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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 16 matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. It's playoff time! Last week featured the largest comeback in NFL history, three overtime games, and possibly the wildest finish to a game I've ever seen. There were some massive performances from unsung heroes as well as studs, mixed in with some untimely injuries. Thankfully, there aren't any more bye weeks to contend with, meaning we'll have access to every healthy option. It's also worth noting that because of Christmas, the majority of the games will be on Saturday, so make sure you have your lineup set that morning. Also, I hope everyone has a happy holiday season!
For those who are unfamiliar, each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. I also want to express my gratitude for some of the great resources that help me write this article each week such as Football Outsiders, Pro Football Focus, Rotovitz, Pro Football Reference, Draftkings Sportsbook, and Fantasy Points. Furthermore, a thank you is deserved by all of you for reading this article.
I will cover the entire Sunday slate of games plus the Monday Night Football game. There is also a separate article for the Thursday Night Football game each week, so be sure to read that as well. Hopefully, you're still in the running with a shot to advance to the finals. Regardless of what you have to play for this week, we'll make sure you're ready to go! If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.
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Matchups Analysis - Saturday 1:00 ET Games
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -6.5
Implied Total: Falcons (14.25) vs. Ravens (20.75)
Pace: Falcons (27th) vs. Ravens (29th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: 6.8% Pass (19th), 9.7% Rush (4th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 14.7% Pass (13th), 10.9% Rush (2nd)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 21.5% Pass (29th), 2.6% Rush (26th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: -2.2% Pass (9th), -14.6% Rush (6th)
Matchups We Love:
J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL)
While the rest of the offense is struggling, Dobbins is ramping up, seemingly looking better each week. After clearing 100 rushing yards against the Steelers, averaging 8.0 yards per carry, he bested that against the Browns, averaging 9.6 while totaling 125 yards on the ground. The matchup against the Falcons is another good one, locking him in as a top-24 back.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
It's so hard to pivot off of Andrews because of his potential upside and target share, yet he keeps disappointing week after week. Atlanta is a top-five matchup, making it hard to bench Andrews unless you have a more consistent player to start.
Matchups We Hate:
Drake London (WR, ATL)
London was the player Ridder had his eye on, targeting him on 11 of his 26 (42.3%) passes. Impressively, he managed to catch seven of those for 70 yards. It's not a great spot for the rookie, but he remains a flex receiver you can take a shot on.
Other Matchups:
Tyler Allgeier (RB, ATL)
The move to Desmond Ridder resulted in 13 completions compared to 39 rushing attempts, which is great for the backfield. It was particularly fruitful for Allgeier, who has taken over as the lead back. The issue is that he's still in a timeshare with Cordarelle Patterson and Ridder, which against a mediocre defense would be okay, but facing Baltimore is problematic. They could also fall behind and need to pass more, considering the Ravens are heavy favorites. He's still a top-36 back because of the volume he'll receive, with Patterson as a flex option.
Injuries:
Lamar Jackson (knee)
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Lions -2.5
Implied Total: Lions (23) vs. Panthers (20.5)
Pace: Lions (9th) vs. Panthers (21st)
Lions Off. DVOA: 25.1% Pass (8th), -0.5% Rush (12th)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -16.6% Pass (30th), -6.1% Rush (20th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 11.0% Pass (22nd), -3.3% Rush (19th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: 10.6% Pass (21st), -2.5% Rush (21st)
Matchups We Love:
Lions WRs
It was a tough week for this receiving corps, taking on the Jets and their talented secondary. Amon-Ra St. Brown emerged with double-digit targets as per usual, posting an acceptable seven receptions for 76 yards, while everyone else underwhelmed as expected. He'll likely lead the pack again this week in a much better matchup, thrusting him into the top 15. DJ Chark would be next in line as an upside top-36 receiver, leaving Kalif Raymond as a flex option.
Matchups We Hate:
Panthers RBs
The Panthers trailed from start to finish, forcing them to abandon their run-heavy approach. They only ran the ball 16 times, making it difficult for D'Onta Foreman or Chuba Hubbard to succeed. Foreman received the most carries but Hubbard was the pass-catching back, which proved to be more valuable. The Lions are completely shutting down the run, making it hard to trust either back this week as more than a touchdown-dependent top-36 back.
Other Matchups:
Lions RBs
The D'Andre Swift situation is no longer enjoyable to decipher. That said, the pattern that seems to hold true is when he is on the injury report he loses work and when he's off it to open the week he leads the backfield in offensive snaps, operating as the starter. He is off the injury report this week and has a plus matchup, meaning he should see the most snaps and have a productive game. He's a top-24 back against Carolina. Jamaal Williams has become a touchdown-or-bust top-36 back.
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Goff was fortunate to finish with the numbers he did. Brock Wright took a pass 51 yards to the house, otherwise, he would have thrown for 201 scoreless yards. Thankfully, he too takes on an easier defense this week, although he is on the road, which has limited his production. He remains a streamer whose weapons can carry him to a big day.
DJ Moore (WR, CAR)
The over/under is pretty good and the Detroit pass defense is not, meaning the passing attack has a strong chance to generate offense. The good news is that there's only one fantasy-relevant player, which is Moore. He's still risky because he's attached to Darnold, but given the opponent, he's a top-36 receiver.
