RADIO
Saint Patrick's Day is just around the corner, and it's only natural to feel a little lucky on this holiday, right? Let's find the end of the rainbow and snag that pot of gold in NBA DFS tonight, RotoBallers. We have an interesting six-game slate on tap in the association, with injury news already opening up value in the Wizards-Bulls matchup as Coby White, Tyus Jones, and potentially more players will be sitting out in Chicago.
The Warriors-Lakers showdown rates out as the top matchup to target in my K-Grade model (shown below), so we'll also want to pay attention to that. Stephen Curry will return to the lineup against LeBron James and Anthony Davis in a game with play-in tournament implications on the line, so there's a chance we see some extra minutes out of the stars in this spot.
The key to succeeding in NBA DFS is making adjustments during the day as injury information becomes available. But it's always important to have a game plan, with the best players and spots circled before making those adjustments. To keep up with all the latest developments and get access to updated projections, grab an NBA season pass and access our RotoBaller Premium Discord, where @chiefjustice6 is talking about the slate until lineups lock!
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I start my process with a "K-Grade" model shown below, which I've been fine-tuning for about three years. This model takes real metrics like the implied total, fantasy points per game allowed, defensive ratings, offensive ratings, and projected pace and applies them to a model with weights. It should be used as a directional guide for the slate, and I've had plenty of success with it, but stick to your process and DFS best practices. For example, a player on a team with a "D" K-Grade could easily be the top value on the slate due to a significant uptick in minutes and usage rate.
Today's NBA DFS K-Grades
Today's NBA DFS Core Plays
Let's first look at our premium projections to see who we want to target for our top spend-ups tonight.
As with every slate, the players you want to prioritize can change immediately with an injury update. For example, Anthony Davis and LeBron James profile as top-tier plays tonight, but if one (or both) are out, the other becomes one of the best plays on the slate. I'll prioritize Davis, Nikola Vucevic, Zion Williamson, Kyle Kuzma, DeMar DeRozan, Deandre Ayton, Tyrese Maxey, and Pascal Siakam out of this high-salary tier.
AD is in an elite game environment, and the Warriors struggle against bigs, so getting exposure to the player with the highest upside on the slate makes sense. Vucevic and DeRozan have put up some lineup-killing performances lately, but their matchup against the fast-paced, no-defense Wizards is a recipe for a bounceback for both of them. They're both going to be popular, though, so getting to the likes of Zion, Kuzma, Ayton, Maxey, and Siakam could be the key in GPPs. Of that crew, I like Zion, Ayton, and Maxey the best for their mix of low rostership and high upside.
Top Core Plays:
- Anthony Davis, LAL vs. GSW - C ($10,200 DK; $11,500 FD)
- DeMar DeRozan, CHI vs. WSH - SF/PF ($8,200 DK; $8,700 FD)
- Nikola Vucevic, CHI vs. WSH - C ($8,400 DK; $8,000 FD)
- Deandre Ayton, POR vs. NOP ($8,000 DK; $8,600 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
Today's NBA DFS Value Plays
Using the same premium NBA projections, let's sort them by fantasy points per dollar to see what players are popping as the best values tonight.
We already have a solid group of value options on this slate, but depending on the news, it could get much more interesting. Deni Avdija and Tyus Jones are question marks for the shorthanded Wizards, and one of them sitting out would open up significant value against a Bulls team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game over their last seven games. There are five other teams to watch for injury updates (Portland, Philadelphia, Memphis, Golden State, and Los Angeles), but let's focus on the ones we can have some confidence in right now.
Alex Caruso is a mid-range value option we can't ignore tonight. He's locked in for minutes in the mid-30s with Coby White doubtful, and he has been crushing value with 36.75 and 46.25 DK points over his last two games. The Wizards play at the fastest pace in the league, hold the worst defensive rating, and allow the most fantasy points. We want to get pieces here. Ayo Dosunmu is coming off a rough game where he shot 2-for-11 and scored 17 DK points, but he's a candidate to bounce back in the same spot.
Jordan Poole is the main mid-range piece I'll get to on the other side of this matchup. He should see heavy minutes in the best game environment, and he gets a drastic 7.8% usage bump to a team-leading 34% usage rate with Tyus Jones off the floor this season. Holmes is tracking to play and start for the Wizards tonight, making him an elite value at his ultra-cheap DraftKings salary.
Top Value Plays:
- Richaun Holmes, WSH vs. CHI - C ($4,400 DK)
- Alex Caruso, CHI vs. WSH - SG/SF ($5,800 DK; $6,100 FD)
- Jordan Poole, WSH vs. CHI - PG/SG ($6,200 DK; $6,500 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
- Ayo Dosunmu, CHI vs. WSH - PG/SG ($6,000 DK; $6,100 FD)
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Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Point Guard
I'll focus most of my exposure on Poole and Dosunmu at the PG position, but that strategy doesn't come without risk. A few high-priced PGs are on this slate, and none look more appealing than Tyrese Maxey. Maxey is still ramping up from missing a handful of games with a concussion, but he put up 30 real-life points last game, and now he is getting a date with a Charlotte team that allows the ninth-most fantasy points per game. Tobias Harris isn't tracking to play tonight, so Maxey will get all the usage he can handle.
Top PG Options:
- Jordan Poole @ CHI ($6,200 DK; $6,500 FD)
- Ayo Dosunmu vs. WSH ($6,000 DK; $6,100 FD)
- Tyrese Maxey vs. CHA ($8,500 DK; $8,700 FD)
- Anfernee Simons @ NOP ($7,900 DK; $7,700 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Shooting Guard
Caruso, Poole, Dosunmu, and Maxey also qualify at SG, and that's where I'll concentrate most of my lineup exposures for the position. However, we likely see a few more plays pop up as we get injury news throughout the day. Harris missed the shootaround for the 76ers, so we'll likely see a lot of minutes and a usage bump for everyone's favorite player, Kelly Oubre Jr. It's a prime matchup against the Hornets, so he's firmly in play if Harris misses the game.
