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Welcome to another Saturday in the NBA, RotoBallers. We're approaching the end of the regular season, so we don't have too many quirky Saturday slates left. It also means we've wholly entered "Silly Season" in the league, a time when players like Javon Freeman-Liberty and James Wiseman are the difference-makers in lineups. It's a time when we must be ready for anything, including teams deciding to rest critical rotational players minutes before their game tips off.
Tonight's slate doesn't include any true standout matchups for a fantasy game environment perspective. However, we have two truly awful teams squaring off in a game with the highest implied total and fastest projected pace, so we'll get to pieces from the Raptors-Wizards affair. The Suns-Spurs showdown is also tantalizing, with rookie sensation Victor Wembanyama becoming must-watch TV and veterans Devin Booker and Kevin Durant on the other side. The Utah-Houston and Charlotte-Atlanta matchups will also be heavily mixed in tonight, as each team has injured stars opening up value across their rosters.
The key to succeeding in NBA DFS is making adjustments during the day as injury information becomes available. But it's always important to have a game plan, with the best players and spots circled before making those adjustments. To keep up with all the latest developments and get access to updated projections, grab an NBA season pass and access our RotoBaller Premium Discord, where @chiefjustice6 is talking about the slate until lineups lock!
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I start my process with a "K-Grade" model shown below, which I've been fine-tuning for about three years. This model takes real metrics like the implied total, fantasy points per game allowed, defensive ratings, offensive ratings, and projected pace and applies them to a model with weights. It should be used as a directional guide for the slate, and I've had plenty of success with it, but stick to your process and DFS best practices. For example, a player on a team with a "D" K-Grade could easily be the top value on the slate due to a significant uptick in minutes and usage rate.
Today's NBA DFS K-Grades
Today's NBA DFS Core Plays
Let's first look at our premium projections to see who we want to target for our top spend-ups tonight.
I'm closely aligned with the lineup optimizer's recommendations regarding the top high-salaried players to get exposure to. Dejounte Murray is in great form and playing a leaky Hornets' defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to PGs over their last seven games. Devin Booker hasn't exceeded 60 DK points since he put up 60 real-life points and finished with 81.25 DK points on 1/26 against the Pacers. However, he's fairly priced and in a matchup against the bottom-of-the-barrel Spurs defense tonight, and we only really need 44.5 DK points for him to hit 5x value in this spot.
Two guards from Houston - Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet - also stand out in this top-tier salary range. They both carry heavy usage and have seen the anticipated production bumps with star big man Alperen Sengun out of the lineup. They're playing Utah, a team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to PGs and the fifth-most to SGs this season. They've also allowed the second-most fantasy points per game, trailing only the putrid Wizards.
Top Core Plays:
- Dejounte Murray, ATL vs. CHA - PG ($9,700 DK; $9,900 FD)
- Devin Booker, PHX vs. SAS - PG/SG ($8,900 DK; $9,300 FD)
- Jalen Green, HOU vs. UTA - PG/SG ($8,500 DK; $8,300 FD)
- Fred VanVleet, HOU vs. UTA - PG ($8,100 DK; $8,100 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Value Plays
Using the same premium NBA projections, let's sort them by fantasy points per dollar to see what players are popping as the best values tonight.
The value board doesn't look too bad right now, but we will want more value to open up to unlock multiple stars in one lineup. Bruno Fernando is the top value in the optimizer, but I don't love getting heavy exposure to a player projecting for just 20 minutes. Charlotte is awful at defending bigs, and Fernando is cheap, so he's an option in play. Dillon Brooks is maddening due to his volatility, but he's getting enough minutes to be viable in an elite matchup against the Jazz.
Javon Freeman-Liberty profiles as a player we want to get to as long as he's back in the starting lineup. He hasn't done much to be inspired by when given opportunities, but his playing nearly 30 minutes against the worst defense in the league is intriguing. Jontay Porter is another Raptors player I'll be getting to in tournaments. He won't play as much as some other value options on this slate, but he has game logs of 27.75, 20.75, 20.5, and 37.5 DK points in his last five games. He also gets the Wizards tonight, which, again, is a positive.
Top Value Plays:
- Javon Freeman-Liberty, TOR vs. WSH - PG/SG ($3,800 DK; $3,800 FD)
- Dillon Brooks, HOU vs. UTA - ($4,500 DK) DraftKings Only
- Bruno Fernando, ATL vs. CHA - C ($3,900 DK; $4,200 FD)
- Jontay Porter, TOR vs. WSH - ($4,600 DK; $5,000 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
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Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Point Guard
Jalen Green is my favorite points-per-dollar play on the entire slate. He's now the clear leader on the team with a 28.2% usage rate, and he's averaging 1.33 FPTs/min with the projected lineup on the floor tonight. The Jazz allow oodles of fantasy points to opposing teams and PGs specifically, so I'm getting to all the Green I can handle. Fred VanVleet is a fine, if way less exciting, guard to consider in the same matchup. Amen Thompson can also be mixed in, but he's much more appealing at the less-loaded SF position tonight.
Freeman-Liberty was discussed in the Value Plays section, so I'll focus on the highest-priced player I want to get to on this slate. Dejounte Murray is on a heater without backcourt mate Trae Young, scoring at least 50 DK points in four of his last seven games and at least 60 DK points three times during that stretch. The Hornets have struggled against PGs lately, so I will keep riding with Murray as he auditions for his next team.
