Matchups Analysis and Lineups Advice for Divisional Round FFPC Playoff Challenge #2

January 21, 2022

Pierre Camus provides fantasy football advice and lineup strategies for the NFL Divisional Round and the FFPC Playoff Challenge #2 contests. Win big in 2022.

If you missed out on the FFPC Playoff Challenge before the playoffs began or simply want in on more postseason fantasy action, you're in luck! FFPC Playoff Challenge Round 2 is open and seeking competitive players looking for high-stakes action. You can also take part in the FootballGuys Playoff Challenge for an equal challenge with a smaller buy-in.

In my previous strategy article, I broke down the rules for this contest along with lineup suggestions so it's best to refer to that piece for newcomers. Scott "The King" Engel also provided his fantasy playoff rankings for those joining the FFPC Playoff Challenge.

This article will explain the key differences for this second contest along with updated lineup suggestions to make the optimal build.

What's Different for Challenge #2?

To begin, let's review the rules and updated prize structures for the latest contest in the divisional rounds.

The roster construction is adjusted from the original Playoff Challenge. Now, eight players are required at these positions: QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-TE-FLEX-FLEX. Managers must choose exactly one player from each NFL team.

Where to Begin

In the original Playoff Challenge, I suggested starting your lineup build by crossing off the two teams you didn't want any part of on your roster and then picking a kicker and defense first. That strategy doesn't apply here since only eight roster spots are used for the eight remaining playoff teams and there is no K or DST.

It would then be prudent to pick a quarterback on the team you feel best about advancing to the championship game but there are four quarterbacks with compelling cases and any of Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or Josh Allen would be great choices.

So, let's start with the most important and toughest position to forecast - running back. By process of elimination, there are few quality options so this should be fairly easy.

Many will pin their hopes on Derrick Henry returning to form but he hasn't played in a game since Halloween. He was just cleared for contact in practice midweek before the divisional round. Coach Mike Vrabel is saying what one would expect from an NFL coach but nothing in my mind points to Henry getting close to his previous workload:

Mike Vrabel says this is a big week of practice for Derrick Henry to get acclimated. They want him to get used to running a lot/blocking schemes.

No official decision yet on Henry’s status or workload but Vrabel says they will run the ball a lot regardless b/c it’s “who we are.”

— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) January 17, 2022

Joe Mixon didn't do a lot in the first round matchup and now faces a Tennessee defense that ranked first in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Pass.

Leonard Fournette wasn't active last week and may not be this week either. Ke'Shawn Vaughn was fine against the Eagles but he can't be considered one of the top RB options facing Aaron Donald and the Rams.

Picking a running back from the Chiefs' backfield is a waste of an entry if you are passing on Kelce, Hill, or Mahomes in the hopes of landing a big game from Darrel Williams or Jerick McKinnon.

Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon each present upside but who is the better pick? A timeshare situation turns this into a guessing game. Aaron Jones may be 1A but he's seen his production capped by Dillon's presence. Jones hasn't gone over 76 yards on the ground since Week 5 and seems touchdown-dependent for a big fantasy game. Dillon isn't a strong enough choice with Jones on the field.

Elijah Mitchell ran for 96 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys and will be leaned on again as Jimmy Garoppolo is still far from 100% health-wise. His ownership should be low enough to make him a viable option since Deebo Samuel is likely to be the most popular Niner followed by George Kittle.

Devin Singletary might be this year's playoff-league winner with the way he's going. Singletary has scored eight touchdowns in the last five games, including two in the blowout win over New England. After averaging 8.6 carries and 42.1 yards per game from Week 1-14, he's averaging 18 carries and 81 rushing yards per game since Week 15 along with a little work in the passing game. Many high-stakes players will be nervous to choose him over Josh Allen or Stefon Diggs, but that's the type of move that could pay off in the end.

The return of Cam Akers was inspiring in itself but the fact he totaled 95 yards and out-touched Sony Michel should raise some eyebrows. He could see even more work in the matchup with Tampa Bay, especially as a superior receiver to Michel. He's a sneaky RB2/Flex play if you're looking to differentiate (more on that below).

