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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 17 matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. It's championship time! Last week featured some of the most unexpected results we've seen all year. There were spike performances and major duds from several of the most reliable players, along with a handful of options that went off on the benches of many. There were also a few untimely injuries. Thankfully, there aren't any more bye weeks to contend with, meaning we'll have access to every healthy option. Also, I hope everyone has a happy holiday season!
For those who are unfamiliar, each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. I also wanted to express my gratitude for some of the great resources that help me write this article each week such as Football Outsiders, Pro Football Focus, Rotovitz, Pro Football Reference, Draftkings Sportsbook, and Fantasy Points. Furthermore, a thank you is deserved by all of you for reading this article.
I will cover the entire Sunday slate of games plus the Monday Night Football game. There is also a separate article for the Thursday Night Football game each week, so be sure to read that as well. Hopefully, you had one of those spike performances or managed to grind out a victory to get your shot at a title! Regardless of what you have to play for this week, we'll make sure you're ready to go. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Falcons -3.0
Implied Total: Cardinals (19.5) vs. Falcons (22.5)
Pace: Cardinals (4th) vs. Falcons (27th)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: -10.5% Pass (29th), -13.6% Rush (27th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: 7.2% Pass (17th), 7.6% Rush (4th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: 7.6% Pass (19th), 2.3% Rush (27th)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 21.6% Pass (30th), 1.0% Rush (23rd)
Matchups We Love:
James Conner (RB, ARI)
Conner's role remains among the elite in the NFL at the running back position. He accounted for all but one backfield carry and was the only one to catch a pass. He's also got a nose for the end zone, something he'll have a real shot to do this week against Atlanta. He's a must-start.
Tyler Allgeier (RB, ATL)
The Falcons are still technically alive for the playoffs but they've turned to their rookies to see what they can do. It's meant a surge in volume for Allgeier, who led the backfield, playing on 59% of the offensive snaps, earning 18-plus touches in back-to-back weeks now. He's also surpassed 100 yards in both contests, not to mention he was utilized as a receiver last week catching four receptions for 43 yards. The matchup is good, plus they're the favorites, locking him in the top 24. Cordarrelle Patterson is a flex option because of the matchup and the number of times they run the ball.
Drake London (WR, ATL)
London did it again. Although they threw the ball twice as many times this week, it was still London who led this receiving corps with seven grabs for 96 yards. His draft pedigree, size, athleticism, and role are all coming to fruition as we hoped they would, just a lot later than expected. He's a solid top-36 wideout.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Cardinals WRs
It was a devastating day for DeAndre Hopkins, who despite finishing with 10 targets, only caught one pass for four yards. It could not have gone any worse, especially considering Greg Dortch led the team in targets with 11, receptions with 10, and yards with 98. Marquise Brown also had three receptions for 57 yards on reduced snaps, playing only 66%, which could explain the production from Dortch. The team was planning to start Colt McCoy, but he had a setback, so they will now start David Blough. It's not good news but the matchup is great, keeping Hopkins in the top 30, while Brown and Dortch are flex options.
UPDATE: Hopkins has been ruled out, Brown and Dortch are now intriguing top-36 receivers with Brown as the preferred target.
Injuries:
None
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Spread: Lions -6.0
Implied Total: Bears (23) vs. Lions (29)
Pace: Bears (29th) vs. Lions (9th)
Bears Off. DVOA: -4.2% Pass (27th), -1.8% Rush (12th)
Lions Off. DVOA: 27.8% Pass (7th), -3.3% Rush (15th)
Bears Def. DVOA: 21.2% Pass (29th), 7.1% Rush (29th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 15.6% Pass (28th), 2.2% Rush (26th)
Matchups We Love:
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
If you made a checklist of what you wanted on championship week, it would likely include two poor defenses, two capable offenses, and a home game in Detroit. Check, check, check. The last time these two teams met there were 61 points scored and over 700 yards of offense. It's a great spot to find options this week, starting with Goff, who played poorly last week on the road as an NFL signal-caller, but still came through for fantasy. He's a top-10 quarterback.
Lions WRs
Similarly, his weapons in the passing attack are all viable, led by Amon-Ra St. Brown, then D.J. Chark, and even Kalif Raymond or Josh Reynolds are flex-worthy. It's worth mentioning that tight end Shane Zylstra stole all three touchdowns last week, but that's more of a DFS situation to chase.
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
It was a cold windy day in Chicago, which should have meant many rushing attempts for the team's most dynamic runner. Unfortunately, Fields carried the ball just seven times for 11 yards, his least productive outing as a rusher all season, which could be correlated with his injuries. He was mediocre through the air, but that we anticipated given the weather forecast. There is some risk they limit his designed runs again against the Lions, but he's not on the injury report for Week 17, so he's back in the top 10.
UPDATE: Chase Claypool is active, offering another weapon for Fields, but not someone you want to start.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
After being one of the most stout defenses on the ground for several weeks, the Lions got embarrassed by the Panthers, who racked up 320 yards on 43 attempts. They also gave up three rushing touchdowns. It's hard to separate how much was them being on the road, how much was the Carolina offense, and how much is the defense getting worse. All that said, it bodes well for Montgomery, who is a talented runner and receiver, keeping him in the top 24. Khalil Herbert played on 41% of the offensive snaps with ten touches, which could impact Montgomery this week, but he's still a risky flex option himself.
