RADIO
Silly Season was in full effect this week, with a number of announcements gearing towards the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season. Surely, that means some drivers will be more aggressive this weekend at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, with just five races remaining in the regular season.
Matt DiBenedetto is out at Wood Brothers Racing come Nov. 8, making room for Harrison Burton. 2020 Xfinity Series champion Austin Cindric will take over the No. 2 car at Team Penske for Brad Keselowski, as all signs pointing to Keselowski joining Roush Fenway Racing as an owner/driver. So, where does that leave Ryan Newman?
Nonetheless, over the past handful of years, the same drivers typically run up front in the Granite State. Joe Gibbs Racing has dominated races (having a top-two finish in 14 of the last 15 races at the track), but of late, Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski have sealed the deal. Let's find out who will be hoisting a lobster in victory lane come Sunday.
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Kyle Busch
(DraftKings $10,900 | FanDuel $12,500 | DK SportsBook +650)
Kyle Larson costs the most on DraftKings and FanDuel. But it's Kyle Busch that I believe will have a standout weekend at New Hampshire.
As noted, JGR has dominated many races at NHMS over the past handful of years, and Busch has won at the track; twice in the last six years. In the last nine races at the 1-mile track, the No. 18 has found itself out front in seven different events, leading at least 95 laps on five separate occasions. In his 2017 victory, Busch led a race-high 187 laps and Toyota as a whole led all but one lap. In 2018, the Las Vegas native was in position to win, until he was moved out of the way by Kevin Harvick with less than 10 laps remaining.
Busch is good at New Hampshire, leading 1,128 laps in 29 career starts. And of late, the No. 18 Toyota has arguably been the best car over the past month, entering the weekend with four straight top-three finishes. In addition, Busch will have clean air early, as he starts from the pole. Busch is my pick to win the 301-lap race this weekend.
Kevin Harvick
(DraftKings $10,300 | FanDuel $11,300 | DK SportsBook +1500)
Last year, Harvick would have been a no-brainer for his price and odds to win the race. But, nothing has been like the 2020 season for the No. 4 team, still winless, 21 races into the season.
However, not too long ago in 2019, Harvick had gone winless until mid-July before winning at New Hampshire. He went on to score three additional victories over the final four months of the season. For the same story to repeat itself this year might be a stretch, but there's no doubt the No. 4 team has been good at NHMS.
Since the fall 2014 race, Harvick eight top-five finishes in his last 10 starts at New Hampshire. He's also won three of the past six races at the venue, and enters with three straight top fives. With the No. 4 car rolling off 12th, that's an added bonus to have him in your lineup, potentially making up positions in the finishing order.
Denny Hamlin
(DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $13,000 | DK SportsBook +475)
With how good Denny Hamlin is at New Hampshire -- has an average finish of 9.6 in 27 starts -- it's surprising to know he's won just once there in the past nine years. Granted, the No. 11 team does have back-to-back runner-up finishes at the track. And had the 2019 race been scheduled for 302 laps, it's very possible he beat Harvick.
But the reality is, Hamlin has led at least 92 laps in the last two starts at the track. In 2019, he led 113 circuits. If the No. 11 Toyota can repeat those performances, in addition to starting sixth, it bodes well for your team.
With just five races left in the regular season, Hamlin is going to have to be on his game. Over the last five races, he's never had a points leader bigger than 10, and Kyle Larson's summer surge has seen the No. 11 team's points lead evaporate. This weekend, I'd give a slight edge to Hamlin.
Brad Keselowski
(DraftKings $9,300 | FanDuel $11,500 | DK SportsBook +650)
Last year, Brad Keselowski entered New Hampshire believing it was a must win to know he would be among the championship favorites. He went out and dominated the race. This year, he feels the same way, though Team Penske isn't performing up to its standards.
Because of that, Keselowski is a risky pick this weekend. Last year, he and Joey Logano dominated on the 750 horsepower tracks, with the No. 2 car winning three times on those types of tracks. This year, however, the same No. 2 team has a best finish of fourth (Phoenix).