Injuries:
None
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears
Spread: Bills -8.0
Implied Total: Bills (24.75) vs. Bears (15.75)
Pace: Bills (6th) vs. Bears (28th)
Bills Off. DVOA: 34.9% Pass (3rd), -3.4% Rush (15th)
Bears Off. DVOA: -4.4% Pass (27th), 0.8% Rush (9th)
Bills Def. DVOA: -8.0% Pass (7th), -18.1% Rush (3rd)
Bears Def. DVOA: 22.8% Pass (30th), 3.2% Rush (27th)
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Allen finally gave us the performance we'd been longing for the past few weeks, conveniently showing up just in time for the fantasy playoffs. He no longer appears bothered by the elbow issue, plus his rushing ability is as elite as almost any quarterback in the NFL. Additionally, there's a strong chance weather has an impact on this game, which impacts Allen less than it does pocket passers. He's in line for another massive day against the Bears.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Of the 300 yards and four touchdowns Allen threw, only 60 of them went to Diggs with none of the touchdowns. It was unfortunate timing, but if you lived to tell the tale you'll be in for a better output this week, even if the weather makes passing the ball more difficult. Interestingly enough, neither Gabe Davis nor Isaiah McKenzie found the end zone either, continuing their streak of poor games. They're both flex options because they have Allen throwing them the ball, but would be risky if the weather forecast comes to fruition.
Matchups We Hate:
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)
Kmet's allure was based on perceived volume with so many injuries to their receivers. He did lead the team in targets and receptions, but with only 152 yards and 14 completions from Justin Fields, a touchdown is really all that matters. There's a chance he finds pay dirt this week, but unless that happens it's likely to be another subpar day for Kmet, lumping him in with the group of tight ends that need to score to deliver.
Other Matchups:
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
Fields not only overcame a tough matchup, which we figured he could do, but he overcame his lack of weapons. His ability to make the most of his receiving corps and produce spectacular plays with his legs is uncanny, keeping him in the top 10 despite Buffalo coming to town. He's also weatherproof because he does so much damage on the ground.
Dawson Knox (TE, BUF)
The player to lead the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns was in fact, Knox. We've seen him flash from time to time this season, while also disappearing, but after seven-plus targets in consecutive weeks, the upside and volume he's receiving at the tight end position lock him in the top 10 unless the weather is an issue, then he would move to the streaming category.
Devin Singletary (RB, BUF)
This backfield has again devolved into being unappealing. Over the past two games, they've combined for 30 carries, nine receptions, and 167 scrimmage yards. When that's being split between two players, neither of which has as many rushing yards or rushing touchdowns as Allen, it's hard to find much value. Singletary is still the lead back, and the matchup is good, keeping him in the top 36 while Cook is a flex option. They would get a bump if the weather is bad because they'll lean on their rushing attack more.
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
Montgomery was fantastic against the Eagles, taking advantage of their inability to stop the run, plus he finished with the second-most receptions, scoring twice. The matchup is decent and the weather could influence the number of times they run the ball, locking him in as a top-24 back. Khalil Herbert will make his return this week, which negatively impacts Montgomery, but it would be risky to throw Herbert out there in his debut off the injury.
Injuries:
Chase Claypool (knee)
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns
Spread: Browns -3.0
Implied Total: Saints (14.75) vs. Browns (17.75)
Pace: Saints (18th) vs. Browns (19th)
Saints Off. DVOA: 6.5% Pass (20th), -10.7% Rush (23rd)
Browns Off. DVOA: 19.8% Pass (11th), 4.4% Rush (8th)
Saints Def. DVOA: 0.3% Pass (12th), -0.7% Rush (23rd)
Browns Def. DVOA: 4.5% Pass (16th), 9.0% Rush (30th)
Matchups We Love:
Nick Chubb (RB, CLE)
This game features two abysmal offenses facing two average defenses, both of which are better against the pass, plus the weather could be a factor. The result, as evidenced by the incredibly low over/under, is likely to be a slugfest with minimal points and two teams running the ball. This bodes well for Chubb, who came through in a tough matchup last week because they built up a lead and bled out the clock. He's still not in that elite tier because his receiving and touchdown upside are lower, but he's a solid top-24 back.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
On the opposite side of the ball, Kamara had his best game in several weeks, totaling over 100 scrimmage yards. We know the Browns have been a defense to target for running backs, keeping Kamara in the top 24 as well.
Matchups We Hate:
Both QBs
Neither quarterback has looked very good entering this game. Deshaun Watson continues to knock off the rust, utilizing his athleticism to add yards on the ground. While Andy Dalton loses work to Taysom Hill, removing any excitement he might have. Watson is a desperation streamer but both are best avoided.
Browns WRs
Amari Cooper was still dealing with a hip injury, but he still played on 73% of the offensive snaps. Donovan Peoples-Jones led the way with 77% and found pay dirt on Watson's only touchdown pass. It's unlikely to be a big week for either given the over/under and matchup, dropping them outside the top 24, especially with the weather set to be a factor.