Lions RBs
Detroit only ran the ball 17 times, which doesn't offer much opportunity for either back. Furthermore, D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams only combined for seven of them, along with another seven targets. The result was 39 total scrimmage yards between them, partially because Williams exited with an injury. The matchup is great and there will be lots of touchdown opportunities, placing them both in the top 30 with Swift as the preferred option.
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)
Kmet led the team in targets and receptions as he typically does. As usual, the production that followed was good but not great with five catches for 27 yards. He'll remain a top-12 option because of the matchup, over/under, and lack of receiving competition.
Injuries:
Chase Claypool (knee)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Spread: Jaguars -4.0
Implied Total: Jaguars (23.5) vs. Texans (19.5)
Pace: Jaguars (10th) vs. Texans (20th)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: 30.1% Pass (5th), -5.6% Rush (19th)
Texans Off. DVOA: -19.5% Pass (31st), -25.1% Rush (32nd)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 23.3% Pass (31st), -10.2% Rush (12th)
Texans Def. DVOA: 6.1% Pass (18th), 1.9% Rush (24th)
Matchups We Love:
Travis Etienne (RB, JAX)
Etienne is back to his workhorse role with 20-plus touches for over 100 scrimmage yards in back-to-back weeks, including a tough matchup against the Jets. Houston is a great matchup for running backs, thrusting him into the top 12.
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
Lawrence is on the path to stardom the way he's been playing. His final numbers weren't particularly impressive for fantasy last week, but no one expected them to be given the weather and matchup. Although Houston has been much softer on the ground, it doesn't mean they can't be beaten through the air. Additionally, they've been more competitive lately, offering Lawrence a better shot for a great game, keeping him in the top 12.
UPDATE: Lawrence is active as expected.
Evan Engram (TE, JAX)
Engram has been a top-five tight end in three of the past four weeks, making him about as reliable as you'll find at the position outside of Travis Kelce.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Jaguars WRs
Christian Kirk and Zay Jones get a pass for their poor output last week. It's not been as fruitful for receivers facing the Texans, but this offense is in the top 10 when it comes to pass rate over expectation, meaning they'll keep airing it out regardless of the game script. They're both in the top 24 with Kirk as more of the possession receiver and Jones as the big-play option.
Texans WRs
Brandin Cooks returned from injury and put together a nice game because he found the end zone. He also dominated the targets with Nico Collins out. The offense keeps scoring points and the matchup is good, keeping Cooks in the top 36 with Moore as a risky flex player.
Injuries:
Nico Collins (foot)
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -12.5
Implied Total: Broncos (16.25) vs. Chiefs (28.75)
Pace: Broncos (13th) vs. Chiefs (11th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: -7.3% Pass (28th), -14.4% Rush (29th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 42.7% Pass (1st), -3.8% Rush (17th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: -12.2% Pass (4th), -1.6% Rush (22nd)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: 10.3% Pass (22nd), -5.3% Rush (17th)
Matchups We Love:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes didn't play great, but he really didn't need to because the Seahawks never challenged them. He was still productive, totaling three touchdowns and 224 yards. He gets a rematch with a familiar foe, this time at home against Denver. Last time, the Broncos made it close and exposed the Kansas City defense, but after their performance against Los Angeles, that seems unlikely. Regardless of what the Broncos do, Mahomes is locked in your lineup.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Unsurprisingly, Kelce had another good game. He didn't find the end zone but still led the team in targets, receptions, and yards. It's a privilege to be able to start him.
Matchups We Hate:
Latavius Murray (RB, DEN)
Denver fell flat on their face. They allowed an astounding 51 points to the Rams, second to only the Cowboys who scored 54, which was the highest in a game all year. They trailed the entire game, forcing them to abandon the run, plus they turned to their healthy backups once it was out of hand, led by Chase Edmonds. It's nearly impossible to trust the offense to compete, making Murray a flex option that may or may not get sufficient volume.
Other Matchups:
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, KC)
Smith-Schuster led the receiving corps, but with Kelce and the backfield eating up so much volume, he was left with minimal production. He's still the best bet from this group, making him a top-30 receiver, but he has more volatility than other receivers because they can win without him, plus the Broncos have a talented secondary that features Patrick Surtain II.
Chiefs RBs
Speaking of the backfield, Jerick McKinnon continued his streak of touchdowns, hauling in another one through the air. However, that was about all he did week because the offense only ran 50 plays. It was also because Isiah Pachecho handled 14 of the 20 backfield attempts. They're both top-30 backs in a game they'll undoubtedly lead and win, on an offense that will generate scoring opportunities.
Broncos WRs
The only positive outcome was the increased volume for the receiving corps. Courtland Sutton made his return, but it was still Jerry Jeudy leading the way with six receptions for 117 yards. He's the big-play receiver, which is key because you're better to rely on that explosiveness than the accuracy and consistency of Russell Wilson. Jeudy will be a top-36 receiver with Sutton as a flex option.
UPDATE: Jeudy is active while Greg Dulcich has been ruled out, boosting the available targets for Jeudy and Sutton.
