Fantasy Basketball Buy, Sell, Hold: Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry

January 9, 2023

Aaron Phung looks at Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry to determine if they are buy, sell or hold candidates going forward in fantasy basketball.

Trading in fantasy basketball can help you improve your team in the short, as well as in the long term. More than that, it's just plain fun. Negotiating with your mate, going back and forth with offers, and hopefully, reaching a mutually beneficial agreement in the end.

It's not always easy to find the right deal that both parties could agree upon, so using the current form to your advantage could be helpful for you to get a deal done, and perhaps even get the most out of it.

Here are our current Sell High and Buy Low candidates for the NBA season, right here at RotoBaller.

Tyler Herro

The big question for Tyler Herro going into this season was whether he could make the leap from a solid starter to an All-Star caliber player. Last year, he averaged an impressive 20.7 PTS, so he was already a major contributor to the Heat offense. The franchise appears to have faith in the fourth-year sharpshooter, as they signed him to a four-year/ $130 million contract just before the start of the season. Whether Herro would level up his game, however, was solely up to him. 

After a bit of a slow start to the season, Herro has been on a tear as of late. Over his past nine games, he has been averaging 25.7 PTS on 46 FG%. Compared to his season average of 21.4 PTS, Herro’s recent production is a big improvement.

This stretch of games may simply appear to be a hot streak, but that is not the case. Rather, his incredible scoring is due to an uptick in usage. Herro’s field goal percentage has remained similar to his career average of 44.2 FG%. On the other hand, his FGA has increased to 19.1, a significant increase from his season average of 16.9. Another thing to note is that Jimmy Butler has played in five of the past nine games, meaning that Herro’s usage does not drop when the Heat’s All-Star is on the floor. 

So what does this mean for Herro for the rest of the season? As long as he continues to see increased usage, Herro’s stellar play should be maintainable over the long run. Fantasy managers would benefit most by holding onto him.

Baller Move: Hold

Kyle Lowry

Kyle Lowry’s longevity is a rare phenomenon in the NBA; the 2022-2023 season is his 17th. While most players don’t even make it to this point in their careers, Lowry is still thriving as a crucial part of the Miami Heat’s rotation. This year, he is averaging 13.3 PTS, 5.7 AST, 4.4 REB, and 1.1 STL, making him a rare fantasy asset that can contribute to all stat categories. 

Unfortunately, Lowry has been struggling as of late. Over the past five games, he’s only been averaging 7.0 PTS, 2.4 REB, and 3.6 AST, major drops in all stats from his season averages. The reason for this is unclear, as his usage and minutes per game have remained constant. 

His decreased production is not his only problem, though. After playing in all of the first 25 games of this season, he has missed five of the past 15 games. Injuries are not a new concern for Lowry. He has not played more than 63 games in each of the last three seasons. Considering his age, his missed games are used for rest and load management. Fantasy managers should expect this pattern to continue. 

So while Lowry’s history of missed games may be concerning, he is still a perfect buy-low candidate. He has not had a worse stretch of games this season, and because of the multiple games he has missed recently, Lowry owners must be frustrated. Take advantage and trade a lower-caliber player for him. In some time, he will see a rise in his production back to his season averages. And if owners are worried about his injury risk and load management, wait for Lowry to have a solid stretch of games to sell high for a more reliable player.

Baller Move: Hold/ Buy Low