Forecasting WR Matchups

Mike Evans vs Jalen Ramsey is the showdown of the divisional round weekend. It's tempting to fade Evans because he has been known to shrink in tough matchups on occasion but that would be a mistake. When these teams met in Week 3, Evans went for eight receptions and 106 yards. That was his highest catch total in a single game this season and second-highest yardage total. His best game yardage-wise was last week. Evans will continue to be a target magnet for the duration of the postseason with Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown out.

Ja'Marr Chase averaged 11.4 yards per target this year, more than any receiver other than Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne. He saved his best for late in the season with a league-winning two-game stretch between Week 16-17 and then made a statement with 116 yards on nine catches in his first playoff game. Tennessee is a funnel defense, stout against the run but allowing the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. They don't have anyone who can slow, much less stop Chase.

The duo of Josh Norman and Emmanuel Moseley will attempt to cover Davante Adams. Good luck with that. This Packers team is on a mission and Aaron Rodgers is playing better than ever. When picking a Packer player, it can only be Rodgers or Adams.

Tyreek Hill had a down season by his standards but still finished with 1,239 yards and career-best 111 receptions. His 159 targets were seventh-most in the league. Buffalo's defense has been excellent even without Tre'Davious White but Hill has had no problem torching them recently. The only thing preventing Hill from being a must-play is Travis Kelce. In any matchup, Kelce is a threat to outproduce Hill and the TE premium points to him as the smarter choice.

Stefon Diggs also saw a downtick in production compared to 2020 but was still a rock solid WR1, especially down the stretch. Over the last four weeks of the regular season, his 43 targets were tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown for second-most among receivers. His 1,845 air yards were second in the NFL, so it's not as if he was seeing meaningless targets either. There's no doubting his talent and usage but it should be noted that he only caught two balls for 69 yards in the Bills' win over KC back in Week 5 and went for 77 yards in last year's AFC Championship game between these two. The Chiefs have two cornerbacks, Rashad Fenton and Mike Hughes, who graded out in the top-15 at their position according to PFF. Diggs is fine as a floor play but I'll opt to chase more upside elsewhere since the Bills will be underdogs in this game and may not be playing beyond this weekend.

How can you leave Cooper Kupp off any playoff league roster? Tampa has a solid defense but the weak point in their secondary is in the slot. It's not necessary to look elsewhere on the Rams roster unless you're looking to take a chance on a lower-owned player.

Don't Forget the TE Premium

One of the things that makes FFPC unique is the 1.5 points per reception for tight ends and ability to Flex multiple players at that position for a strategic advantage. George Kittle was non-existent in the Wild Card round, while Zach Ertz and Darren Waller saw their teams bounced in the first round.

The only multiple-TE stack that makes sense is Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski but that comes with risk. Their opponents in the divisional round were both top 10 defensively against the tight end this year. Locking in a TE from each team would mean forsaking Pat Mahomes or Tom Brady at QB, both of whom have a great chance of taking their teams back to the Super Bowl again as the second and fourth favored teams based on current odds. It also means passing on Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill.

The premium scoring helps when a tight end has a big game but don't force them into your Flex spots. This doesn't seem to be an ideal postseason to run with tight ends as the anchor to a fantasy team.

Differentiation Options

I've previously explained the rationale behind this but as a quick reminder, don't go all chalk. The best players don't always come away with the best fantasy games and you can't win a large tournament without distinguishing your roster from the rest of the crowd. Everyone will have Cooper Kupp as their Ram but unless you feel they are destined to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium, try using that WR spot on someone else and use a less obvious Ram with a chance for a big game instead.

Some differentiation plays to consider for Playoff Challenge #2 include: Cam Akers, D'Onta Foreman, Devin Singletary, Tee Higgins, Odell Beckham Jr., Mecole Hardman, Dawson Knox, and Tyler Higbee.

Sample Lineup

Try It Out

Now that you've got the lowdown on how the league is played and some pointers on building a championship team, it's up to you to take the next step. Sign up for the FFPC Playoff Challenge 2 and try it out!

Playoff leagues provide a different twist on season-long fantasy football and offer a way to come up with unique strategies that will keep you invested in the NFL postseason even if your favorite team isn't involved. Good luck, RotoBallers!

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