Injuries:
Greg Dulcich (hamstring)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Spread: Patriots -3.0
Implied Total: Dolphins (19) vs. Patriots (22)
Pace: Dolphins (17th) vs. Patriots (21st)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: 35.2% Pass (2nd), -2.8% Rush (14th)
Patriots Off. DVOA: -10.9% Pass (28th), 0.0% Rush (25th)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 12.6% Pass (25th), -13.6% Rush (9th)
Patriots Def. DVOA: -12.7% Pass (3rd), -12.9% Rush (10th)
Matchups We Love:
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)
After exploiting the Raiders for a massive day, Stevenson thoroughly disappointed everyone who depended on him. He's had two receptions in three straight weeks, which means he needs to do his damage on the ground. Cincinnati is a tough defense to do that against, limiting him to 30 yards with a forced fumble. Miami is an easier matchup, setting him up for a bounce-back performance as the favorites now that the Dolphins will be fielding their backup quarterback. He's in the top 15.
UPDATE: Damien Harris is off the injury report, indicating he'll play. Stevenson is also active as expected.
Matchups We Hate:
Dolphins RBs
Jeff Wilson Jr. returned and ruined the value of both backs. Raheem Mostert lost a lot of work, seeing only eight rushing attempts and two receptions on 26 offensive snaps. Wilson Jr. played on 30 of them and got the goal-line carry, bolstering his total. What's worse is the matchup was actually really good, so traveling to New England with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, forces both of them onto your bench as players that either find paydirt or bust.
Other Matchups:
Dolphins WRs
Jaylen Waddle took another short pass to the house for 84 yards and Tyreek Hill was one yard short of finding paydirt himself on a 52-yard bomb. Despite the struggles of their quarterback, these two only need one big play to satisfy fantasy managers. Unfortunately, they'll be without Tua Tagovailoa, which is a downgrade. It's also not a great matchup, but it's hard to push Hill outside the top 15 or Waddle outside the top 24.
Patriots WRs
Jakobi Meyers was the beneficiary of a fortunate deflection he caught for a touchdown. It also helped that New England was down 22-0 at halftime, forcing them to throw a lot. He and Kendrick Bourne really capitalized. There's a good chance they'll be playing from behind again this week, keeping Meyers in play as a top-36 receiver with Bourne as an upside flex option, assuming DeVante Parker is out again.
UPDATE: Parker and Jonnu Smith have been ruled out as expected.
Injuries:
Tua Tagovailoa (concussion)
DeVante Parker (concussion)
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants
Spread: Giants -5.5
Implied Total: Colts (16.25) vs. Giants (21.75)
Pace: Colts (8th) vs. Giants (15th)
Colts Off. DVOA: -32.2% Pass (32nd), -32.1% Rush (31st)
Giants Off. DVOA: 17.0% Pass (10th), 1.6% Rush (9th)
Colts Def. DVOA: 0.1% Pass (13th), -8.6% Rush (15th)
Giants Def. DVOA: 11.9% Pass (23rd), 10.5% Rush (31st)
Matchups We Love:
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
Barkley is heating up at the right time for fantasy managers. He touched the ball over 20 times for the third time in his past four games, with over 100 scrimmage yards yet again. He's primed to run all over the Colts en route to another top-10 performance.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
The switch to Nick Foles at quarterback did not help Pittman Jr. In fact it actually resulted in a worse game. Yes, the Chargers are a better defense than the Giants are, but it's still not a guarantee things improve dramatically this week. The other two receivers are completely off the radar, while Pittman is a flex option with a low floor.
Zack Moss (RB, IND)
Moss handled all but one carry as the clear lead back. He also added one reception. He's not a very talented receiver but he's suitable as an early down grinder, who can produce a decent game if he gets sufficient volume. Hopefully, the offense sustains drives and gets into scoring position more frequently, making him a viable top-36 back in a really good matchup.
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
Jones took advantage of an awesome matchup against the Vikings, throwing the ball 42 times for 334 yards. It was only the second time all year he's cleared 40 passing attempts or 300 yards, so expecting a repeat of that kind of volume seems foolish. Indianapolis will likely struggle to keep up, enabling Jones and Barkley to run the ball often, and with great success. He's still a streaming option because of his rushing upside but doesn't have the ceiling of some of the other players available.
Giants WRs
When the passing volume is near its peak, it's no surprise to see a good game from the receiving corps. Isaiah Hodgins found the end zone, and he, Darius Slayton, and Richie James all finished with 79 or more yards. It's unlikely all three of them can finish with that level of production this week, but certainly one of them could. Both Hodgins and James have been finding the end zone more often and receiving more targets than Slayton, making each of them a flex option.
