RADIO
Hello, RotoBallers! Week 5 was a rather wild ride, as we saw surprising outcomes, amazing fantasy performances, and significant injuries to elite fantasy football assets.
I'll be filling in for the incomparable Adam Koffler for the next two weeks and we'll keep this weekly column very much in line with Adam's vision...we'll be looking at fantasy football players whose arrows may be pointing up and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
Week 6 Fantasy Football Risers
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
It’s been a roller coaster ride for Raheem Mostert of late. After starting the season on fire, he was (rightly) named to Koffler’s “Fallers” list last week ahead of De’Von Achane crushing yet again.
Now, with Achane expected to miss multiple weeks with a knee injury suffered against the Giants in Week 5, Mostert is likely getting the “You’re my boy. You’re my number one boy.” speech from Mike McDaniel as we speak.
The thing is, Mostert isn’t Kendall Roy. He’s actually been terrific in 2023, he’s just had the unfortunate luck of sharing a backfield with a supernova like Achane. Even in Week 5 with the rookie on the field, Mostert handled 59% of the snaps while averaging 6.5 yards per touch.
While Jeff Wilson's looming return from IR does muddy the waters just a bit, we can expect Mostert’s role to return to what we saw in the first three weeks of the season when he handled 65% of Miami’s offensive snaps and totaled 78.9 fantasy points. It shouldn’t take long for Mostert’s fantasy managers to feel the impact of Achane’s absence, as in Week 6 the Dolphins square off against a Carolina Panthers defense that’s allowed the second-most fantasy points in the NFL to the RB position this season.
More about Dolphins’ RB De'Von Achane now being expected to miss multiple weeks with a knee injury and being a candidate for injured reserve, via @Marcel_LJ:https://t.co/zCm3sNddwt
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 10, 2023
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Despite averaging just 14.6 fantasy points per game across the first three weeks of the season, Fields now stands as the overall fantasy QB3. The third-year Bears signal caller exploded for 28.9 fantasy points against the Broncos in Week 4 and followed that with a massive 33-point outing against Washington on Thursday Night Football in Week 5. These are the types of performances that win matchups – and leagues – for fantasy managers.
Fields has now thrown for eight TDs over Chicago’s last two and his 11 TD passes through the Bears’ first five games are just six short of his total for the entire 2022 season. That development as a passer adds an entirely new dimension to his fantasy upside.
Justin Fields' stats in his last 2 games...
• 43 for 64 (67.2%)
• 617 passing yards
• 82 rushing yards
• 8 TDs - 1 INT
• 131.3 passer rating#Bears pic.twitter.com/6xPiPk9B3Y— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) October 10, 2023
While Fields has yet to find as much success as a rusher to this point as he did in ‘22, his 191 rushing yards on the year still ranks fourth in the NFL among QBs. Encouragingly, we saw the Chicago staff call multiple designed runs for him in Week 5, which led to 57 rushing yards on 11 carries against Washington.
With a Minnesota Vikings squad that’s relinquished the league’s ninth-most fantasy points to the QB position on tap in Week 6, Fields should continue to pay huge dividends for the fantasy managers that stuck with him after his horrible start to the season.
D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears
Speaking of Justin Fields, his top wideout, D.J. Moore, went absolutely nuclear in Week 5. Moore broke the slate by going for a ridiculous 230 yards and three TDs on eight catches against the Commanders.
While no one could have predicted the 45-point gem Moore put up in Week 5, there had been signs that Chicago’s offseason trade acquisition was trending in the right direction, as the former Carolina Panther had quietly gone over 100 receiving yards in two of three games leading up to his Week 5 explosion.
Moore now stands as the overall fantasy WR3 in Half-PPR scoring. He leads the NFL in TDs (five) and ranks third in YAC (229), while his chunky 14.1 aDOT is the third-best mark in the league among wide receivers with at least 20 targets. The party should continue for Moore’s fantasy managers in Week 6 thanks to a juicy matchup against a Vikings secondary that ranks dead last in the NFL in receptions and yards allowed to the WR position.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
With Justin Jefferson headed to Injured Reserve with a hamstring injury, it’s wheels up time for Jordan Addison. The rookie has been rock solid even with Jefferson on the field and currently stands as the overall WR28 in Half-PPR formats.
Things will get even better for Addison and his fantasy managers in Jefferson’s absence, as we can expect the rookie to soak up a big portion of the 10.6 targets per game that the Minnesota superstar will be vacating.
Talk about a Tuesday morning news bomb
Jordan Addison just became a top-20 wide receiver for at least the next four games https://t.co/jGoAoLezoI
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) October 10, 2023
Already a polished route runner who can gain separation, Addison has amassed 249 receiving yards and three TDs while playing in Jefferson’s shadow. He’ll now inherit the top spot for a Minnesota offense that’s throwing the football at the highest clip in the league and leads the NFL with 40.8 pass attempts per game. Addison and the Vikes will begin life without Jefferson with a Charmin-soft matchup against the Chicago Bears in Week 6.
Breece Hall, New York Jets
Fantasy managers who have been patiently – or perhaps impatiently – waiting for the Breece Hall breakout game were rewarded in Week 5, as the dynamic second-year back was finally unleashed. Free of any workload restrictions for the first time this season, Hall smashed the Broncos for 177 yards and a score on 22 carries, while also logging 17 receiving yards on three catches.
BREECE HALL IS BACK 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/SKEUaXR3X5
— PFF (@PFF) October 8, 2023
As he’s worked his way back from an Achilles tear that ended his 2022 season, the Jets have gradually ramped up Hall’s workload as the season has progressed. After garnering just 39% of New York’s RB opportunities in Week 1, Hall dominated Gang Green’s backfield usage with a 71% share in Week 5 against Denver. His ridiculous 7.2 yards per carry this season trails only De’Von Achane among running backs with at least 35 attempts.