Top SG Options:
- Alex Caruso vs. WSH ($5,800 DK; $6,100 FD)
- Jordan Poole @ CHI ($6,200 DK; $6,500 FD)
- Ayo Dosunmu vs. WSH ($6,000 DK; $6,100 FD)
- Tyrese Maxey vs. CHA ($8,500 DK; $8,700 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Small Forward
DeRozan and Caruso are the top targets at this position, and it's not particularly close. White remaining out means both will continue to soak up additional minutes and usage, which is perfect because a matchup against the Wizards is as good as it gets in the NBA. DDR just went off for 67.25 DK points against the Pacers on 3/13, and I'm expecting a similar performance from him tonight as long as the game remains somewhat competitive.
Pascal Siakam hasn't been lighting the world on fire since joining the Pacers, but there's something to be said about the consistency he brings to the table. He's not flashing the ceiling games as frequently anymore with Tyrese Haliburton running the show, but he rarely puts up a "dud" game that will kill your chances of cashing. The Nets are surprisingly great at limiting fantasy production, but I like getting to Siakam in one of the top game environments on the slate.
Top SF Options:
- DeMar DeRozan vs. WSH ($8,200 DK; $8,700 FD)
- Alex Caruso vs. WSH ($5,800 DK; $6,100 FD)
- Pascal Siakam vs. BKN ($7,500 DK; $8,200 FD)
- Kelly Oubre Jr. vs. CHA ($6,000 DK; $6,300 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Power Forward
DeRozan and Siakam qualify at PF, and Torrey Craig works fine as an uninspiring lineup filler, but there are some other options we need to pay attention to. Kyle Kuzma is the focal point of the Wizards' offense, holding a 32% usage rate with a 1.25 FPTS/min rate when playing with the projected lineup for tonight. As stated above, the Bulls have been bleeding fantasy points to opponents over their last seven games. I have no issue getting to a lot of Kuzma in this spot.
Zion Williamson has been easily scoring 45-55 DK points over his last five games, and that type of output would put him well above 5x value at his current salary. The Trail Blazers don't offer much resistance with their frontcourt defense, so Zion is firmly in play on this slate. LeBron James and Paul Reed are two additional PF options on opposite sides of the salary pool. However, I probably won't get to James if I prioritize Davis, DeRozan, and Kuzma.
Top PF Options:
- DeMar DeRozan vs. WSH ($8,200 DK; $8,700 FD)
- Kyle Kuzma @ CHI ($8,300 DK; $8,300 FD)
- Pascal Siakam vs. BKN ($7,500 DK; $8,200 FD)
- Zion Williamson vs. POR ($8,400 DK; $9,100 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Center
Center is the most loaded position tonight, but I will prioritize AD if we get additional value opening up, which is expected. He has the highest ceiling on the slate, and a monster game feels attainable against a Warriors team that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to Cs over their last 15 games. I'll likely be running a lot of double-center lineups on DraftKings tonight because I have a lot of interest in (at least) three more centers on this slate.
Nikola Vucevic is a great target in a full-game stack against the Wizards, but he's not cheap and will undoubtedly be very popular. He also hasn't been good lately, averaging just 31 DK points per game over his last three contests. I'd rather get to the less popular Deandre Ayton, whose price has shot up after a torrid four-game stretch where he's averaging 54 DK points per game. Lastly, Richaun Holmes is an incredible value option without Marvin Bagley III. He's way too cheap for his starting role, and he's in a prime matchup against a Bulls team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to Cs over their last seven games.
- Anthony Davis vs. GSW ($10,200 DK; $11,500 FD)
- Deandre Ayton @ NOP ($8,000 DK; $8,600 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
- Nikola Vucevic vs. WSH ($8,400 DK; $8,000 FD)
- Richaun Holmes @ CHI ($4,400 DK; $5,600 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
Today's Top NBA DFS Game Environments
- Washington @ Chicago (225.5 total)
- Golden State @ Los Angeles Lakers (233.5 total)
- Brooklyn @ Indiana (227.5 total)
Today's Top NBA DFS Avoids
- Desmond Bane might return to the lineup after missing two months due to a left ankle injury, but I won't get any shares of him. He's priced like he's going to jump right back into playing 37 minutes, but he's almost certainly going to be on a minutes restriction after such a long absence.
- I don't have much from the Grizzlies-Thunder showdown. The game has the third-lowest total on the slate and doesn't rate out well in my K-Grades model, but those aren't the only reasons. The Thunder are all priced appropriately, so while Luguentz Dort and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are decent enough plays, they're not my top targets. The Grizzlies could give us some value pieces if the injuries shake out right, but it's just an unappealing game overall.
- This stance could be the X-Factor for my night, but I'm not getting to any Stephen Curry on the road against the Lakers. He hasn't played since 3/7, and he's too expensive to even consider with how I'm building lineups tonight. It's a scary fade due to the Lakers' inability to defend opposing backcourts, but I'm willing to roll the dice and take a "wait-and-see" approach with Curry in his return to the court.
My Favorite NBA DFS Lineup Picks for Today
Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.
- My favorite overall play: Anthony Davis
- My favorite CASH play: DeMar DeRozan
- My favorite GPP play(s): Tyrese Maxey, Richaun Holmes, Deandre Ayton, Zion Williamson
- My favorite value play(s): Richaun Holmes, Alex Caruso
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