Injuries:
None
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Eagles -6.5
Implied Total: Saints (17.75) vs. Eagles (24.25)
Pace: Saints (19th) vs. Eagles (14th)
Saints Off. DVOA: 6.1% Pass (19th), -10.0% Rush (22nd)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 29.9% Pass (6th), 14.9% Rush (1st)
Saints Def. DVOA: -2.7% Pass (11th), -2.8% Rush (21st)
Eagles Def. DVOA: -15.0% Pass (1st), -4.2% Rush (19th)
Matchups We Love:
Gardner Minshew (QB, PHI)
Minshew committed three turnovers, hurting his team en route to a tough loss. That said, he was exceptional at distributing the ball, utilizing the talent of his playmakers. It was also nice to see the team maintain their aggressive approach with 40 passing attempts compared to 29 rushing attempts. Additionally, he carried the ball four times, one of which he took in for a score. At home against an inferior opponent, he'll be a top-12 quarterback because of his weapons and the offensive play-calling.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Goedert only had three targets in his return from injury, but he made the most of them hauling in all three for 67 yards. He played on 94% of the offensive snaps, confirming he was a full-time player and will be again this week. He's a top-10 tight end.
Eagles WRs
Neither A.J. Brown nor DeVonta Smith struggled to produce with Minshew at the helm. Smith led the team in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns, showcasing his potential for spike weeks. Goedert didn't eat into his workload the way he has, which could be because it was his first game back. There's a strong chance he's more involved this week and the volume shifts in favor of Brown, but both are top-15 receivers because of their upside.
Matchups We Hate:
Saints Passing Attack
It was an exceptionally poor day for Andy Dalton and Co. due to the weather conditions. However, traveling to Philadelphia in a game the Eagles need to win to clinch the No. 1 seed is not a spot to expect better days. Taysom Hill remains a high-upside streamer because of his versatility while Juwan Johnson is a touchdown-dependent streamer, otherwise, there's no one here to rely on.
UPDATE: Chris Olave is active, but isn't a great option.
Other Matchups:
Eagles RBs
Speaking of turnovers, Miles Sanders also lost a fumble, which proved to be costly. Kenneth Gainwell operated as the receiving back catching all four of his targets for 41 yards, plus he rushed the ball four times. Sanders is still in a favorable spot because the Eagles should be leading, but he needs to score to produce a great game. He's a top-24 back, while Gainwell is a flex option.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Kamara delivered in a great spot as anticipated. The Eagles are a much better defense as a whole, but they have been susceptible to the run, offering Kamara another opportunity for a solid outing. Add in the missing receivers, which could mean more targets, despite reports about him not being utilized on third downs, and he becomes a top-24 back.
UPDATE: Kamara is good to go and will play.
Injuries:
Chris Olave (hamstring)
Jalen Hurts (shoulder)
Alvin Kamara (quadriceps)
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -3.0
Implied Total: Panthers (18.75) vs. Buccaneers (21.75)
Pace: Panthers (22nd) vs. Buccaneers (1st)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -10.5% Pass (30th), 1.0% Rush (10th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 16.4% Pass (12th), -20.6% Rush (30th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: 13.4% Pass (26th), -4.4% Rush (18th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: -2.9% Pass (10th), -9.8% Rush (13th)
Matchups We Love:
Chris Godwin (WR, TB)
The offense didn't look any better against Arizona, which is a problem because they're a plus matchup. That said, Godwin still earned double-digit targets, riding volume to another solid outing. He's about as reliable as you can ask for on an offense we know will pass the ball 40-plus times each game, keeping him in the top 15. Mike Evans's jump in production against the Bengals proved to be a one-hit-wonder. He's a volatile top-36 receiver.
UPDATE: Julio Jones is active, which reduces the appeal of Russell Gage but does not have a significant impact on Godwin or Evans.
Bucs RBs
Leonard Fournette took a stranglehold on the backfield this week, commanding 10 targets and 20 carries, leading the team in rushing attempts, rushing yards, receptions, and receiving yards. He was extremely impressive. Rachaad White still managed 11 touches, one of which resulted in a touchdown grab, but Fournette is undoubtedly the lead back. He's a top-15 back while White is in the top 30, thanks to their receiving roles.
Matchups We Hate:
Both QBs
Tom Brady fought and clawed his way to a win as he so often does, but for fantasy, it wasn't pretty. The Panthers are not a terrible matchup, but relying on Brady in the championships is too risky because his floor is so low. Sam Darnold had his best game of the year, throwing for 250 yards while scoring as a passer and a rusher. However, that was against Detroit, whose defense is abysmal. The Buccaneers are a much tougher matchup, pushing him out of contention as a streamer.
Other Matchups:
Panthers RBs
Carolina established a lead with their relentless ground attack and never looked back. They crushed what had been a stout Lions run defense to the tune of 320 yards on 43 carries, leading to a great day for both D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. Even Raheem Blackshear found pay dirt. Their ability to overcome that matchup provides optimism for this week, especially if they can keep the game close or establish a lead. The volume should be there for both, setting them up as upside top-30 backs with Foreman as the preferred option.
DJ Moore (WR, CAR)
Since Darnold took over as the starter, Moore has been fantastic in three of his four outings, finding the end zone with 73 or more receiving yards. There's always a degree of risk when you choose to depend on Darnold to support a receiver, but as the clear-cut No. 1 for this offense, Moore deserves consideration as a top-30 option with top-24 upside.
