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Andy's fantasy baseball ESPN H2H points league tips and draft targets. He looks at draft strategies, draft sleepers, and busts for ESPN H2H points leagues.
Do you need some last-minute advice on attacking your H2H fantasy baseball points league on ESPN? You've come to the right place.
While many may think that rotisserie and points rankings are interchangeable and could be used in both settings, they are actually putting themselves at a massive disadvantage. Instead, in order to prepare for your league, you have to pay very close attention to your league’s specific scoring, as player values will greatly differ across formats.
Throughout this piece, we will look at some tips on how to attack your draft and roster construction and at some targets and fades from each position.
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Background and Strategy for ESPN Drafts
Before we begin to form a strategy, we first need to look at the scoring settings. Typical ESPN points league follows the standard scoring listed below:
Batting:
Runs Scored (R) 1, Total Bases (TB) 1, Runs Batted In (RBI) 1, Walks (BB) 1, Strikeouts (K) -1, Stolen Bases (SB) 1
Pitching:
Innings Pitched (IP) 3, Hits Allowed (H) -1 , Earned Runs (ER) -2, Holds (HD) 2, Walks Issued (BB) -1, Strikeouts 1, Wins (W) 2, Losses (L) -2, Saves (SV) 2
The first observation to note is how detrimental a swing-and-miss-prone hitter can be to your team. If a player struggles at the plate, you can see them score -3 or even -4 points in a single game. That can be the difference between winning that day (if your league scores daily matchups) or a prolonged slump that can crumble your chances of winning that week (if your league works on a weekly scoring period).
It is also important to see the impact of stolen bases, seeing as though they are only worth one point. In rotisserie leagues, stolen base threats like Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. are consensus top-five selections due to their excellent combination of hitting and elite speed. In points leagues, however, this is less valuable. Instead, it may be more beneficial to take a complete hitter with lower strikeout rates, like Juan Soto and Freddie Freeman, with your first selection.
Lastly, the final component of the scoring system that stood out to me was how valuable an “innings eater” can be. Earning three points for every inning is significant and can easily be the difference between winning or losing in a scoring period.
Pitchers like Logan Webb and Logan Gilbert, who have a pedigree for pitching at least into the sixth and seventh innings, should be pushed up your draft board.
In addition, pitchers who might be more talented from a strikeout perspective but can only go five innings a start may not be as valuable as a starter who can consistently deliver a six-inning quality start.
The one aspect that carries over from the rotisserie is roster construction. Second base is still top-heavy, with more questionable options in the mid-to-late rounds, as is the outfield.
However, in rotisserie drafts, I am more hesitant to target a pitcher in the opening three to four rounds, while in this scoring format, I see it as a necessity.
For example, last season, the top-two overall players in this format were Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell, with Ronald Acuna Jr. as the third. A Cy Young winner can very well be the highest-scoring player throughout the season, even more than the MVP.
Players to Target for ESPN Points Drafts
The following players are not considered must drafts to push up your draft board. Instead, they are strong alternatives who, due to the nature of their skill set, have a path to excel in this format.
Catcher - Keibert Ruiz, Washington Nationals
Ruiz placed in the 99th percentile in K rate among qualified hitters. In addition, the backstop hit for a robust .260 average and tallied 18 long balls. Ruiz is slotted to be the everyday catcher in Washington, making him an excellent target if you decide to wait to draft your backstop, especially thanks to his minuscule strikeout rate and strong hitting skills.
First Base - Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
The 32-year-old placed above average in both walk and K rates last season, making him a perfect fit for this format. The Diamondback also hit 33 home runs with 103 RBI. Walker finished as the fourth overall first baseman last season and should be considered a safe bet to remain in the top in 2024.
Christian Walker's 100th career home run! pic.twitter.com/3GU8lP93WU
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 1, 2023
Second Base - Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs
The Cubs' leadoff hitter showed elite on-base skills with his minuscule 12.1% K% rate and strong .283 AVG. He finished as the eighth overall second baseman in this format last season and should again be a top-10 option with his excellent bat-to-ball skills. His elite speed is a bonus (43 swiped bags).
Third Base - Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
Often mentioned as a target in a points leagues draft every season, the Astro has yet to disappoint. Bregman finished as the third overall third baseman and just 21 points behind the top option last season, Austin Riley. Bregman plays on an excellent team, putting him in an elite position to post strong counting stats daily. In addition, his high 12.7% walk rate and low 12.0% K rate remain at the top of all hitters.