David Njoku (RB, CLE)
Njoku tied Cooper for the team lead in targets with six, but only hauled in three of them for 28 yards. It's going to be another tough spot for him as the Saints have been the second-worst matchup on the season. The volume he receives keeps him in play as a top-12 tight end, but the upside is lower given the over/under and potential weather.
Other Matchups:
Saints TEs
Juwan Johnson is back to doing what he does best, find the end zone. He's scored in all but one of the past six games he's played in full, totaling seven touchdowns during that stretch, making him a streamer. Taysom Hill remains a gadget player who can do it all, and last week that resulted in a passing touchdown and over 100 total yards as the TE13. Much like Johnson, he's a tight end you can take a shot on, particularly because Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry are both out. The weather also offers a boost for Hill, who sees work on the ground each week.
Injuries:
Chris Olave (hamstring)
Jarvis Landry (ankle)
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -10.0
Implied Total: Seahawks (19.75) vs. Chiefs (29.75)
Pace: Seahawks (12th) vs. Chiefs (10th)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 28.6% Pass (5th), -10.9% Rush (24th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 41.3% Pass (1st), -2.5% Rush (14th)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 8.7% Pass (19th), 4.1% Rush (28th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: 12.6% Pass (25th), -3.9% Rush (18th)
Matchups We Love:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes was forced to air it out all game because the Chiefs needed overtime to take care of the feisty Texans. It led to another fantastic game from him, which is what you can expect against the Seahawks, who should also be able to score points, as evidenced by the high over/under.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
As anticipated Kelce also had a great game, even though he didn't find pay dirt. He's an exciting player to have in the playoffs.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, KC)
Again exactly as expected, Smith-Schuster and Kelce were the two reliable pass-catchers, both finishing with 10 receptions on 10 targets for a 100-percent catch rate. The next closest receiver was Marquez Valdes-Scantling who had five targets. Smith-Schuster will be a top-24 receiver again this week, while Valdes-Scalting is a flex option.
Chiefs RBs
While he isn't by definition a receiver, Jerick McKinnon has been excellent in the passing game. His line of eight catches for 70 yards and a score would be a great day for a wide receiver, never mind the 10 carries for 52 yards and a touchdown on the ground. His role parallels players like Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler right now, which we know is extremely valuable. It's also worth noting that Isiah Pachecho lost a fumble for the fourth time this season. It led to fewer carries for him, resulting in a disappointing performance given the juicy matchup. Some of that can be attributed to the unexpected game script, but McKinnon has to be viewed ahead of him currently. Seattle is terrible against the run, placing McKinnon in the top 15 and Pachecho in the top 24.
DK Metcalf (WR, SEA)
On the opposite side of the ball, the Seahawks are coming off a tough loss to the 49ers. Metcalf drew tough coverage from Charvarius Ward, but still managed seven grabs for 68 yards. He'll get a much better matchup this week, plus the team will be without Tyler Lockett, keeping him in the top 15. Replacing Lockett will be Marquise Goodwin, who has made some splash plays this season and produced when called upon. He has big play potential, averaging 14.3 yards per reception, and he's found the end zone four times on only 27 catches, making him a high-upside top-30 receiver, as long as he's active. He's listed as questionable.
UPDATE: Goodwin is active and good to go.
Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA)
In his first game back from injury, Walker III played on 75% of the offensive snaps and ran 31 routes, third-most among all running backs last week. It didn't result in a huge day because of the matchup, but the usage was fantastic, setting him up nicely as a top-24 back against the Chiefs. Both he and DeeJay Dallas are listed as questionable, leaving Travis Homer as the only one guaranteed to play. You would expect Walker to play given that he played on Thursday, but we'll know more leading up to the game.
UPDATE: Walker III is active and good to go with no limitations.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Geno Smith (QB, SEA)
Smith did all he could, finding the end zone once while not turning the ball over. Losing Lockett is problematic, but we've seen Denver and Houston put up 28 and 24 points respectively, with fewer weapons and worse quarterbacks, so it's not panic time for Smith. He still has a great matchup in an important game with enough weapons to keep him in the top 12.
Injuries:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle)
Tyler Lockett (hand)
Mecole Hardman (abdomen)
DeeJay Dallas (ankle)
Kenneth Walker III (ankle)
Noah Fant (knee)
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Vikings -4.0
Implied Total: Giants (22) vs. Vikings (26)
Pace: Giants (15th) vs. Vikings (7th)
Giants Off. DVOA: 19.8% Pass (10th), 0.6% Rush (10th)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 8.1% Pass (17th), -10.3% Rush (22nd)
Giants Def. DVOA: 12.5% Pass (24th), 10.1% Rush (31st)
Vikings Def. DVOA: 13.3% Pass (27th), -8.9% Rush (15th)
Matchups We Love:
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
Cousins was of course the leader of the team referenced in the introduction who led his team to the largest comeback in NFL history. The poor play of the Colts defense during the second half was also a factor, but it did showcase just how potent this offense can be when they're firing on all cylinders. It would be unreasonable to expect another 400-plus yards and four-touchdown performance from Cousins, but the matchup is good and his weapons are healthy, keeping him in the top 12.
