December 3, 2016

Nathan Powell analyzes fantasy football lineup sleepers and avoids for Week 13 of the 2016 NFL season. These are boom or bust plays for DFS and seasonal leagues.

Welcome back, RotoBallers. In this article, I will cover five of my favorite boom or bust plays for Week 13 of the fantasy football season.

The Boom or Bust play is one of the most talked about aspects of fantasy football each week. Boom or Bust players can be used as lineup options in deeper leagues, when it appears you are a heavy underdog in your head-to-head matchup or even in Guaranteed Prize Pool Tournaments in DFS. Let's get rolling.

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Quarterback

Kirk Cousins, Washington QB at ARI

Just like in 2015, Kirk Cousins has been one of the best fantasy football quarterbacks toward the end of the season. Cousins has scored 29 fantasy points or more in three of their last four games, with only two of 11 games this season being under 20 fantasy points.

In Week 13, Cousins faces his toughest road test of the season against a Cardinals secondary that has allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Washington/Arizona game is tied for the 4th highest over/under of the week, which should mean that Cousins gets the necessary volume to have a big fantasy week. But I believe that the Cardinals defense frustrates Cousins into multiple turnovers, making him more of a QB2 play than a QB1.

Verdict: Bust

Running Back

Thomas Rawls, Seahawks RB vs CAR

After being out since Week 2 with a fibula injury, Thomas Rawls returned to action in Week 12. In two games since his return, Rawls has 26 carries for 95 rushing yards, good for an average of 3.65 yards per carry. Rawls has been less than efficient and the offense as a whole struggled in Rawls first game as a starter, scoring only three points in Tampa. However, in fantasy football, it is often all about volume.

In Week 13, Rawls and the Seahawks face a Carolina Panthers defense that has allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to running backs so far this season. This game projects the 4th lowest scoring game of the week at 44, and the Seahawks are seven point home favorites. With the Seahawks heavily favored, they will likely lean on Thomas Rawls burn clock in the 2nd half and he could have his first 20+ carry game of the season.

Verdict: Boom

Wide Receiver

Sammy Watkins, Bills WR at OAK

Playing his first game since Week 2 in Week 12, Sammy Watkins played only 25 of 55 snaps (45%) in his return against Jacksonville. While some may see his line of three catches for 80 receiving yards, and assume his role will only increase in his 2nd week back from injury, that isn't necessarily the case.

This week in practice Watkins has been limited all week with his foot injury, and the Bills coaching staff has been ambiguous in the media about how much Watkins will be able to play in Week 13. If his playing time does increase, Watkins gets a plus matchup against a Raiders secondary that has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to wide receivers. I’m just not confident he will be healthy enough to take advantage of the matchup.

Verdict: Bust

Tight End

Martellus Bennett, Patriots TE vs LA

With Rob Gronkowski likely out for the season with a back injury, the attention turns to Martellus Bennett at the tight end position in New England. The main concern with Bennett entering this week has been an injury of his own, as he has been slowed with an ankle injury, catching only four passes for 36 receiving yards in his last two games.

In Week 13 against the Los Angeles Rams, whether he booms or busts will be heavily dependent on the ankle injury that has him listed as questionable. As of now, he is a risky play. But as one of the top options in the passing game, and the clear best red zone option for Tom Brady, this game could look similar to Bennett’s biggest performance of the season when he caught six passes for 67 receiving yards and three touchdowns in Cleveland.

Verdict: Boom

Hail Mary of the Week

In the Hail Mary of the Week, I will choose a Boom/Bust candidate who is available on the waiver wire or at the end of benches in most fantasy football leagues and could have a big week:

Leonte Carroo, Dolphins WR at BAL

Leonte Carroo caught his first pass since Week 1 in week 12 against the 49ers. While the 15 yard grab was his only catch of the day, it did go for his first career touchdown. On an offense devoid of red zone weapons outside of Devante Parker, the Dolphins may see last weeks touchdown as a reason to get Carroo more involved.

In Week 13, the Dolphins face another mediocre pass defense in a Ravens secondary that has allowed the 12th most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. While Carroo may be buried behind Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker and Kenny Stills on the depth chart, often times it doesn't take much for a young player to flash and quickly escalate their playing time. It wouldn't surprise me if Carroo left this game among the Dolphins top three targeted players.