Injuries:
Julio Jones (knee)
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders
Spread: Commanders -2.5
Implied Total: Browns (18.75) vs. Commanders (21.25)
Pace: Browns (18th) vs. Commanders (25th)
Browns Off. DVOA: 16.4% Pass (11th), 4.2% Rush (8th)
Commanders Off. DVOA: -2.7% Pass (26th), -14.1% Rush (28th)
Browns Def. DVOA: 3.5% Pass (15th), 7.4% Rush (30th)
Commanders Def. DVOA: 3.7% Pass (16th), -12.8% Rush (11th)
Matchups We Love:
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, WR)
Robinson Jr. did all he could against the 49ers and their incredible run defense. No one should be surprised he struggled. All that really matters is he saw 22 of the 30 (73.3%) running back carries and played on 44% of the offensive snaps as the lead back. Cleveland is very much on the opposite end of the spectrum, positioning him nicely to rack up around 100 yards and score. He's a strong top-24 back. Antonio Gibson and Jonathan Williams played 21 and 20 snaps respectively, likely because of Gibson's injury limitations. With the two of them sharing snaps, they're off the radar unless Gibson misses, then Williams would be a flex option and Robinson would jump into the top 15.
UPDATE: Gibson has been ruled out, pushing Robinson into the top 15.
Commanders WRs
Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel all found paydirt, but it was Dotson who stole the show. He led the team in targets and tied for the most receptions. He's been incredible since returning from injury with the seventh-highest yards per route run during the past three weeks at 2.78. Surprisingly, the offense actually became more efficient when Carson Wentz took over. He's been named the starter again this week over Taylor Heinicke. It's worth noting he favored Samuel more and McLaurin less earlier in the season, but this is a time to trust in talent and play calling. Facing the Browns, they'll be able to run the ball more effectively, reducing their passing attempts, but Dotson and McLaurin are still top-24 receivers with Samuel as a flex option.
Matchups We Hate:
Deshaun Watson (QB, CLE)
There was extreme weather, limiting his ability to throw against the Saints, but it's far too risky to throw Watson out there until he proves he can succeed. Thus, in championship week, he'll be sitting on the bench one more time against the Commanders, who have allowed 234 passing yards or fewer in their past six games.
Other Matchups:
Nick Chubb (RB, CLE)
Chubb rode 25 touches to over 100 scrimmage yards, capitalizing on the weather. Unfortunately, this week the matchup is tougher and their opponent is more talented. It's a problem because we know that when they fall behind, Chubb loses carries and his ceiling drops. He's still in the top 30 but his upside isn't really there.
Browns WRs
Amari Cooper had an exceptional performance considering the circumstances, restoring some of the faith that he's getting healthier and may be past the hip injury. Donovan Peoples-Jones was a no-show, but it's hard to fault him. Washington has been limiting teams through the air since upsetting the Eagles in Week 10. There have still been some big performances from superstar-caliber players, but neither of these two fit that description, keeping them outside the top 24.
David Njoku (TE, CLE)
Njoku had five targets despite the negative situation, which reaffirms the volume he's receiving. Unfortunately, the matchup has been in the bottom five this season, dropping him to the streaming category given the defense he's facing and the lack of production from the Browns.
Injuries:
Antonio Gibson (knee/foot)
Matchup Analysis - 4:00 ET Games
San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: 49ers -9.5
Implied Total: 49ers (25.5) vs. Raiders (16)
Pace: 49ers (31st) vs. Raiders (23rd)
49ers Off. DVOA: 33.0% Pass (4th), -3.3% Rush (16th)
Raiders Off. DVOA: 5.8% Pass (20th), 5.0% Rush (7th)
49ers Def. DVOA: -10.2% Pass (5th), -26.0% Rush (1st)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 24.5% Pass (32nd), -3.9% Rush (20th)
Matchups We Love:
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
McCaffrey was a non-factor for three and a half quarters, sitting on the bench late in the game while Tyrion Davis-Price carried the ball. Thankfully, they converted a fourth down, put him back in to score, and he salvaged an otherwise poor performance. The shocking part was he only had two targets. It's an indication that Brock Purdy has the ability to throw downfield and find open receivers, which is good for the offense as a whole but could reduce the ceiling for McCaffrey. There's also a chance they give Davis-Price more work in the second half if they're up big.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
Kittle has been a playoff machine for the past two weeks, exploiting defenses and their inability to contain him. He's put together back-to-back multi-touchdown games and now gets the Raiders.
Matchups We Hate:
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
The entire offense came up short in a low-scoring road game against the Steelers. They do travel back home where weather will not be a factor, but they take on arguably the best defense in the NFL, especially against running backs. Furthermore, the team announced they'll be turning to backup signal-caller, Jarrett Stidham, which is bad news for the entire offense because he hasn't actually ever started an NFL game, he's only come in relief. It's really tough to bench Jacobs because of his talent, evidenced by the third-highest elusive rating, most missed forced tackles, and highest yards after contact. That said, he was not a part of the passing game last week and only totaled 50 yards, plus Stidham is in. He's a risky top-24 back.
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
Waller played on only 40% of the offensive snaps, which is actually lower than the 49% he played the week prior. Furthermore, he only ran 17 routes, although he was targeted on five of them (29.4%), which is an elite number. He also finished with four catches for 58 yards. He'll need to be opportunistic again, which is going to be more difficult with Stidham, dropping him to the streaming category.
