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John's fantasy football rookie draft busts and avoids. Which rookies should you say no to in 2025 dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts?
The much-anticipated 2025 NFL Draft is now over, and for dynasty fantasy football managers, it was a time of a mixture of happiness, sadness, and just confusion. Some players who were well-liked got great landing spots, and some were put in likely bad situations for their fantasy production.
Yet others landed on teams that present scenarios that are hard for us to decipher. For example -- former Iowa State wide receiver duo Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel both were drafted by the Houston Texans, and will now share a roster with Nico Collins, so it might be difficult to predict how those two fare. But such is the nature of the NFL.
Teams don't care about how players will do in fantasy football -- they just want to win games. It's up to us to predict how those players will do, and especially important in rookie dynasty fantasy football drafts, where choosing players can tie them to your rosters for many years to come. With all that in mind, let's dive into 2025's biggest rookie draft busts and avoids.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
- Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
- Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
- Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Kicker (K) fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Kaleb Johnson, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Most fantasy managers are in on new Pittsburgh Steelers running back Kaleb Johnson at this point. He was drafted by a team that got rid of its leading rusher from 2024, Najee Harris, and his only backfield competition is RB Jaylen Warren, who has only ever been the change-of-pace back in Pittsburgh.
In addition, Johnson will join forces with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, famed for his constant insistence on running the ball as much as possible. The Steelers are typically a run-heavy team, but Smith made them the fifth-most run-happy team in the NFL, and the second most that didn't have a hypermobile quarterback. And he likely wishes he could have run the ball more.
I acknowledge that Kaleb Johnson's stats were insane. 14 rushes for 120 yards and 2 TDs is great. But some of his reps are just horrible. 85 throws a great block. Massive real estate to the left. Johnson runs into his lineman's ass though. pic.twitter.com/RlP70u1mWG
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025
The problems for Johnson come when the blocks aren't literally perfect. Even when his linemen open up big holes for him, if it's not the one assigned hole that he is told to run through, he typically runs into his linemen's backsides. In addition, it's remarkably easy to trip up Johnson. His through-contact skill set is lacking.
Get a hand on Kaleb Johnson's foot and that's usually all you need to take him down. He seems to get tripped often with ease. pic.twitter.com/JWfellz5DN
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025
Despite his stats from last season being impressive on the surface, there are a ton of terrible (and I mean terrible) reps that I just can't get past as an evaluator. Pittsburgh isn't known for drafting good offensive players, and since the days of Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Ben Roethlisberger, it has consistently had one of the more disappointing offensive attacks in the NFL.
Johnson will join a team that still has no idea what it's doing at the QB position. Even if it lands Aaron Rodgers, he's 41 years old, and his talent has quickly faded. Regardless of that, the Steelers don't have a great offensive line, and Johnson wasn't able to succeed in 2023, when Iowa didn't have the literal best run-blocking in the P4.
What an RB does after the catch usually dictates how much volume they'll get. Kaleb sees No. 20 unblocked before he catches the ball. It looks like No. 87 expected to block his guy to the outside and have Kaleb cut in. Not sure what Kaleb is doing here. pic.twitter.com/m4kecV3uRD
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025
Johnson is oft praised for his vision, but the bad reps on his tape show that when the blocking doesn't open up a big hole in the gap he's told to run through, or even on reception plays where he has to make one guy miss after the catch, he's incapable of performing well.
My biggest problem with Kaleb is that when the offensive line doesn't open up big holes for him, he does basically NOTHING. He's praise for his vision, but he can't even try to bounce this one outside. The correct play is to follow No. 85 and try to make the 1st defender miss. pic.twitter.com/PU2bnTc8Ro
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025
He's a poor athlete who can't do much behind the line, isn't a good tackle-breaker unless he's going at full speed and "breaking" the tackle attempts of mostly already-blocked players by the offense, and doesn't appear to process what's going on in front of him well. His 2024 season was likely an anomaly. NFL teams don't produce such dominant run-blocking, especially the Steelers.
I've said for months that I'd draft RJ Harvey and Bhayshul Tuten over Johnson, and I recommend you do the same.
Quinshon Judkins, RB, Cleveland Browns
Like Johnson, Judkins likely landed in a situation where he'll get a nice amount of volume. Also like Johnson, Judkins is a player who severely lacks in certain areas of his game. In addition, he'll have to compete with fellow rookie RB Dylan Sampson, who, by my evaluations, was simply a better player.
Going over Quinshon Judkins tape, I lost track of how many times I saw zero hip flexibility. Rarely tries to juke the defender even with clear space to get extra yards. Just tries to run guys over every time. Doesn't work that well in the NFL. Should be a problem. pic.twitter.com/VJmiH2GVIA
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 17, 2025
The NFL tends to value physical traits heavily, and is willing to take a chance that highly athletic players can smooth out their flaws, or will be good enough at the few things they do well that it will compensate for their drawbacks. The problem with Judkins is that when he builds up speed, he has very little elusiveness in the open field.
He nearly always just bulled straight ahead on tape. That's a great way to shorten your career, pick up more injuries, and fail to gain extra yards when a defender is positioned in front of you. While it might be interesting to see him flatten the odd defensive back here and there, it's not a sustainable way to gain extra yards. It's better to make the guy miss.
Quinshon Judkins has a rare ability to... really not make anyone miss in the open field with lateral moves once he's built up speed. Ohio State had a lot of big run plays when the run blocking was good. But Judkins is unbelievably stiff in the open field. pic.twitter.com/xeM7Y7C5rU
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) April 29, 2025
Judkins' hips are super, super stiff in the open field. This a problem that Sampson doesn't have, and Sampson is more impressive at breaking tackles. To make matters worse, Judkins had greatly boosted production against bad college teams, and was much more disappointing against quality competition.
I'm doing some digging into RB splits vs. Power-4 and non-P4 defense.
I only included splits for RBs who had 100+ rush attempts vs. both. Here's what I found:
Crushed Power-4 competition:
🔸Cam Skattebo
🔸Damien Martinez
🔸RJ Harvey
🔸Corey Kiner (reminder that he was an LSU… pic.twitter.com/InkSTzDzie— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) April 16, 2025
This is owing to the points I stated above -- Judkins has the strength and athleticism to just run over less athletic defenders, but that just won't slide in the NFL. It doesn't work that way at the next level -- the best way to make defenders miss you is to dodge them. Judkins can't do that with any kind of speed built up. I expect that the Browns backfield will feature a lot more Sampson that people expect.
For the record, Sampson is simply the better running back. It may just hinge on how well his hamstring injury has healed.
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