While Hall’s fantasy managers will need to sit tight over the next two weeks due to a tough matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6 and New York’s bye in Week 7, the road ahead is paved with gold, as Hall has legitimate smash potential against the Giants, Chargers, and Raiders in Weeks 8-10.
Other Risers: Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow, Travis Etienne Jr., Jaleel McLaughlin, Adam Thielen, Marquise Brown, Logan Thomas
Week 6 Fantasy Football Fallers
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
It feels weird to say that a Bill Belichick-coached team is a legit dumpster fire, but here we are, as the Patriots are fresh off a 34-0 Week 5 drubbing in Foxboro at the hands of the New Orleans Saints. Despite hiring an actual offensive coordinator this season, this New England unit has somehow gotten worse in 2023 and currently ranks dead last in the NFL in scoring average at a meager 11.0 points per game.
Lowest % of carries to gain at least two yards after contact this season:
Dalvin Cook (53%)
Cam Akers (52%)
Rhamondre Stevenson (50%)Not great! Popping up on the injury report with a thigh issue, but yeah: Ineffective, good not great usage, horrible offense. Sad!
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 5, 2023
The offensive dysfunction has cratered the fantasy value of 2022 standout Rhamondre Stevenson. After finishing last season as the overall fantasy RB11, Stevenson hasn’t looked like the same player through the first five games of 2023. His abysmal 2.8 yards per carry is dead last in the NFL among regular starting running backs, which has contributed to his anemic average of just 7.9 fantasy points per game.
As if Stevenson’s fantasy managers didn’t already have enough to worry about with the overall stench of the New England offense and his own ineffectiveness, the ghost of Ezekiel Elliott has continued to cut into Stevenson’s workload as the season has progressed. After earning a 40% snap share in Week 4, Zeke logged a new season-high 45% snap share in the squad’s Week 5 blowout loss.
With a current trade value of nearly nothing, Stevenson managers have little choice but to “hold and hope” that the 2022 version of the Patriots back shows up at some point this season.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
I mean, I guess you could make the argument that there's nowhere for Terry McLaurin to go but up after he logged yet another underwhelming fantasy performance in Week 5. The Commanders' alpha receiver has now crossed double-digit fantasy points (Half-PPR) on just two occasions this season and currently ranks as the overall fantasy WR38.
Optimistic fantasy managers hoped that the hiring of former Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, along with the insertion of Sam Howell under center, would be an upgrade for the talented McLaurin, who has spent his entire career in uninspired offensive schemes with a revolving door of stiffs throwing him the football. Unfortunately, Howell has been content to spread the ball around in Bieniemy's system, which has led to McLaurin seeing more than six targets in just one game this season, as well as a rather pedestrian 17.3% team target share on the year.
The Ohio State product has historically been forced to rely on his talent and uber-efficiency for fantasy production, and with just one game of over 55 receiving yards on his game log through Washington's first five, it looks as though that will continue to be the case in 2023.
Sam Howell has thrown 191 passes after five games
Jahan Dotson (30 targets) and Terry McLaurin (31) have only combined to see 31.4% of the targets
These two should be dominating looks
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) October 6, 2023
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
All good things must come to an end, and in the case of NFL running backs, that end can be shockingly abrupt. That’s not meant to sound like an obituary to Derek Henry’s illustrious career, as I believe “The King '' will still have some spike performances this season…but it feels like the end is a lot closer than it was just a year ago.
The 29-year-old Henry’s fantasy managers have undoubtedly felt the impact of rookie Tyjae Spears’ presence in the Tennessee backfield this year. Spears has noticeably cut into Henry’s workload to this point and garnered a 50.7% snap share this season. As Adam Levitan points out, it was nearly a dead heat in usage between the legend and the rookie in a close Week 5 divisional game against the Colts in which Henry played 37 snaps to Spears 32 and garnered 16 total opportunities to the rookie’s 12.
#Titans RBs yesterday in a game that was very close throughout:
Snaps: Derrick Henry 37, Tyjae Spears 32
Routes: Spears 20, Henry 14
Opportunities: Henry 16, Spears 12— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 9, 2023
Whether this is a conscious effort by the Tennessee coaching staff to keep the aging Henry healthy for the entire season or an attempt to get the dynamic Spears more touches, Henry’s fantasy managers have to be feeling the heat, as he’s trudged along for only 3.8 yards per carry and currently stands as the overall fantasy RB15 through the first five weeks of the season.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
The rookie’s fantasy managers were likely already frustrated with Gibbs’ usage in the Lions offense across the first month of the season, as the first-round draft pick has been deployed on just 38% of Detroit’s offensive snaps when he and David Montgomery have both been active.
Why is David Montgomery working way ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs even though the rookie is playing well? Here's what @austinekeler had to say after watching their film. pic.twitter.com/l5bnWH72S9
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 4, 2023
That existing gap between the two has certainly widened over the last two weeks thanks to the combination of Montgomery’s stellar play and Gibbs’ Week 5 absence with a hamstring injury.
When the rookie does return to action, we can expect him to continue to outpace Montgomery in the passing game, though the veteran free-agent acquisition currently possesses a stranglehold on this Lions backfield. Gibbs will maintain some FLEX value, but that’s a far cry from what fantasy managers envisioned for the explosive Alabama product.
Other Fallers: Dak Prescott, Alexander Mattison, Najee Harris, Chris Olave, Courtland Sutton, Tyler Higbee
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