Other Matchups:
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
Purdy was solid with his usual numbers of about 200 passing yards and two touchdowns. He's a safe bet for that or more this week against the league's worst pass defense, according to DVOA. He's a reliable streamer that could finish in the top 10 because of the weapons around him and the scheme he plays in.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Aiyuk had his best game since Purdy took over with five catches for 81 yards on eight targets, which is a great sign. It's also a fantastic matchup, keeping him in the top 36.
Davante Adams (WR, LV)
Adams has been on a downward trajectory over the past three weeks, with four or fewer receptions, while averaging about 41 yards per game. Much like Jacobs, benching someone of his caliber is nearly impossible, but with Stidham at the helm, he's a fade against San Francisco given the state of this offense and the matchup.
Injuries:
Deebo Samuel (ankle, knee)
New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Jets -2.0
Implied Total: Jets (22.25) vs. Seahawks (20.25)
Pace: Jets (6th) vs. Seahawks (12th)
Jets Off. DVOA: 1.8% Pass (23rd), -6.4% Rush (20th)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 25.1% Pass (9th), -10.2% Rush (23rd)
Jets Def. DVOA: -7.0% Pass (6th), -14.0% Rush (8th)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 9.5% Pass (21st), 2.1% Rush (25th)
Matchups We Love:
Mike White (QB, NYJ)
White is going to ride in as the knight in shining armor to save the offense in a very important game. He was cleared to play on Monday, which is a positive sign given how early in the week it was. He's fortunate to make his return against Seattle, who has been a plus matchup for several weeks. White is back in play as a streamer, but more importantly, boosts our confidence in his weapons.
Jets WRs
The primary beneficiary is Garrett Wilson, who struggled immensely with Zach Wilson in the wind on Thursday. Even Chris Streveler was an upgrade, meaning White being named the starter, catapults Wilson back into the top 15. It also makes Elijah Moore relevant as a top-36 receiver, while Corey Davis has flex appeal, especially in full-PPR formats.
Jets RBs
The matchup is even better for running backs, putting Zonovan Knight back on the map. We know he'll operate as the lead back, particularly on the ground, while Michael Carter takes on the receiving role. The Jets should be able to impose their will and run the ball successfully, landing Knight in the top 24. Carter is a top-36 back as well given the matchup and his pass-catching skill set with White at the helm.
Matchups We Hate:
Geno Smith (QB, SEA)
Smith was brutal in the first half against Kansas City, leading only one scoring drive for three points. The offense picked it up a bit after halftime, but that was mostly thanks to the running game. Tyler Lockett was out, Noah Fant was limited, and Marquise Goodwin re-aggravated his injury midway through the game, which proved to be too much for him to overcome. It's a really difficult matchup this week, plus Lockett is expected to be out again, sending Smith to your bench unless Lockett is back.
Other Matchups:
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
As the lone healthy receiving option, Metcalf finished with seven catches for 81 yards, although most of that was during the first half when the defense had to account for other players. He'll take on Sauce Gardiner in coverage, limiting his upside. He's still in the top 24 but with a lower ceiling.
UPDATE: Goodwin has been ruled out while Lockett is active for Sunday's game.
Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA)
It figures to be a rough day for Walker III as well, although it's easier to beat New York on the ground, which fits with the identity of their offense. Walker totaled 26 carries for 107 yards, which he'll need to do again this week, and hopefully find the end zone. The lack of targets is a problem, which we had seen start to climb before his injury, but was lacking again facing the Chiefs. He's a volume-based top-24 back.
UPDATE: Walker is active for Sunday's game.
Tyler Conklin (TE, NYJ)
The Seahawks are the second-best matchup for tight ends on the year, adding intrigue to Conklin. There is some concern with C.J. Uzomah stealing work, particularly touchdowns. However, the matchup and offense are set up to support a nice game from Conklin as a streamer.
Injuries:
Tyler Lockett (hand)
Travis Homer (ankle)
Marquise Goodwin (shoulder/wrist)
Kenneth Walker III (ankle)
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers -3.5
Implied Total: Vikings (22) vs. Packers (25.5)
Pace: Vikings (3rd) vs. Packers (30th)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 9.2% Pass (16th), -12.0% Rush (26th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 12.4% Pass (15th), 7.8% Rush (3rd)
Vikings Def. DVOA: 12.1% Pass (24th), -6.2% Rush (16th)
Packers Def. DVOA: -5.9% Pass (8th), 11.6% Rush (32nd)
Matchups We Love:
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Jefferson broke Randy Moss's franchise record for receiving yards, and now sits 209 yards back from breaking the single-season record held by Calvin Johnson a.k.a. "Megatron" himself. The sky is the limit for this extraordinary young wideout. With Jefferson and tight end T.J. Hockenson stealing all the production, neither Adam Thielen nor K.J. Osborn factored in against the Giants. They still combined for nine targets, and it's possible the pendulum swings their way this week, but they're flex options with a low floor against an above-average Green Bay secondary.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN)
As mentioned above, Hockenson tore apart the Giants with 13 receptions for 109 yards and two touchdowns. It's not an outlier either because he torched Seattle in Week 4 with eight receptions for 179 yards and two scores. Obviously, projecting it to occur on any given week is poor analysis, but knowing that it could, locks him into the top five.
