny Hamlin

Ends Eventful Day at Darlington in Seventh Place
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Almost Earns a Top-Five Finish at Darlington
John Hunter Nemechek

has His Best 2025 Performance at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Has An Underwhelming Performance At Darlington
Josh Berry

Crashes Early and Suffers A Playoff Setback at Darlington
Giannis Antetokounmpo

"Staying in Milwaukee"
Chase Elliott

Under Playoff Pressure After 17th-Place Darlington Finish
Kyle Larson

Despite Hendrick Mediocrity, Kyle Larson Remains Pretty Safe in Playoffs
Alex Bowman

Opening-Lap Crash and Botched Pit Stop May Have Sunk Alex Bowman's Playoff Hopes
Erik Jones

Darlington Master Erik Jones Comes Up Short but Still Finishes Third
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Impresses at Southern 500
Daniel Suarez

is A DFS Risk for Darlington Lineups?
Noah Gragson

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Noah Gragson for Darlington?
Ty Dillon

is an Excellent Punt Option for Darlington DFS Lineups
Denny Hamlin

Picking Up Where He Left Off At Darlington
Kyle Larson

The Sky Is The Limit for Kyle Larson at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

a Strong DFS Play at Darlington This Weekend
Tyler Reddick

Shouldn't Be Overlooked at Darlington This Weekend
Alex Bowman

An Easy Place-Differential Play in DFS This Weekend
Ty Gibbs

Could Be Strong at Darlington This Weekend
Erik Jones

Has Best Darlington Qualifying Effort Since Last Win
Zane Smith

Hopeful For Another Solid Run At Darlington

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP