Finding Tight End Breakouts for Fantasy Football – Injury Impact Across the Tight End Position

November 17, 2022

Robert looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 11 (2022). He uses advanced NFL stats for tight ends to find breakouts and fades.

Injuries are a part of football. There's no escaping them. No way around them. We've seen plenty of injuries to the running back and wide receiver positions, but the injury bug finally made its way to the tight end position. As if fantasy managers needed this dreaded position made even more difficult, but here we are.

Injuries are always unfortunate and no one ever wants to see them happen, but when they do happen we need to reassess to determine how they might change the fantasy environment. In the past two weeks, fantasy managers have seen Darren Waller, Zach Ertz, and Dallas Goedert get sent to the IR. We've also seen Cameron Brate return to the playing field, which is going to have an effect on Cade Otton.

Fantasy managers are also hoping to get David Njoku and Mark Andrews back soon. It sounds as though Andrews could very well return this week, but early reports indicate Njoku might still be one more week away. With all these injuries at the tight end position in such a short amount of time, we'll be looking at the fallout of these injuries.

Las Vegas Raiders

Darren Waller was put on IR yesterday due to his recurring hamstring injury. Due to this, he won't be eligible to return until Week 14. This will give him one week to shake off the rust before fantasy playoffs in Week 15 or two weeks if you were able to secure the first-round bye. If he's able to come back before the playoffs to give fantasy managers a look before having to put him into their starting lineups, there are at least some reasons for optimism.

Waller has only played four games, all coming in the season's first four weeks. In those four weeks, which includes Week 2 where he played just 54% of the snaps, he averaged 6.2 targets per game. This is tied for the eighth-most with Dallas Goedert among tight ends. He averaged four receptions per game, tied for 11th-most, and 43.8 yards per game, tied for ninth-most. Despite missing four games, Waller is still tied for the 10th-most red zone targets this season with seven, once again tied with Goedert. All good utilization signs.

He also was averaging just over 68 air yards per game, which is the fifth-most this season. His 10.9-yard average depth of target indicates the Raiders were using Waller down the field, which comes with more upside. Tight ends who work so close to the line of scrimmage are typically underwhelming for fantasy without touchdowns or high target totals. He also was running just under 34 routes per game, which would be the fourth-highest number among tight ends this season.

Everything about Waller's utilization in those first four weeks is that of a top-10 tight end. His PPG average does not reflect that, but that's partly because he only found the end zone one time in four weeks. Touchdowns are such a make-or-break statistic when it comes to tight ends, but based on his overall and red zone target numbers, we would have expected positive touchdown regression in his future.

Waller is a tough gamble because we don't know when he'll be back or if he'll be fully healthy when he finally does make it back. His return will also be bumping up with the start of fantasy playoffs, which is not ideal. However, the upside he has based on his early utilization could make for a good stash for a playoff team weak at tight end.

Waller's absence has created a big-time opportunity for Foster Moreau. Over the past four weeks, Moreau has played 96% or more of the team's snaps each week. During that time, Moreau averaged 5.8 targets per game, which was the 10th-most at the position over that time span. He's also tied for tenth for receptions per game at 3.5. However, despite the positive number of targets and receptions, he's averaged just 36 yards per game, which is tied for 15th. The minuscule yardage can be explained by a dismal average depth of target of just 6.4 yards.

In all the games he has filled in for Darren Waller or played alongside him, Foster Moreau’s best performance is 67 yards

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) November 6, 2022

He's averaged just 37 yards per game, which tells fantasy managers he's not getting too many "exciting" targets. He's mostly been used as a short-yardage, dump-down, security blanket type of option for Derek Carr. That's not the worst thing in the world, just understand it limits his upside. Compare his 6.4-yard average depth of target to Waller's 10.9 and his 37 air yards to Waller's 68, and it's easy to see why fantasy managers need to solidly temper expectations for the backup tight end.

The one positive for Moreau is the Raiders have often found themselves trailing on the scoreboard, which has led to them averaging 36.1 passes per game. This ranks ninth-most in the NFL. This pass-heavy offense combined with Moreau's exceptionally high snap rate puts him into a situation where he's running a bunch of routes. In fact, over the past four weeks, only four tight ends have averaged more routes run than Moreau, who sits at just under 32 routes per game.

Until Waller returns, Moreau is nothing more than a touchdown-dependent TE2. His low number of air yards and pathetically low average depth of target tells fantasy managers he's not likely to rack up a bunch of yardage. He'll need a touchdown to score well. That's true of most tight ends – just know Waller's injury doesn't make Moreau a TE1. He's still best viewed as a streamer, used only in positive matchups.

Arizona Cardinals

Zach Ertz injured his knee early in the first quarter of the Cardinals' Week 10 game against the Rams. He was officially ruled out and reports came out this week that the knee injury Ertz sustained was season-ending. This will put second-round rookie, Trey McBride onto center stage. It's quite the opportunity for the rookie, so what can fantasy managers expect?

If you'd like to read McBride's rookie profile to see what kind of prospect he was coming in, you can do so here. It certainly looks, at least from what happened after Ertz exited the game last week that McBride will walk into the same role Ertz previously held.

Cardinals' rookie TE Trey McBride took over the lead spot with Zach Ertz (knee injured).

91% snaps
76% route participation
3% target share
3% targets per route

Targets weren't there yet, but that could change for the second-round pick.

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 14, 2022

There were a lot of positive signs in how the rookie was deployed once Ertz left the contest. He stepped into an every-down role, playing almost every single snap afterward. His 76% route participation demonstrates to fantasy managers that McBride is going to have plenty of opportunity. The Cardinals have constantly played from behind and that has led to Arizona attempting over 40 pass attempts per game. Their pass attempts per game average are the fourth-highest in the NFL. It's not surprising to find Ertz has averaged the fourth-most routes per game through Week 10 and that's after playing just nine snaps last week.

McBride will likely walk seamlessly into Ertz's, but the bigger question will be just how many of Ertz's targets find their way to McBride. The news came out yesterday that Marquise Brown was designated to return and head coach, Kliff Kingsbury indicated there's a chance Brown could return for their Week 11 game. Ertz has averaged 7.1 targets per game, but that included a six-game suspension for DeAndre Hopkins, a three-game injury absence for Rondale Moore, and a four-game injury absence for Marquise Brown.

McBride will be competing with far more target competition than Ertz had to face at any one time this season. While fantasy managers can certainly like his role in the Arizona offense and the passing volume in general, earning regular targets with the likes of Hopkins, Brown, and Moore will be difficult. McBride is an exciting prospect, but expectations need to be tempered. He'll most likely be, at best, No. 3 on the target hierarchy any given week, but will generally operate as Kyler Murray's fourth preferred option behind their three starting receivers. This will leave him as a streaming, touchdown-dependent TE2.

Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Goedert is tied for the third-best half-PPR PPG average among tight ends this season, but he’s not doing it on volume. His 6.2 targets per game are ranked just ninth at the position, however, he averages five receptions per game, which ranks fifth. He’s been one of the most efficient tight ends this year and there’s no reason to expect that to change. He’s averaging 65.1 yards per game, which puts him on pace for 1,106 yards.

He only has two touchdowns. He’s tied for the 10th most red zone targets among tight ends but has yet to generate a single end zone target. His average depth of target is just 5.3 yards, which leaves a little something to be desired, but no tight end has been better than Goedert after the catch. He is averaging a ridiculous 8.7 yards after the catch per reception. He’ll need that efficiency to continue because he’s only running 27 routes per game, which ranks just 16th at the position. His 2.42 yards per route run is better than Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.

Fantasy managers should continue treating Goedert as a top-five tight end for the rest of the season. The one downfall for him is the lack of volume, both in terms of targets per game and routes run, but he is playing so well right now, it hasn’t stopped him. We should expect to see some positive touchdown regression in the second half of the season.

Goedert was put on IR, which means he's out for the next four weeks. He won't be eligible to return until Week 15, which could put fantasy managers in a tough spot. Week 15 is generally the first week of the playoffs for 12-team leagues unless you were lucky enough to have earned the first-round bye. In 10-team leagues, fantasy playoffs typically start in Week 16, which will give Goedert one week to shake off the dust.

Goedert needs to be rostered until he comes back because he was performing as one of the league's best fantasy football tight ends, but this timeframe puts him and fantasy managers in a tough spot. Unfortunately, there is no Foster Moreau or Trey McBride lurking in Philadelphia. The most likely scenario is a tight end by committee in Philadelphia. The biggest beneficiaries of Goedert's injury will be receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. There isn't a tight end here that fantasy managers need to concern themselves with even with Goedert out of commission for the next four weeks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cade Otton's playing time has coincided with Cameron Brate's availability. In Week 1, the Buccaneers employed a tight end-by-committee approach with Brate leading the way. In Weeks 2, 4, and 6, Cameron Brate left early in all three games, which left Otton filling in as the primary tight end for half of the contest. However, in Weeks 5 and 7–9, Otton acted as the primary tight end for the majority of the game. In these four contests, Otton had snap shares of 81% at the low end all the way up to 93%.

In this four-game sample, in Weeks 5 and 7–9, Otton averaged 5.8 targets per game, which ranked 13th among tight ends. He was ninth in receptions per game with 4.2 and ninth in receiving yards per game with 47.5. All of those numbers are very promising for the rookie, but what is even more important for his fantasy value is the opportunity he was given. He was running just over 42 routes per game during this span. This was the second-highest among all tight ends and he averaged an 81% route run participation rate. This kind of utilization would have him ranked as a high-end TE2 most weeks and a backend TE1 on weeks with where he had a good matchup.

However, in Week 11 veteran Brate returned to the lineup. While Otton still out-snapped Brate (46–34), the decrease in opportunity all but ends Otton's fantasy relevance. In fact, the fantasy numbers look much worse.

Pour one out for Tampa Bay rookie TE Cade Otton.

With Cameron Brate back, his route participation plummeted to 29%, per PFF data.

Brate was at 52% -- neither are usable in fantasy moving forward.

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 14, 2022

A 29% route participation rate evaporates all of Otton's fantasy value. Poof. Gone. While his box score indicates he out-played Brate finishing with three receptions and 35 yards to Brate's one reception and eight yards, it won't matter. Not unless their playing time and utilization change in the future, but at that time, we can always reassess. At this time, based on what we saw in Week 10, neither of these tight ends is playable.

Typically, we're looking for tight ends who are running a route on at least 70% of the team's dropbacks. Ideally, that number is at 75%, but the higher, the better. 29% for Otton is a fantasy football death sentence and even Brate at 52% makes him nothing more than a dart throw in which you're hoping he happens to find the end zone. It's too bad too because Otton played well.

Baltimore Ravens

Mark Andrews was limited in practice yesterday, a sign that he will most likely be available this weekend. We're not here to talk about Andrews. He's a must-start, set it and forget tight end, but what does his return for Isaiah Likely? The answer is, unfortunately, we don't know.

Prior to Andrews' early exit in Week 8, Likely hadn't played more than 45% of the team's snaps in any game. He only had one game above 37% of the snaps and three games with fewer than 25% snaps played. Needless to say, Likely was completely irrelevant for fantasy purposes in the first seven weeks of the season, but then Andrews got injured.

In Week 8, Likely stepped into Andrews' role and played excellently. In the past two weeks, with Likely's snap counts at 67% and 76%, he received 12 targets and finished with seven receptions, 101 yards, and two touchdowns. He registered a 21.4% target share. His numbers across the board were very fantasy appealing. He averaged 67.5 air yards per game and had an average depth of target of 11.2 yards. He averaged 26 routes run per game, which would rank 18th among tight ends over the full season.

The question becomes, can Likely stay fantasy relevant even with Andrews back on the field? In the first few weeks of the season, Rashod Bateman was healthy and provided their passing offense with a clear No. 2 receiver to Mark Andrews. That no longer exists. Could Likely fill that role? At this time, we don't know. It's a roll of the dice, one that likely will not result in any fruit. Fantasy managers can feel comfortable moving on from Likely with the return of Andrews. The probability of one team having two fantasy-relevant tight ends, especially a team that only passes it 28–30 times per game is extremely unlikely.

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