Vikings WRs
Justin Jefferson briefly exited the contest, providing a scare for fantasy managers everywhere, but he returned to the field in time to add another massive outing to his resume. He's absolutely unstoppable. Adam Thielen found the end zone as he has historically been known to do. However, it was K.J. Osborn that stole the show, piling up 10 receptions for 157 yards and a touchdown. It's most likely an outlier, plus Cousins attempted 54 passes, which will surely drop this week, but it makes both receivers flex options with Thielen as the preferred choice against the Giants.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN)
Hockenson maintained his role and volume, but the production was disappointing. That said, he's averaged about eight targets per game since joining Minnesota, locking him in as a top-10 tight end.
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
Cook looked fantastic, ripping off long plays and averaging 5.6 yards per carry. He failed to score on the ground but took a screen pass 64 yards to the house, which more than made up for it. He's been better since their matchup against the Jets, ranking 13th in elusive rating and 11th in missed tackles forced. He'll be a top-12 back against New York.
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
Similarly, Barkley was producing chunk plays against Washington, especially at the end of the game when everyone knew they were going to run the ball. He had a sequence that featured 12-yard, 15-yard, and 14-yard runs on consecutive plays. The Giants were able to keep the game close, playing with a lead wire-to-wire, enabling them to lean on their rushing attack and defense. It might be more difficult to execute that strategy this week, but his eight targets represent a safe floor that keeps him in the top 12.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
Jones added to their ground game with 10 carries for 35 yards, plus he played mistake-free football, which is exactly what they want from him. The rushing upside keeps him in play as a streamer, but with such a lackluster cast of receivers, his ceiling remains lower.
Giants WRs
Jones only completed 21 passes for 160 yards, leaving very little production to be split among this receiving corps. Additionally, Barkley led the team in targets, removing more opportunities from this group. They should need to pass more this week so Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins are all flex options, with Slayton having the highest ceiling.
Injuries:
None
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots
Spread: Bengals -3.0
Implied Total: Bengals (22.25) vs. Patriots (19.25)
Pace: Bengals (23rd) vs. Patriots (26th)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 25.1% Pass (9th), 6.4% Rush (6th)
Patriots Off. DVOA: -2.9% Pass (24th), -7.7% Rush (21st)
Bengals Def. DVOA: 0.0% Pass (11th), -8.3% Rush (16th)
Patriots Def. DVOA: -15.7% Pass (3rd), -12.8% Rush (9th)
Matchups We Love:
None.
Matchups We Hate:
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
The Bengals played a solid Buccaneers defense last week that is difficult to run on but were able to win the game through the air, which is similar to what you can expect this week against the Patriots. Mixon was inefficient as a runner, averaging 1.9 yards per carry. Thankfully, he hauled in five passes for 33 yards to salvage his day. Samaje Perine wasn't as involved as a receiver but still stole seven carries from Mixon while playing on 38% of the offensive snaps. Mixon will need to rely on his receiving role or a touchdown against New England, dropping him outside the top 15. Perine would be a risky flex option.
Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)
Meyers finished as the most productive receiver, but no one will remember what he did during the first 59 minutes of the game because of his absurd decision to lateral the ball back to Mac Jones. The result was a walk-off pick-six by Chandler Jones for the Raiders, producing a Hollywood-esque ending. Despite the blunder, Meyers remains the receiver to target from this team, but against the Bengals, he's a volume-based flex option if he's active.
UPDATE: Meyers will play on Saturday.
Other Matchups:
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Burrow managed to overcome a tougher matchup because Tampa Bay's offense struggled to sustain drives and committed turnovers. He took advantage of the shorter fields, cashing in for touchdowns for times. There's no reason to believe he can't follow that same recipe to success this week, especially with all his receivers on the field and getting healthier. He's still in the top 10 despite the poor matchup.
Bengals WRs
Ja'Marr Chase dominated with a 33% target share, continuing his role as the No. 1 option. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd were both questionable entering the game, but suited up and found the end zone. Between Chase operating as a target hog and the backfield's level of involvement in the passing game, the volume for these will be a little more volatile. That said, Cincinnati is second in pass rate over expectation, keeping Higgins in the top 15 and Boyd in the top 24.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)
Many of us were left making difficult decisions regarding Stevenson because he played in the 4:00 ET games on Sunday and was listed as questionable. If you started him, you were rewarded with his best game of the season, racking up 172 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He's known more for being an excellent pass-catcher, but he proved he can do it all. The matchup this week is more difficult, but it's hard to fade him because of what we saw last week and how impressive he's been when healthy. Even if Damien Harris can suit up, Stevenson remains a top-15 back. They're both currently listed as questionable, but Stevenson should be active.
UPDATE: Stevenson is active while Harris is out.
Hayden Hurst (TE, CIN)
Hurst has practiced all week and is questionable to play. It's a crowded receiving core, plus it's his first game back, making him a riskier streaming option if he's active.
UPDATE: Hurst has been ruled out, which benefits Boyd and Higgins mostly.