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
The signal-caller supporting these two outstanding weapons is of course Cousins, who has more than held his own. He's totaled 300 or more yards in three straight games and is averaging three touchdowns per game during that stretch. The Packers are not as easy a matchup, but we've seen him fair well against a stronger defense like New England this season. He's firmly in the top 12.
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
This team is currently winning games through the air, and much like Thielen and Osborn, Cook was left out of the passing game this week. He still totaled 77 scrimmage yards, but with only three receptions and no touchdowns, it was a mediocre result. The Packers have been incredibly bad on the ground all year. However, they've played a little better the past two weeks limiting the Dolphins to 82 rushing yards and the Rams to 72 rushing yards. Nevertheless, Cook slots in as a top-12 back because of his receiving and goal-line roles.
Packers WRs
Christian Watson was on his way to a nice game last week before exiting with a hip injury. He's missed practice this week, meaning Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs could be the two receivers to exploit this matchup. Lazard would be the more reliable, high-volume receiver, while Doubs has the upside, but both are in the top 36 if Watson misses.
UPDATE: Watson, who was questionable to play, is active.
Matchups We Hate:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Much like Brady, Rodgers is finding ways to will his team to victory, but the fantasy production isn't there. He's only thrown one passing touchdown in each of his last three weeks with a high of 238 yards. The matchup is great, but it was a plus matchup last week in Miami and against Chicago three weeks ago, neither of which worked out for fantasy. Thus, he's on your bench in favor of steaming options with more upside.
Other Matchups:
Packers RBs
Aaron Jones keeps aggravating his ankle injury, limiting his snaps and touches. AJ Dillon played 57% of the offensive snaps last week compared to 38% for Jones, leading to five more carries and the same amount of receptions. Additionally, he found the end zone. It's a plus matchup, but they'll likely share the backfield again. Jones will still get the first shot to be the lead back. but Dillon has just as much chance to produce. They're both in the top 24.
Injuries:
Christian Watson (hip)
Aaron Jones (ankle)
Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Chargers -6.5
Implied Total: Rams (18.25) vs. Chargers (24.75)
Pace: Rams (26th) vs. Chargers (2nd)
Rams Off. DVOA: 2.4% Pass (22nd), -10.4% Rush (24th)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 0.9% Pass (24th), -11.5% Rush (25th)
Rams Def. DVOA: 9.4% Pass (20th), -14.5% Rush (7th)
Chargers Def. DVOA: -4.4% Pass (9th), 3.0% Rush (28th)
Matchups We Love:
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Ekeler is so dangerous because he can beat you on the ground or through the air. It was his two rushing touchdowns and 67 yards on 18 carries that led him to a top-five finish this week. Although four receptions aren't too bad either. He's arguably the most versatile back in the NFL.
Chargers WRs
Keenan Allen is a true target hog, finishing with 14 of them for the third time in his past four games. He's averaging nine receptions for about 93 yards during that stretch, locking him in the top 12. His counterpart, Mike Williams, continues to make big plays on minimal volume, averaging 14.8 yards per reception. He's a boom-bust top-24 receiver, taking on the Rams, whose secondary is not nearly as dangerous as it once was.
Matchups We Hate:
Gerald Everett (TE, LAC)
It's important not to overreact to one week's outcome for a player, but finishing with zero targets did not seem possible for Everett until Monday's game was over. He also played on only 54% of offensive snaps, while Tre' McKitty outperformed him. He's been streaky since Williams and Allen returned, but typically he catches four or five passes with the occasional spike week. He's not completely off the radar but given that the Chargers are heavily favored, it's possible he's not necessary for them to win, making him a riskier streamer.
Other Matchups:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Speaking of disappointment, enter Herbert into the conversation, who failed to find pay dirt for the second consecutive contest. He's also had three interceptions during those outings. Furthermore, it's been a problem for four weeks now, throwing for only two touchdowns during that stretch. The yards totals have been okay, but unless he starts finding the end zone with more frequency he's going to hurt your team. It's hard to predict whether the points come from the passing game and rushing attack, but Herbert is no longer a must-start if you have a high-upside quarterback to pivot to.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
Trusting any players on this team feels dicey, but Higbee shocked the world with a Kittle-esque performance on Sunday, finishing with nine receptions for 94 yards and two scores. It's worth noting that Denver has collapsed on itself, so it's not a guarantee things break his way against the Chargers, but he has to be identified as a streaming option because of what he did and has done in the past.
Cam Akers (RB, LAR)
Similarly, Akers was an unstoppable force, ending last week as the overall RB1. Kudos to anyone who saw that coming. His performance, although outlandish, was a little more predictable because he has been the lead back for the past four games, finding the end zone in two of the three weeks leading up to his outrageous day. When evaluating some of the other players available at the position, he warrants consideration as a top-36 back.
Injuries:
Ben Skowronek (calf)
Matchup Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -2.5
Implied Total: Steelers (16.25) vs. Ravens (18.75)
Pace: Steelers (16th) vs. Ravens (28th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: 5.4% Pass (21st), -2.5% Rush (13th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 14.3% Pass (14th), 11.0% Rush (2nd)
Steelers Def. DVOA: 5.8% Pass (17th), -14.6% Rush (6th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: -1.2% Pass (12th), -16.9% Rush (4th)
Matchups We Love:
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)
It was hard to be fully in on Freiermuth after his usage dropped and he goosed fantasy managers two weeks ago. He bounced back against Las Vegas, playing on 81% of the offensive snaps while leading the team in receptions and receiving yards as he has so often done this season. Baltimore is a better defense, but he's Kenny Pickett's preferred target, locking him in the top 12.
