Expert NBA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel (3/9/24)

It's time for another glorious Saturday slate in the NBA. We have been gifted with a solid six-game slate tonight, highlighted by a great DFS matchup (Mavericks-Pistons) and what should be an exciting real-life matchup (Celtics-Suns). We also have Victor Wembanyama out again, which means Zach Collins and everyone else on the Spurs are in play. Jokic and the Nuggets have a prime matchup against the Jazz, while injury news from the Trail Blazers has the potential to flip this slate on its head.

We're watching out for questionable tags on Luka Doncic, Devin Booker, Jaylen Brown, Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton, Keyonte George, Scoot Henderson, Tre Mann, Walker Kessler, Jabari Walker, and Lonnie Walker IV.

The key to succeeding in NBA DFS is making adjustments during the day as injury information becomes available. But it's always important to have a game plan, with the best players and spots circled before making those adjustments. To keep up with all the latest developments and get access to updated projections, grab an NBA season pass and access our RotoBaller Premium Discord, where @chiefjustice6 is talking about the slate until lineups lock!

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This article will provide my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 3/9/24. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our awesome NBA injuries report tool, as the slate can completely change before lineups lock at 7:00 PM EST on FanDuel and DraftKings.

I start my process with a "K-Grade" model shown below, which I've been fine-tuning for about three years. This model takes real metrics like the implied total, fantasy points per game allowed, defensive ratings, offensive ratings, and projected pace and applies them to a model with weights. It should be used as a directional guide for the slate, and I've had plenty of success with it, but stick to your process and DFS best practices. For example, a player on a team with a "D" K-Grade could easily be the top value on the slate due to a significant uptick in minutes and usage rate.

Today's NBA DFS K-Grades

Today's NBA DFS Core Plays

Let's first look at our premium projections to see who we want to target for our top spend-ups tonight.

Luka Doncic is questionable, but he's a core target if he suits up as he gets the exploitable Pistons' defense in what should be a competitive enough game in Detroit. Nikola Jokic reminded everyone of his incredible upside with his 72 DK point performance against the Celtics last time out, and tonight, he gets a reeling Jazz frontcourt that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game over their last 15 games. Jayson Tatum can be mixed in as he'll play in a solid game environment, but he's in rough form as he hasn't scored 50 DK points in four straight games.

Kyrie Irving, Anfernee Simons, and Immanuel Quickley are all players I'll be mixing in at their pricing, but I have my eyes on three different PGs as core pieces for tonight. Cade Cunningham is underpriced for his role, and he's coming off a 57.75 DK points performance against the Nets. The Mavericks have allowed the most fantasy points per game to PGs over their last seven games, and their game tonight projects as the best game environment on the slate. Jamal Murray is also interesting here as the Jazz allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to PGs this season, and he has been starting to find a groove as the playoffs grow closer.

Lastly, I'll get to all the Devin Vassell I can handle. Victor Wembanyama will be out for the second straight game, and Vassell predictably led the charge in his absence with a 56.75 DK point output. This isn't a great matchup from a positional standpoint, but he holds a team-leading 25% usage rate and averages 1.21 FPTS/min with the Rookie of the Year favorite off the floor this season. Basically, everyone from the Spurs is in play, but Vassell is my spend-up target.

Top Core Plays:

1. Luka Doncic, DAL vs. DET - PG ($12,200 DK; $12,700 FD)
2. Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. UTA - C ($11,500 DK; $1200 FD)
3. Cade Cunningham, DET vs. DAL - PG ($8,000 DK; $8,300 FD)
4. Devin Vassell, SAS vs. GSW - PG/SG ($7,700 DK; $8,000 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Value Plays

Using the same premium NBA projections, let's sort them by fantasy points per dollar to see what players are popping as the best values tonight.