Injuries:
Hayden Hurst (calf)
Damien Harris (thigh)
DeVante Parker (concussion)
Jakobi Meyers (shoulder)
Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle)
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Titans -3.0
Implied Total: Texans (16.25) vs. Titans (19.25)
Pace: Texans (20th) vs. Titans (32nd)
Texans Off. DVOA: -20.5% Pass (31st), -25.4% Rush (32nd)
Titans Off. DVOA: 9.9% Pass (16th), -5.6% Rush (19th)
Texans Def. DVOA: 8.2% Pass (17th), 0.6% Rush (24th)
Titans Def. DVOA: 14.1% Pass (28th), -23.6% Rush (1st)
Matchups We Love:
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Henry dreams of playing the Texans, riding a streak of four straight 200-plus yard rushing games on the ground, including their Week 8 matchup earlier this season. It would be bold to project a 200-yard game for any running back, but if anyone can do it, it's Henry.
Matchups We Hate:
Titans Passing Attack
Coincidentally, the Titans were led by Malik Willis in that contest, which will be the case in Week 16. He only attempted 10 passing attempts in that one, removing any opportunity to start any member of the passing attack including Treylon Burks, who is listed as questionable.
Texans Players
As for the Texans, they're likely to be trailing and airing it out, making the backfield difficult to trust. They've proven they can compete with some of the better teams in the NFL the past two weeks, but in a divisional clash on the road, it's best to temper expectations, especially with injuries to many of their receivers. These are also two teams that play slower, reducing the number of overall plays. Brandin Cooks and Chris Moore are listed as questionable, but both are risky flex options if active.
Other Matchups:
None
Injuries:
Brandin Cooks (calf)
Nico Collins (foot)
Treylon Burks (concussion)
Ryan Tannehill (ankle)
Chris Moore (foot)
Matchup Analysis - Saturday 4:00 ET Games
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -6.5
Implied Total: Commanders (15.5) vs. 49ers (22)
Pace: Commanders (24th) vs. 49ers (31st)
Commanders Off. DVOA: -8.0% Pass (28th), -12.0% Rush (25th)
49ers Off. DVOA: 31.4% Pass (4th), -5.5% Rush (18th)
Commanders Def. DVOA: 3.1% Pass (15th), -15.7% Rush (4th)
49ers Def. DVOA: -14.3% Pass (5th), -23.2% Rush (2nd)
Matchups We Love:
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
It was business as usual for McCaffey on Thursday, clearing 100 scrimmage yards and finding the end zone. The matchup against Washington is more challenging, but his workhorse role makes him matchup-proof.
Matchups We Hate:
Commanders RBs
Brian Robinson Jr. was in a great spot against the Giants. He mostly delivered, with over 100 scrimmage yards but had a rushing touchdown called back, which would have been the cherry on top. Unfortunately, he now faces a very stout San Francisco defense on the road in a game his team is expected to be losing. He profiles as more of the grinder back, while Antonio Gibson is the pass-catcher, capping the upside of either player. Robinson would still be the preferred choice but both are outside the top 24 this week.
49ers WRs
Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, and Ray-Ray McCloud III combined for only 12 targets. We know the 49ers want to run the ball, featuring McCaffrey and Kittle, making it hard to trust any of the receivers. Furthermore, the Commanders are an above-average defense, causing all of them to be best left on your bench.
Other Matchups:
George Kittle (TE, SF)
The other star of the show was Kittle, who turned two of his four receptions into touchdowns totaling 93 yards. It's been the most difficult matchup for tight ends over the course of the season, but much of that is the personnel they've faced. Plus, you can bet the coaching staff will scheme him into the game plan, especially without Deebo Samuel, keeping him in the top 10.
Commanders WRs
Jahan Dotson had his best game of the year, showcasing why he was a first-round pick in the 2022 draft with four grabs for 101 yards and a score. He also tied Terry McLaurin in targets with six, confirming his ascent into the No. 2 role. McLaurin has been impressive, ranking 16th in yards per route run at 2.03, while Dotson has six touchdowns in seven games. It'll be tough sledding against the 49er's secondary, but they have given up some big plays, which both these receivers are capable of, keeping them in the top 30.
Injuries:
None
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -4.5
Implied Total: Eagles (21) vs. Cowboys (25.5)
Pace: Eagles (16th) vs. Cowboys (4th)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 26.2% Pass (7th), 19.5% Rush (1st)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 11.0% Pass (15th), 8.1% Rush (5th)
Eagles Def. DVOA: -17.4% Pass (2nd), -2.7% Rush (20th)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -14.8% Pass (4th), -12.7% Rush (10th)
Matchups We Love:
Cowboys RBs
Tony Pollard led the backfield touches with 23 compared to 18 for Ezekiel Elliott. He also went over 100 total scrimmage yards again, although it was Elliott who found pay dirt, as he so routinely does. He's now racked up nine touchdowns in his past seven games, making him a good bet to score again this week. The Eagles are more vulnerable on the ground, which plays into the strength of Dallas, who is ranked No. 1 in offensive rush DVOA. Pollard is locked in as a top-12 back with Elliott firmly in the top 24.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Prescott threw two interceptions and took three sacks in a losing effort. Fortunately, he threw three touchdowns, finishing as the QB8. At home facing a backup quarterback against a talented secondary, there's a strong chance they limit the number of passing attempts for Prescott and lean on their backfield. He's still firmly in the top 10 because of the available options this week but is likely to finish in the back half of the top 12 again.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
Lamb has broken out the way many hoped he would when the year began. He now has 100-plus receiving yards or a touchdown in five of his past seven games, proving he can succeed in almost any situation. Even with Noah Brown finding the end zone twice, Lamb had a great game. He's a must-start. Brown finished with more targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns than Michael Gallup, muddying the pecking order in this receiving corps. The matchup isn't great, making both flex options.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)
Much like the receivers, it was their second tight end, Peyton Hendershot who found pay dirt. Schultz is competing with a lot of players for volume, which makes him more volatile, but he's one of the top options in a powerful offense that scores often, keeping him in the top 12 despite a tougher matchup.
Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)
With the transition to Gardner Minshew, the Eagles may give more work to Sanders to take some of the pressure off their signal-caller. Additionally, he won't have to deal with Jalen Hurts stealing goal-line carries, including two from the one-yard line against the Bears. However, he'll still be sharing work with Kenneth Gainwell, who continues to be their preferred choice in the passing game, limiting his upside if they fall behind, making him a touchdown-dependent top-24 back.
Eagles WRs
Obviously, the move to Minshew is a downgrade for the receivers, but they've been far too good to completely bail out. Minshew is competent enough to keep the offense moving behind an elite offensive line, plus the Cowboys have given up 67 points in the past two weeks. A.J. Brown will still be the in his alpha role, keeping him in the top 15. The concern is for DeVonta Smith, who will also have to contend with Dallas Goedert returning. He falls outside the top 24 against Dallas.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
As mentioned, Goedert will be back on the field this week, which is great news for fantasy managers who made it this far without him. There's certainly risk in his first game back, but the team held him out last week, seemingly playing it safe. He immediately jumps into the top 10.
Injuries:
Jalen Hurts (shoulder)
Matchup Analysis - Saturday Night Football
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Steelers -2.5
Implied Total: Raiders (17.75) vs. Steelers (20.25)
Pace: Raiders (22nd) vs. Steelers (13th)
Raiders Off. DVOA: 8.1% Pass (18th), 6.2% Rush (7th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: 6.0% Pass (21st), -2.0% Rush (13th)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 24.8% Pass (31st), -1.8% Rush (22nd)
Steelers Def. DVOA: 8.5% Pass (18th), -13.8% Rush (8th)
Matchups We Love:
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
The Steelers dominated the game, primarily by running the ball, finishing with 45 attempts for 156 yards. Harris handled 24 of those carries for 86 yards and a score. Neither back was targeted more than once because they only threw the ball 22 times. Harris is in line for another good game against a poor Las Vegas defense, who just gave up 172 yards to Stevenson. He's a strong top-24 back.
Davante Adams (WR, LV)
Adams led the team in targets and tied for the most receptions. However, the production didn't follow, plus he didn't catch any of the three touchdowns Carr threw. Much like Jacobs, Adams is too elite to do anything rash with, plus the matchup is better this week. As mentioned above, Renfrow made his return to action, although it was still Mack Hollins who operated as the No. 2 receiver, playing 88% of the offensive snaps with eight targets, making him a flex option.
Matchups We Hate:
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Credit to Carr who found the end zone three times against a tough defense in the wild New England game, but relying on him to repeat those numbers on the road in Pittsburgh is risky. With Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow back, he has a nice enough complement of weapons to keep him in play as a streamer but it'll need to be on the back of touchdowns again.
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)
Despite being taken off the injury report, Freiermuth only played 38 offensive snaps, behind Zak Genry who played 42. The result was zero targets. It's tough to trust him because of his usage. He's a very risky streamer.
Other Matchups:
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Jacobs handled all but one carry and caught two of the four running back receptions. He also totaled over 100 scrimmage yards but did not find pay dirt because the team scored through the air. He has the ninth-highest elusive rating and leads the league in both missed tackles forced and yards after contact. He also has the most rushing yards. He'll face another stout defense this week, but he's still a top-12 back.
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
Despite playing only 49% of the offensive snaps, Waller earned three targets, all of which he caught, plus he added a trip to the end zone. It's a promising sign for managers needing to start him this week. There are still likely to be limitations to his role, but he's back in contention as a top-12 tight end.
Steelers WRs
Freiermuth's absence opened up more targets for the receivers, most of which went to Diontae Johnson, as they frequently do. He's now put together back-to-back useable games with Freiermuth playing fewer snaps, adding intrigue to him, especially given the matchup, although he is listed as questionable. George Pickens caught a 38-yard and a 16-yard pass on five targets. This group will be getting Kenny Pickett back in at quarterback, which has been more favorable for Pickens, making each of them a flex option with him as the favorite.
Injuries:
Diontae Johnson (toe)
Matchup Analysis - Sunday Games
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -3.5
Implied Total: Packers (23.25) vs. Dolphins (26.75)
Pace: Packers (30th) vs. Dolphins (17th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 12.9% Pass (14th), 10.2% Rush (3rd)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: 37.5% Pass (2nd), 0.3% Rush (11th)
Packers Def. DVOA: -2.4% Pass (8th), 11.8% Rush (32nd)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 12.6% Pass (26th), -12.3% Rush (11th)
Matchups We Love:
Tua Tagovaila (QB, MIA)
Tagovailoa may have lost the game against the Bills, but he held his own in a playoff-type atmosphere on the road in a divisional clash. It offers optimism for this week's matchup against the Packers, who have been brutal on the ground but can still be beaten through the air by the top offenses, especially given the high over/under. He's a top-10 quarterback.