Matchups We Hate:
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Andrews busted in a favorable spot against Atlanta, ruining the last bit of trust fantasy managers had in him. They only attempted 17 passes because of the weather and game script, but there's no reason to believe he will succeed in a worse matchup this week against the Steelers, especially with Tyler Huntley as the starter. Some individuals will take the start Andrews because of who he is and what he's done approach, which is fine, but there are more than a handful of tight ends I'd rather play this week.
Other Matchups:
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
Harris led the team in targets, which is something he did at times last season but has not been a typical occurrence in 2022. He's handling the majority of carries and factoring in as a receiver, keeping him in the top 15, even though it's a difficult matchup.
J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL)
Dobbins was on his way to another 100-yard game, racking up 50 yards on the ground in the first half. Unfortunately, he only added nine more yards in the second half, resulting in a poor day. Gus Edwards finished with 99 yards and played only one fewer snap. There are consistently other players involved in the rushing attack, including Edwards, Justice Hill, and Huntley, which adds risk to Dobbins because he's not a pass-catcher. He'll be a top-30 back that needs to score or handle more work against Pittsburgh.
George Pickens (WR, PIT)
Pickens took advantage of a favorable matchup, catching the game-winning touchdown for a nice day. He's always a threat to score or hit a big play, making him an intriguing top-36 receiver against the Ravens. Diontae Johnson will likely receive more targets but do less with them, making him a flex option in full-PPR formats.
Injuries:
Lamar Jackson (knee)
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bills -1.0
Implied Total: Bills (25.25) vs. Bengals (24.25)
Pace: Bills (5th) vs. Bengals (24th)
Bills Off. DVOA: 34.7% Pass (3rd), 0.1% Rush (11th)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 26.8% Pass (8th), 6.8% Rush (5th)
Bills Def. DVOA: -6.5% Pass (7th), -20.1% Rush (3rd)
Bengals Def. DVOA: 2.3% Pass (14th), -9.1% Rush (14th)
Matchups We Love:
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
This ought to be one of the most entertaining games this week. It also has important implications for the playoffs and the No. 1 seed. Burrow threw a pair of interceptions that allowed the Patriots to climb back into the game, but he showed off the explosiveness of this offense, scoring 22 points in the first half. He accounted for all three of their touchdowns, adding 375 passing yards. With a high over/under at home in a potential shootout, Burrow has top-five potential.
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Across the field from him, Allen will be set to put on a show as well. The Bills pounded the rock effectively against Chicago, totaling 254 yards on 31 carries. They'll need to air it out more against Cincinnati, plus he can do just as much damage on the ground. He's got a shot to blow up this week as well.
Bengals WRs
Ja'Marr Chase led the team in targets with 11, but this time it was Tee Higgins who had the big game, hauling in eight passes for 128 yards and a score. They're both in the top 15. Tyler Boyd played on only 51% of offensive snaps, opening the door for Trenton Irwin, who finished with two touchdowns on 45% of snaps. Either Boyd or Irwin could be a factor this week, but they lower each other's ceiling.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
As mentioned above, Buffalo entered the game with a clear plan to run the ball in the cold against a vulnerable Chicago defense. It led to only 15 completions from Allen, two of which went to Diggs for 26 yards. Additionally, Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox caught the two touchdowns Allen threw. Three weeks ago against the Jets in a weather-filled game, he was shut down, then two weeks ago against Miami, he was mediocre with five grabs for yards, and now last week was a dud. It's been a tough stretch for Diggs, but this is a get-right spot in a game they'll need to throw and rely on him more. Davis is also in play as a boom-bust top-36 receiver given the situation.
Dawson Knox (TE, BUF)
Knox found pay dirt for the third straight week and received five targets. He's become a focal point of the offense, making him an intriguing start given the number of points that are expected to be scored. He's in the top 12.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Mixon saw a lot of volume because they were leading most of the game, but only totaled 65 rushing yards against the stout New England defense. However, he ended with seven receptions for 43 yards, which is tied for the most receptions he's had all season and is the third-highest receiving yard total. After two weeks of two and three targets, he's now had six and nine the past two weeks, which could be a result of him taking back his workhorse role. It's also worth noting that they lost La'el Collins, who's been alright for them on the O-line. The Bills are a tough defense, but his passing role and the over/under keep him in the top 15.
Bills RBs
Both Devin Singletary and James Cook had at least 11 rushing attempts, over 100 scrimmage yards, and found the end zone. The snaps were still in favor of Singletary 37-26, along with the total touches 14-12, but both backs are being utilized. It's unlikely they see the same volume this week, and the matchup is more difficult. However, they're on a good offense in what figures to be a high-scoring game, keeping them in the top 30 with Singletary as the preferred choice.
Hayden Hurst (TE, CIN)
Hurst is good to go and will play on Monday. He's a bit risky because there are so many receiving options, but he's a streaming option given the high over/under.
Injuries:
Hayden Hurst (calf)
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