As far as value goes tonight, it's Zach Collins and then everyone else. As mentioned, Wemby's being out opens up heavy usage and production for the entire Spurs team. Vassell will likely take over as the team leader in usage rate, but Collins holds a solid 21% usage rate and averages 1.1 FPTS/min without his frontcourt partner on the floor this season. He played 30 minutes and scored 37.25 DK points against the Kings without the big man last game, and he could be in for an even bigger game against the Warriors tonight. Golden State allows the 10th-most fantasy points per game to Cs this season, so Collins is locked in as a priority.

Daniel Gafford is among the most frustrating players in the NBA to roster in DFS, because his minutes and production have been extremely volatile all season. He had been coming off the bench after getting traded to the Mavericks at the deadline, but his recent shift to the starting lineup has sparked games of 41 and 24.75 DK points. He's still only playing just over 20 minutes per game, though, so we don't need to go too crazy here despite the favorable matchup against Detroit.

Tre Jones and Jaden Ivey are also value targets in the mid-range. Jones gets the "no Wemby" boost, and Ivey gets the amazing positional matchup and game environment. Jalen Duren is the player I'll highlight here, though, thanks to his upside in a matchup against a Mavericks team that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to Cs over their last 15 games. We haven't seen a truly dominant game from Duren in a while, but he put up 62 DK points against Portland in early February.

Note: We're waiting for a lot of news to break, but keep an eye on what Portland does. Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton, Scoot Henderson, and Jabari Walker are all questionable. Depending on who sits, we could see another start out of underpriced players such as Delano Banton, Toumani Camara, and Duop Reath.

Top Value Plays:

1. Zach Collins, SAS vs. GSW - C ($5,800 DK; $6,800 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
2. Jalen Duren, DET vs. DAL - C ($6,600 DK; $7,600 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
3. Tre Jones, SAS vs. GSW -  ($5,300 DK; $5,500 FD)
4. Dalano Banton, POR vs. TOR - SG ($4,600 DK; $5,200 FD)
5. FanDuel Targets: Brice Sensabaugh, Luka Samanic, Duop Reath, Davis Bertans

 

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Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Point Guard

We have a group of players I'll be mixing in heavily at PG tonight, so we'll have to prioritize the best plays and go from there. Doncic, Cunningham, and Vassell are my favorite plays here; my reasoning can be found in the above sections. Murray is live for a huge game in an exploitable matchup against the Jazz, but he and Quickley are priced right in the same range as Cunningham and Vassell. Tre Jones, Derrick White, Jaden Ivey, and Anfernee Simons are all players I like here, but we can only get to four players from this crew on DraftKings (PG, SG, G, UTIL).

Top PG Options:

1. Luka Doncic @ DET ($12,200 DK; $12,700 FD)
2. Cade Cunningham vs. DAL ($8,000 DK; $8,300 FD)
3. Devin Vassell @ GSW ($7,700 DK; $8,000 FD)
4. Jamal Murray vs. UTA ($7,800 DK; $8,300 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Shooting Guard

We can get to Vassell, Ivey, and Simons at SG on DraftKings. Vassell is a top target of mine tonight, but there are other SG options to consider as well. Jaylen Brown is questionable to play, but I'm not fading him when he's coming off a 70 DK point night against the Nuggets in his last game. Derrick White also looks good at his price, as both Boston guards are in play against a Suns defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to SGs over their last seven games.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is an underpriced starter on a great team with a great matchup, so I don't have any problem getting to him tonight despite his unappealing ceiling. Brandon Miller is the final player I'm considering for the position. The rookie hasn't been putting up the monster games we saw flashes of this year, but a matchup against the floundering Nets might be just what the doctor ordered.

Top SG Options:

1. Devin Vassell @ GSW ($7,700 DK; $8,000 FD)
2. Jaden Ivey vs. DAL ($5,700 DK; $6,400 FD)
3. Jaylen Brown @ PHX ($7,500 DK; $8,400 FD)
4. Brandon Miller vs. BKN ($6,900 DK; $7,100 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Small Forward

This position is usually tough to analyze, but clear targets are available. Jeremy Sochan and Keldon Johnson are getting the usage and production bump with Wemby out tonight, and they're both underpriced for their roles without him. Jayson Tatum hasn't been in good form recently and is too expensive for my preferred lineup builds (Jokic/Doncic + Vassell), but he's always someone you can take shots on. Michael Porter Jr. is intriguing but not for the faint of heart. He's coming off a brutal 13.5 DK point game on Thursday, as he ran into foul trouble and never got it going against Boston. The Jazz are a different story - he's bouncing back in this spot.