Dolphins WRs
One of the biggest questions entering this game for fantasy was what to do with Jaylen Waddle, who is one of the most explosive receivers in the NFL. Thankfully for anyone who chose to lock him in, he did exactly that, hauling in a 69-yard touchdown pass to boost his total output. Tyreek Hill was fantastic as always, meaning they can both be viewed as top-20 receivers at home against Green Bay.
Raheem Mostert (RB, MIA)
With Jeff Wilson Jr. out, Mostert exploded for 136 yards on 17 carries, adding a 20-yard reception. He was breaking off huge plays, including a 67-yard run. He slowed down as the game went on, but it provides a glimpse of his ceiling when Wilson Jr. misses. He's a top-24 back if Wilson is out.
UPDATE: Wilson Jr. is active, Mostert drops to a top-30 back and Wilson becomes a flex option because the matchup is so good.
Packers RBs
AJ Dillon entered the game coming off two productive outings, one against the Eagles when they ran the ball a ton, and one when Aaron Jones left due to injury, so it seemed more situation-based. However, he opened the game on fire, finding the end zone twice while totaling 71 scrimmage yards before exiting with a head injury. Jones later found pay dirt as a receiver, totaling over 100 scrimmage yards himself. It's possible for both of these backs to succeed because they account for so much of the offense, including 28 carries and eight targets on Monday. Jones is still the lead back, but both are top-24 options against Miami.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Rodgers really didn't have to do too much in this one because the Rams' offense is so poor. That won't be the case against the Dolphins, who will force Green Bay to keep pressing, which should lead to more production as a top-12 quarterback.
Packers WRs
Christian Watson's touchdown streak came to an unfortunate end. He still played on 87% of the offensive snaps, ran 31 routes, and led the team in targets, but his production was mediocre. Having Romeo Doubs, Allen Lazard, and Randall Cobb all active does allow Rodgers to spread the ball around more. Watson is still the preferred choice as an upside top-24 receiver, while Lazard is a flex option.
Injuries:
Jeff Wilson Jr. (hip)
Aaron Jones (knee)
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Broncos -3.0
Implied Total: Broncos (19.75) vs. Rams (16.75)
Pace: Broncos (11th) vs. Rams (25th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: -3.8% Pass (25th), -14.1% Rush (26th)
Rams Off. DVOA: -4.3% Pass (26th), -16.4% Rush (29th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: -20.1% Pass (1st), -5.3% Rush (17th)
Rams Def. DVOA: 11.7% Pass (23rd), -14.9% Rush (5th)
Matchups We Love:
Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)
Although they won the game, Brett Rypien proved to be worse for the offense than Russell Wilson. Thankfully, Wilson cleared the concussion protocol and will play this week. It's a great matchup because the Rams have essentially tapped out and are missing so many players. Jeudy still had a decent game, leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards. If Courtland Sutton is out again, he'll be a top-30 receiver with top-24 upside against Los Angeles.
UPDATE: Sutton is active, which removes some of the upside for Jeudy. He's a flex option in his first week back because it's a good matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Rams Passing Attack
After his debut heroics against the Raiders, Baker Mayfield and the passing attack returned to being a below-average unit that struggles to compete. They only ran 45 offensive plays, which was the lowest in the league last week. Add in a very difficult matchup against Denver, and no one is worth starting.
Cam Akers (RB, LAR)
Akers gets a separate write-up here because he finished with 100 scrimmage yards last week, operating as a workhorse back. However, that was against one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, which will not be the case this week. He'll still get the majority of the work, but without a touchdown, he's unlikely to come through, making him a desperation flex option.
Other Matchups:
Latavius Murray (RB, DEN)
Much like Akers, Murray is locked into a great role, getting most of the rushing work along with the goal-line role. It worked out well last week because the offense kept the game close, eventually established the lead, and scored 24 points. Fortunately, all of those things are repeatable this week as favorites on the road against the Rams, keeping Murray in the top 30.
UPDATE: Murray is active as expected.
Greg Dulcich (TE, DEN)
The player it didn't work out for was Dulcich, who only saw three targets, and watched his teammate, Eric Tomlinson score. It ought to be better with Wilson at the helm, pushing him back into the streaming conversation.
Injuries:
Ben Skowronek (calf)
Courtland Sutton (hamstring)
Latavius Murray (foot)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Buccaneers -7.5
Implied Total: Buccaneers (24) vs. Cardinals (16.5)
Pace: Buccaneers (1st) vs. Cardinals (3rd)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 17.6% Pass (12th), -21.6% Rush (30th)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: -10.0% Pass (29th), -16.4% Rush (28th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: -1.5% Pass (10th), -11.7% Rush (12th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: 10.0% Pass (20th), 4.4% Rush (29th)
Matchups We Love:
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Brady had his team in position for an impressive victory over the Bengals until he committed four turnovers, directly leading to touchdowns for Cincinnati. It's unfortunate because the final numbers were great, passing for 312 yards and three touchdowns, but it was all for not. From a fantasy perspective, it was nice to see him reach those totals, which he'll have a shot to do again this week against a poor defense. This game also features two of the fastest-paced teams in the NFL, meaning there should be a lot of plays. Brady is back in the top 12.