As noted last week prior to Atlanta, Keselowski has struggled since winning at Talladega Superspeedway in late May. With just eight top-10 finishes through 21 races, he's on pace to have his worst outing since 2011. But as that season went out, the No. 2 team found its stride. Maybe that will happen this year, too? Roger Penske noted on Thursday, that though Keselowski will be moving on at the end of the season, there are races -- and a championship -- to be won.
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Martin Truex Jr.
(DraftKings $9,100 | FanDuel $13,500| DK SportsBook +500)
With as many laps as Martin Truex Jr. has led at New Hampshire (744), you would have expected him to visit victory lane and held the lobster by now. Unfortunately for him, that's not the case.
Truex's 744 laps led at NHMS are nearly double Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s 378, who is second on the list of drivers that have never won at the track. Between 2016 and 2017, Truex had a four-race streak of dominance of leading at least 112 laps. But his best result in that time was third.
Entering the weekend, it's hard to gauge where the No. 19 team is at. Truex came from the back twice last weekend to finish third at Atlanta. But prior to that, he'd had just one finish better than ninth since winning at Darlington Raceway in early May.
Aric Almirola
(DraftKings $8,400 | FanDuel $7,500 | DK SportsBook +8000)
Wanna talk about real risky picks, look no further. Aric Almirola has had one of those years in which the No. 10 team can't get out of its own way, with just a pair of top 10s through 21 races.
Historically, though, New Hampshire has been one of Almirola's best tracks on the circuit. The Florida native has four top-10 results in 18 starts, with two of those coming in the last three races. In the other start, he placed 11th (2019). And who can forget in 2018, it looked as though the No. 10 team was going to crack victory lane, leading 42 laps. That was until his Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Clint Bowyer wrecked late and the No. 10 team had a slow pit stop.
Look, on DraftKings and FanDuel, Almirola's prices are probably a tad high from how he's performed this season. On the bright side, the No. 10 car will start from 22nd position, meaning there are points to be gained.
Matt DiBenedetto
(DraftKings $7,500 | FanDuel $8,000 | DK SportsBook +4000)
Last October, Wood Brothers Racing announced Matt DiBenedetto wouldn't return to the team past the 2021 season. When reports came out this spring that Keselowski would be leaving Team Penske, the possibility of DiBenedetto returning to the team became real.
But on Thursday, Wood Bros. announced they'd signed Burton for the 2022 season, leaving DiBenedetto without a ride. In a nine-minute social media video, DiBenedetto made it adamant that he was thankful for the opportunity, though still pissed off he was let go.
Why does that matter to you? Typically when something like this happens, the driver becomes extra motivated. Need an example? in 2013, Ryan Newman (more on him in a minute) was told he wouldn't be returning to SHR. The following week at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, he won the Brickyard 400.
This doesn't happen to everyone, but DiBenedetto has stated this week he believes New Hampshire is his best shot of winning before the playoffs. He also enters the five-race stretch to the playoffs in must-win mode, sitting well below the cutline. In the last two races at NHMS, he has finishes of fifth and sixth.
Ryan Newman
(DraftKings $7,200 | FanDuel $5,500 | DK SportsBook +20000)
There's no doubt about it, Ryan Newman is in the midst of his second consecutive disappointing season with Roush Fenway Racing. But he's always ran well at New Hampshire.
Not only did Newman pick up his first Cup victory at the track 19 years ago, but he's gone on to win twice more at the track. Granted, his last victory came a decade ago.
But even still, Newman has gotten the job done, having one of his best performances at Roush Fenway Racing two years ago at NHMS, finishing seventh. In 2018, his last start at the track for Richard Childress Racing, he placed sixth. Quite frankly, of all drivers that are low-budgeted this weekend, Newman is the best value pick. There's also optimism with the No. 6 Ford starting 28th.
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