Top SF Options:

1. Jeremy Sochan vs. GSW ($5,400 DK; $6,100 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
2. Keldon Johnson vs. GSW ($5,500 DK; $6,000 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
3. Michael Porter Jr. vs. UTA ($6,500 DK; $6,700 FD)
4. Brandon Miller vs. BKN ($6,900 DK; $7,100 FD)

Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Power Forward

We can also get to Sochan, Johnson, and MPJ at PF, but there's a group of intriguing options outside that trio. Aaron Gordon looks fine against a weak Utah frontcourt, but I don't love his ceiling, and I'll likely get lower than the field on him. Isaiah Stewart is a fun dart throw because he's playing 30+ minutes per night, and the Mavericks can't guard bigs. However, the production hasn't been there, and I'd rather pay up for Duren in the same spot. Kristaps Porzingis and Jonathan Kuminga are two more options in the mid-to-high range tonight. Porzingis is my priority due to his high ceiling and potential to explode if Jaylen Brown sits out.

Top PF Options:

1. Jeremy Sochan vs. GSW ($5,400 DK; $6,100 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
2. Keldon Johnson vs. GSW ($5,500 DK; $6,000 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
3. Michael Porter Jr. vs. UTA ($6,500 DK; $6,700 FD)
4. Kristaps Porzingis @ PHX ($7,600 DK) DraftKings Only

Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Center

It's Jokic and Collins all day and night here. Jokic is in a prime matchup against a Jazz frontcourt that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to Cs over their last 30 games, and the two-time MVP just put up a 72-burger against the stingy Celtics defense. Don't overthink this. Collins has been covered as the top value play on the slate with Wemby out, so we'll pivot to some more options at the position.

Daniel Gafford can be utilized as a cheap value option, but I don't love making him a core piece, as his minutes and production are as volatile as it gets. Duop Reath has been a steady contributor when given minutes, so he's firmly in play and will look even better if Jerami Grant is ruled out. Lastly, I like taking shots on the upside found in Jalen Duren in a matchup he can exploit against the Mavericks.

1. Nikola Jokic vs. UTA ($11,500 DK; $12,000 FD)
2. Zach Collins @ GSW ($5,800 DK; $6,800 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
3. Duop Reath vs. TOR ($5,500 DK; $5,900 FD)
4. Jalen Duren  ($6,600 DK) DraftKings Only

Today's Top NBA DFS Game Stacks

1. Dallas @ Detroit (234.5 total)
2. Spurs
3. Blazers (depending on the number of players sitting)

 

Today's Top NBA DFS Avoids

1. Tatum profiles as a great play tonight, but I'm in a "wait and see" mode with him until further notice. He hasn't cracked 50 DK points in four consecutive games, and it's not like this matchup is incredible against the Suns. Phoenix is allowing the sixth-least fantasy points per game to SFs this season.
2. I'll be shying away from Daniel Gafford if his ownership gets out of control, which I suspect it will. The big man is starting for the Mavericks now, but he's still only playing 21 minutes per game, which will cap his upside. There are 5-6 centers I would rather get to tonight, depending on how the news breaks.
3. The Suns, if Devin Booker is back in the lineup. Booker is tracking to make his return tonight, which means he, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal all look worse at inflated salaries. One of them may pop off for a big game, but there's no way to tell who that's going to be, and that's not a gamble I'm willing to take on a slate with Jokic and Doncic.

 

My Favorite NBA DFS Lineup Picks for Today

Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.

• My favorite overall play: Nikola Jokic
• My favorite CASH play: Zach Collins
• My favorite GPP play(s): Devin Vassell, Jamal Murray, Jalen Duren
• My favorite value play(s): Zach Collins, Dalano Banton, Duop Reath

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