Shortstop - J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners
The sixth overall shortstop saw a significant power increase last season, with his home run total going from six to 19. Crawford scored 94 runs last season with a .266 AVG and will again be slotted toward the top of the Seattle batting order in 2024. While his power jump made him a steal in drafts last season, his 14.7% walk rate makes him a good selection in this format if you choose to wait to fill your shortstop position.
Outfield - Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs
Do you see a theme here? The Gold Glove left fielder is yet another player on this list with a very high walk rate and moderate-to-low strikeout rate. Happ should also be a safe bet to hit 20 long balls, as he hit or came close to this total over the past few seasons.
Ian Happ having an ⭐️All-Star⭐️ night all-around, now with a single, double, and triple in just the 6th inning. #CycleWatch@Cubs #GoCubsGo https://t.co/TmOBbWg7r8 pic.twitter.com/AZdTRMohDl
— Billy Krumb (@ClubhouseCancer) June 16, 2023
Outfield - Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
Steven Kwan had an eye-popping rookie season in 2022, hitting .298 with a .373 OBP. He had a down year in 2023, seeing his average and OBP drop to .268 and .340, respectively. However, he maintained a near-perfect 10.4% K% rate and posted the best 11.1% whiff rate among hitters, suggesting he could return to 2022 status this season.
Starting Pitcher - Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays
Bassitt, who usually pitches into the sixth and seventh innings of his starts, is a perfect fit for this format. While his strikeout numbers are nothing special, he excels at limiting hard contact and is just above league average when looking at ground ball rate, which makes up for it.
Chris Bassitt finishes off a complete game shutout of one of the best offenses in baseball!
What a game from him👏 pic.twitter.com/G2I8jACQqc
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) May 13, 2023
Starting Pitcher - Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
Keller, similar to Bassitt, can go deep into starts but can be a high-risk, high-reward pick on draft day. The Pirates ace posted several outings where he went into the seventh and even eighth inning holding a shutout. However, several times he struggled to get through five innings. If you are looking for upside, target Keller, as he has shown signs of being a valuable asset, especially due to his ability to pitch deep into games.
Players to Fade for ESPN Points Drafts
The following players are not considered to be “do-not-draft.” Instead, you should proceed cautiously, as these players have the best skill set to succeed in this scoring format. If they fall to a reasonable ADP and you have a strong foundation, taking a chance on one of these players is reasonable.
Outfield - Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers
The newly acquired outfielder joins one of the best lineups in baseball, featuring All-Stars in almost every position, including Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani. So what is not to like about that?
Hernandez has a hefty 31.1% K% rate and a low 5.6% walk rate, dramatically lowering his ceiling in this format. There is an outcome where he has over 100 RBI but still finishes just outside the top-20 outfielders due to his poor on-base skills.
Third Base/Shortstop - Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds prospect took the baseball world by storm when he debuted last season. His flashy speed and power almost propelled the Reds to a postseason appearance. However, while he has elite potential, his strikeout rate of 33.7% was one of the worst in baseball last season. The potential is unquestioned; sadly, it is hard to see an outcome where De La Cruz lives up to his ADP in this format.
First Base - Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox first baseman is a popular pick in the industry as a breakout in 2024, and rightfully so. Casas was above average in almost every hitting category on Statcast last season. The one part of his game that worries me is his high 25.1% K% rate and 28.1% whiff rate. In a rotisserie league, this will not hinder you as much, but it can crush your team in this format. Casas does have the underlying numbers that suggest he could improve, but still, draft with caution.
Second Base/Shortstop - Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds
McLain dominated as soon he received the call to the majors, posting an incredible .300 AVG, .366 OBP, and .512 SLG in the first half of the season. However, I included him on this list due to his numbers in the second half.
He saw his average drop consistently as the season progressed and showed significant gaps in his play. The rookie finished the season with a 28.5% K% rate and a 7.7% walk rate, which is not a good match for this format.
When playing in an H2H points league, be sure to pay close attention to the scoring rules. To win on ESPN, the keys to success are targeting hitters with low strikeout rates and quality pitchers, especially ones with strong track records of going deep into their starts.
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