Buccaneers WRs
For all the talk of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, each of which totaled 83 yards, it was Russell Gage who led the team in targets and found the end zone twice. It's unlikely he continues to be the No. 1 option, but it puts him back on the radar as a flex option. Godwin also found pay dirt, hauling in all eight of his targets. Evans only had five receptions, but it was his best game in several weeks. Godwin remains in the top 15 with Evans as a top-30 receiver.
Buccaneers RBs
Rachaad White did not gain ground on Leonard Fournette, it was actually the other way around. Fournette played on 58% of the offensive snaps and touched the ball 14 times compared to 12 for White. The timeshare will persist, making it hard to predict who will have the better week, but against a terrible Cardinals run defense, they'll both be top-30 backs.
Matchups We Hate:
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARI)
The quarterback injuries are destroying the fantasy value of the players in this offense. Colt McCoy was the most recent signal-caller to go down, suffering a concussion that will keep him sidelined on Sunday. Unfortunately, that means Trace McSorley will take over, which is a real problem for the receivers. While Hopkins finished with seven passes for 70 yards, it's a bit deceiving because a lot of that was with McCoy. He caught only three passes for 28 yards from McSorley, whose final line was seven-of-15 passing for 95 yards and two interceptions. As an elite receiver, he's not a must-bench, but he's definitely a fade against the Buccaneers.
UPDATE: Marquise Brown is active.
Other Matchups:
James Conner (RB, ARI)
Conner remains the player to trust in this offense because of his three-down skill set and role. His ceiling takes a hit because of the quarterback change, but he's still a top-24 volume-based back.
Injuries:
Colt McCoy (concussion)
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Chargers -4.5
Implied Total: Chargers (24.75) vs. Colts (20.25)
Pace: Chargers (2nd) vs. Colts (8th)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 2.5% Pass (23rd), -15.2% Rush (27th)
Colts Off. DVOA: -27.4% Pass (32nd), -24.3% Rush (31st)
Chargers Def. DVOA: 0.4% Pass (13th), 2.4% Rush (25th)
Colts Def. DVOA: 2.5% Pass (14th), -11.1% Rush (13th)
Matchups We Love:
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
It wasn't a marquee day for Ekeler, especially in the passing game where he only had three targets, but he found the end zone as a runner, which helped offset the fewer receptions. It was more of a floor game for him, so hopefully, you made it through if you had him because it should be better this week against the Colts, who just blew the biggest lead of all time against Minnesota and lost Jonathan Taylor.
Chargers WRs
Ekeler was not the only one who lacked a boom game as a receiver, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams also suffered because of Justin Herbert's poor performance. Namely, the lack of passing touchdowns. They both had at least eight targets, four receptions, and 67 yards, so it wasn't terrible, but certainly not to the standard we've come to expect. Allen will always have secure volume as the No. 1 receiver, locking him into the top 12 while Williams is more boom-bust because he's a big-play receiver, keeping him in the top 15. Joshua Palmer slotted in as the third receiver and will again be a flex option.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
It was odd to see the Chargers run the ball 24 times, the most since Week 11 against Kansas City, against a pass-funnel defense that everyone has been throwing on. Furthermore, when Herbert did air it out, he made some costly mistakes, committing two interceptions. What really hurt his output, was their only two touchdowns came on the ground. He was also pressured on 11 dropbacks, resulting in three sacks as their offensive line woes continue. The Colts are also harder to run against, which should lead to a 50-plus attempt day from Herbert, but he's a little harder to trust after last week's outing. That said, he's still in the top 10.
Gerald Everett (TE, LAC)
Everett trailed only Williams and Allen in targets with six, providing him with secure volume at the tight end position on a good passing offense. He's still a top-12 option.
Colts RBs
As referenced above, Taylor went down right near the beginning of the game, thrusting Zack Moss and Deon Jackson into a timeshare. The Colts played almost the entire game with a lead, resulting in 43 rushing attempts. The majority of the carries went to Moss, who thrived on volume more than efficiency, while Jackson was the only one to catch a pass, which happened to turn into a one-yard touchdown. The team certainly wants to run the ball and the Chargers are a great matchup for doing so, creating an opportunity for these two. Moss is likely to be the grinder while Jackson takes on the pass-catching role, making both top-36 backs.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
It was a strange game because they established a lead so quickly that they stopped throwing the ball for a while until it became close again. Pittman Jr. emerged as the clear leader in targets with 14, while the next closest was Alec Pierce with five, none of which he caught. The team has made yet another quarterback change, this time to Nick Foles. He should be able to throw the ball down the field more often and with greater success than Matt Ryan, which would mean good things for this group. Pittman remains the one to trust as a top-30 receiver, while Pierce and Campbell are flex options.
Injuries:
None
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