RADIO
The calendars turn over to a new month and we hope that brings us a bit more luck before I resort to seeking advice from my three-legged dog. Let down again on Monday by a goalkeeping error (for seemingly the umpteenth time already), we head into July with a four-game slate in the English Premier League. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have started off:
- Picks - 10 out of 23
- Parlays - 2 out of 7
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
Teams have now played two or three games each so we have a better understanding of what a 3-month hiatus has on the teams. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it'll be a wise move to take things slower and more sensible until the end of the season. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
Newcastle United @ Bournemouth - 1:00 pm ET
Newcastle United 14th - 39 pts
Bournemouth 18th - 27 pts
Bournemouth head into this game having lost both matches after the restart and failing to score in both games. They now find themselves in the relegation zone and will be desperate to get three points here to kickstart their survival bid. They've now gone six league games without a win and managed just a solitary draw in that run. Their sudden lack of goals is of big concern as before the restart they only failed to score in one of their previous six games. Bournemouth's deficiency has been a failure to keep clean sheets at home, something they have failed to do in their last nine league games and just twice all season (15 games).
Newcastle was knocked out of the FA Cup against Manchester City at the weekend but had picked up four points in their two league games prior to that. Their unbeaten league run is now at a modest four games but they've managed to get out of relegation danger as a result of that run and now sit comfortably knowing they likely don't need any more points and will still be safe. The issue for Newcastle has been a lack of goals all season with only two teams scoring fewer than the 29 they've managed (31 games). They did score three against Sheffield United in their first game of the restart, but all three came against 10-men and they managed just one against an Aston Villa side who has the league's worst defensive record.
Here we have a team that fails to keep clean sheets against a team that struggles for goals. If I had to pick a winner, I'd lean towards Bournemouth as their need is much greater and Newcastle won't force the game unless it's late and they're trailing. But I'm not confident enough to state they'll win. Instead, I'll look at the corners where we might be able to exploit.
Newcastle has had the fewest corners this season by a significant margin (123 in 31 games, 19 fewer than the next team). Only 49 of those have come in their 15 away games (average of 3.27 per game) and they've failed to win a corner in three of those games which is quite an achievement in a not-so-good way. Bournemouth averages 4.87 corners at home in the league and in a game where they will likely have much more possession and need to force the game more, they should get more corners here.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2 - 0 Newcastle (Pinnacle odds +1000)
Betting Pick:
- Corners - Handicap match corners Bournemouth -1.5 @ +100 (Pinnacle)
You can play it safe with handicap match corners Bournemouth -0.5 @ -159
Norwich City @ Arsenal - 1:00 pm ET
Norwich City 20th - 21 pts
Arsenal 10th - 43pts
Norwich is all but relegated with back-to-back league defeats since the resumption. They were knocked out of the FA Cup at the weekend by Manchester United too and while I do think Norwich will have a mini resurgence once it's mathematically impossible for them to survive (as we see so many teams play freely at that stage), I can't make a case for them here. Their away record is atrocious, just one win, three draws and eleven defeats in the league this season with just six goals scored and 26 conceded. Whilst they do try to get forward and play attacking football, they lack the quality to create enough chances and still give away far too many soft goals.
Arsenal started the league resumption with two straight defeats but a confidence-boosting win at Southampton was followed by an away win in the FA Cup on Sunday. This will be Arsenal's fifth game in the two weeks since the league restarted but remarkably, their first home game. While their away record leaves something to be desired, Arsenal at home has been a different kettle of fish. Their only losses at home this season came in consecutive games in December during the period of replacing Head coach Unai Emery with Mikel Arteta. Since that run, they've won four of five at home, scoring 11 and conceding 3.
On paper, this is the perfect game for Arsenal. Facing a team with a bad defensive who gives sloppy goals away and struggles to score should be anyone's ideal opponent but that's something Arsenal has managed to deal with more clinically than most teams in recent times. Captain and top-scorer Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has failed to score in four straight league games which is his longest drought since joining Arsenal. I expect that to end on Wednesday and although Arsenal is just as likely to give away soft goals as Norwich, they have too much-attacking threat and should win comfortably here.
Score prediction: Arsenal 3 - 0 Norwich City (Pinnacle odds +975)
Betting Pick:
- Team Props - Winner/Total Goals - Arsenal & over 2.5 goals @ +114 (Pinnacle)
Leicester City @ Everton- 1:00 pm ET
Leicester City 3rd - 55 pts
Everton 12th - 41pts
Leicester has had a disappointing resumption, drawing both league games against bottom-6 teams before exiting the FA Cup on Sunday at the hands of Chelsea. Their lack of goals in those three games (just one scored) is the biggest concern as they're the third-highest scorers in the league this season (59 goals in 31 games).
Everton battled out a credible 0-0 draw against Liverpool before beating the bottom side Norwich 1-0. Like Leicester, goals have been hard to come by since the restart but in Everton's case, that's less surprising given they've scored 21 fewer than Wednesday's opponents.
With these teams combined four games seeing a total of three goals, it's hard to envisage either team to suddenly break out offensively and have a high scoring game. One area of interest is the corners market. Both teams have had 181 corners this season, ranking them tied-5th (both teams have played 31 games). Despite being involved in low scoring games since the restart, Everton's two games have seen a total of 23 corners whilst Leicester's two league games have seen 22 (and their FA Cup game had 11 corners). Draftkings offers a one-game parlay that appeals.
Score prediction: Everton 1 - 1 Leicester City (Pinnacle odds - +525)
Betting Pick:
- Corners - Home team corners over 4.5 & away team corners over 3.5 (one game parley) @ +106 (Draftkings)
Chelsea @ West Ham United - 3:15 pm ET
Chelsea 4th - 55 pts
West Ham United 17th - 27pts
Chelsea followed up two 2-1 league wins with a 1-0 victory in the FA Cup at Leicester to join Wolves as the only team to have won all of their games since the league resumption. They've also managed to rotate players with 18 different players having started those three games, so they should be fresher than most sides. They do concede too many goals still to really kick on to being title contenders, with just two league clean sheets in their last 13 games but they are scoring goals freely to mitigate that. They've scored two or more goals in seven of their last eight league games, with a blank coming against Manchester United.
West Ham has been arguably the poorest team since the restart with both games ending in a 2-0 loss. While defeats against Tottenham and Wolves were expected, the manner in which they lost those games will be most worrying to their fans. West Ham appears to be social distancing from their opponents' penalty area having managed just two shots on target in both games and have yet to have a recognized striker on the pitch during either game. For those of you familiar with West Ham manager David Moyes, that might not come as a surprise either.
If you watched either of West Ham's games in June, you should be able to predict how this game goes too. They'll look to defend, soak up pressure and possibly nick a goal if they're lucky. If they keep trying that, it may work at some point. Chelsea has the most porous defense of the teams West Ham has faced since the restart and if they were going to score against one of the three teams, this was their most likely opponent to do so against. West Ham did beat Chelsea 1-0 away earlier this season in a game that played out exactly as mentioned above but lightning won't strike twice.
Score prediction: West Ham 0 - 2 Chelsea (Pinnacle odds +700)
Betting Pick:
- Game Lines - Chelsea to win & score over 1.5 goals @ -132 (Draftkings)
Parlay
I would parlay all games or go with two/three of them (or combo them all into doubles and trebles). All four games in a parlay give odds of +1550.
In order of my confidence in each pick (with no.1 being most confident).
- Newcastle @ Bournemouth
- Leicester City @ Everton
- Chelsea @ West Ham
- Norwich City @ Arsenal
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