Top PG Options:
- Jalen Green vs. UTA ($8,500 DK; $8,300 FD)
- Dejounte Murray vs. CHA ($9,700 DK; $9,900 FD)
- Javon Freeman-Liberty vs. WSH ($3,800 DK; $3,800 FD)
- Vasilije Micic vs. ATL ($5,400 DK; $5,800 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Shooting Guard
Green and Liberty Bibberty have already been covered, but there are other options at the SG position. I'm also prioritizing Devin Booker, as he's fairly priced and playing the Spurs on the road. I don't love targeting the Suns, as it's impossible to nail down who will pop for a big game when they have such a loaded lineup. However, this is a unique matchup, and I'm making an exception. Booker is way overdue for a monster game, and this environment is prime for him to do so, as the Spurs play at the third-fastest pace and allow the second-most fantasy points per game to SGs this season.
Bogdan Bogdanovic also gets a mention here. He's now Atlanta's second option, and while he has been underwhelming in three straight games, this is the matchup for him to get back on track. Collin Sexton and Jordan Poole are also intriguing, but I'll focus on Green, Freeman-Liberty, Booker, and Bogdanovic.
Top SG Options:
- Jalen Green vs. UTA ($8,500 DK; $8,300 FD)
- Javon Freeman-Liberty vs. WSH ($3,800 DK; $3,800 FD)
- Devin Booker vs. SAS ($8,900 DK; $9,300 FD)
- Bogdan Bogdanovic vs. CHA ($6,600 DK; $6,400 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Small Forward
Bogdanovic is my favorite play at the SF position, but there are a few others to touch on here. Deni Avdija is now at a "sticker shock" salary on both sites, but his high price is deserved as he has been putting up 35-45 DK point games for about a month. Poole being ruled out would only boost Avdija's prospects against a Raptors defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to SFs this season.
Amen Thompson, De'Andre Hunter, and Bruce Brown are similar plays in that they're mid-range options that look better due to their favorable matchups. Of the three, I prefer Thompson due to his higher potential ceiling and exploitable matchup against the Jazz.
Top SF Options:
- Bogdan Bogdanovic vs. CHA ($6,600 DK; $6,400 FD)
- Deni Avdija vs. TOR ($7,100 DK; $7,500 FD)
- Amen Thompson vs. UTA ($6,600 DK) DraftKings Only
- De'Andre Hunter vs. CHA ($6,000 DK; $5,700 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Power Forward
Uncomfortable options like Bruno Fernando and Dillon Brooks are at the top of the value board for the PF position. Fernando will resume his role as a backup center to Clint Capela with Onyeka Okongwu out, and he's a decent enough option at a cheap price point. I worry about the upside, though, as it's extremely unlikely he sees more than 22 minutes in a competitive game. He's inexpensive enough for us to take shots on in this incredible matchup.
Dillon Brooks is a maddening player to target. He can give you 2.25 DK points over 23 minutes (3.19) or 32.5 DK points in 25 minutes (3/21). He's as volatile as it gets, but we have to embrace volatility in daily fantasy sports. The price point and matchup pique my interest, though, and he's another value player I'll be crossing my fingers with tonight. Brice Sensabaugh is another cheap option I'll be mixing in, as he will get a full complement of minutes with Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson already ruled out.
Top PF Options:
- Bruno Fernando vs. CHA ($3,900 DK; $4,200 FD)
- Dillon Brooks vs. UTA ($4,500 DK) DraftKings Only
- Brice Sensabaugh vs. HOU ($4,300 DK; $4,300 FD)
- De'Andre Hunter vs. CHA ($6,000 DK; $5,700 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Center
Jontay Porter is a GPP flier I'll be riding with tonight. He's the new Chris Boucher - a Raptors' big who is great from a FPTS/min perspective but finds himself struggling to play anywhere close to starter-level minutes. As stated in the Value Plays section, he has crushed value several times recently despite playing limited minutes. This game should stay competitive throughout as it only holds a six-point spread, so Porter should be able to thrive against a Washington frontcourt that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to Cs this season.
Clint Capela, Wendell Carter Jr., and Kelly Olynyk are also in play at the center position tonight. Still, I'll focus primarily on Fernando and Porter unless we get additional news.
- Bruno Fernando vs. CHA ($3,900 DK; $4,200 FD)
- Jontay Porter vs. WSH ($4,600 DK; $5,000 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
- Clint Capela vs. CHA ($6,400 DK; $6,800 FD)
Today's Top NBA DFS Game Environments
- Toronto vs. Washington (232.5 total)
- Utah vs. Houston (228.5 total)
- Phoenix vs. San Antonio (230 total)
Today's Top NBA DFS Avoids
- I'll get to a few shares due to his unparalleled upside, but Wembanyama isn't fitting my lineup builds tonight. The sites have finally realized how dominant he is in daily fantasy, and they've made him the highest (FanDuel) and second-highest (DraftKings) priced player. He's also facing the Suns, who allow the fifth-least fantasy points per game to Cs this season.
- Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis is priced way up due to his incredible play for most of March, but outputs of 39 and 43 DK points over his last four games give some pause for concern. He's also facing the Magic, who play at the fifth-slowest pace in the NBA and allow the fourth-least fantasy points per game to Cs this season.
- Everyone on Orlando aside from WCJ. Wendell Carter Jr. is a fine play at his mid-range pricing, but the rest of the team is either too expensive or not in good enough form for me to be interested.
My Favorite NBA DFS Lineup Picks for Today
Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.
- My favorite overall play: Jalen Green
- My favorite CASH play: Dejounte Murray
- My favorite GPP play(s): Deni Avdija, Devin Booker, Brice Sensabaugh
- My favorite value play(s): Javon Freeman-Liberty, Jontay Porter, Brice Sensabaugh
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