DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The AT&T Byron Nelson Golf Advice (2023)

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The AT&T Byron Nelson. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The AT&T Byron Nelson

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
•  The AT&T Byron Nelson Link

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 4

Last Two Winners Of The AT&T Byron Nelson
(Only Going To Look At This Course)

Expected Cut-Line

TPC Craig Ranch

7,414 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

There are a couple of notable things to discuss when we look at the short-lived history of TPC Craig Ranch on the PGA Tour. Beyond anything else, a two-year sample size makes pulling past results challenging since building a model will leave you with more questions than answers. However, that notion becomes even more problematic when you realize the venue has been susceptible to weather-altered divergences throughout its limited history on tour.

None of that has stopped the venue from playing as one of the most straightforward tournament's players will get all year. Still, something must be said about a general birdie fest being brutal when trying to extrapolate data since we are trying to diminish luck-filled returns and get ourselves away from the putting-centric expectations, not enhance them like we will get this week.

It is worth noting that the par-five 12th has been converted into a lengthy par-four that will stretch just under 500 yards. That will shift the track from a Par 72 to a Par 71, although the general expectation of long iron proximity and birdie or better percentage will still hold true for the week. Nearly 35% of approach shots have come from over 200 yards through two years. That is a total that is 11.8% above expectation, and honestly, the only other upgrade in projection comes from putting -- a stat that lands at about 38% of the dispersion of scoring for the week.

As I mentioned, that is not ideal for constructing our data into something tangible. However, I will try and look at historical trends on similar tracks to allow a more condensed model that starts to hone in on a course-specific blueprint versus potentially flawed data. That will be statistics like Bentgrass courses, TPC properties, easy scoring conditions, venues over 7,400 yards and wind play, which in turn allows a more rudimentary outlook that might simplify the process.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (20%)

Strokes Gained Total Wind 10%)

Weighted Bent - Putting Included - (12.5%)

SG: Total Easy Scoring + Easy Fairways (10%)

SG: Total TPC Courses (15%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Overall Birdie or Better Percentage (10%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

• Safest Play: Jordan Spieth ($10,600) - That might be a weird answer to give when Scottie Scheffler is one of the top two players in the world and hasn't missed a cut in 15 starts, but some of that reasoning comes down to the reduction in salary that we can grab on a golfer that hasn't finished worse than ninth here in two years at the course. Spieth landed inside the top six when highlighting six of my seven weighted categories, and the weighted calculation for Bentgrass that he posted made him the number one option in this field. Sure, he doesn't match Scheffler when shooting for upside, but it is not as if Scottie doesn't have some red flags when viewing his shaky putter.
• Most Upside: Scottie Scheffler ($11,900) - When you scroll through my model, you will find a ton of ranks that show the American #1 on my sheet. Scheffler is the cream of this crop, but as I alluded to a second ago, the putting on Bentgrass and long iron proximity from over 200 yards won't grade perfectly since each total is outside the top 75. We can get around some of the long iron play projections since it wasn't enough to take Scheffler outside the top 10 for weighted proximity this week, but the 95th-place rank for Bentgrass putting does appear more discouraging. If he makes putts, this could turn into a route. However, if he doesn't...will he pay off the salary? I am curious to see where ownership lands.
• Favorite GPP Play: Let's see where ownership comes in on Scheffler/Spieth. My initial lean would be Spieth is the better target. 
• Fade: None 
• Most Likely Winner: Jordan Spieth ($10,600)

*** Spieth has withdrawn because of a left wrist injury

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: K.H. Lee ($9,300) - Two years at TPC Craig Ranch has equaled two wins for K.H. Lee. Until that changes, it is hard to call anyone safer in this field.
• Most Upside: Jason Day ($9,400) -  Who is better historically than Jason Day when he is in form? Maybe Tiger Woods? I don't know if we have that level from him right now after experiencing vertigo issues the past month, but consider this my honorary way to get Day into the article. It remains to be seen if I will use him this week.
• Favorite GPP Play: Adam Scott ($9,200) - Sharper markets dislike Adam Scott. The general public seems to dislike Adam Scott. But I will swing for the fence here on a golfer that appears to have a different outlook from my model regarding his potential to succeed at TPC Craig Ranch. Scott landed number one in the field for weighted strokes gained total - a category we saw Sungjae Im pop in last week - and the weighted totals across the board are encouraging for a golfer with a built-in floor after producing 17 made cuts in a row.
• Fade: None -  No massive fade candidates. I will be underexposed/have no exposure to a handful of these names, but everyone has top 20 projections in some iteration. 
• Most Likely Winner: Adam Scott ($9,200) 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

• Safest Play: Stephan Jaeger ($8,200) - Jaeger hasn't quite undergone the Wyndham Clark transformation that allowed him to win an elevated event last week, but the 2023 version of him looks to be trending toward being a top 35 player on tour. There is a steady statistical profile across the board when we consider his added distance this season, and it will just come down to how the putter cooperates.
• Most Upside: Tom Hoge ($8,500) - Where things currently stand, I am not playing Tom Hoge. The ownership is too high for a golfer struggling the past few months. The upside should put him into the $9,000 range, but that generates a better outright option than DFS play. If he pops, he can win the event. But there is also a downside where he misses another cut.
• Favorite GPP Play: Seamus Power ($8,900) - Great course history, trending form and a high-end statistical profile. Sometimes the game is as simple as trying to find all three of those things. Power has a chance to flirt with another top 10 at the facility.
• Fade: Byeong Hun An ($8,600) - My model continues to be lower on Hun An than the public.
• Most Likely Winner: Seamus Power ($8,900) 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Everyone liked seeing some of the top names from the sheet, so here it is again!

Check out the model for all answers! There are too many players to discuss here today.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Go to the model to see where all players ranked!

Favorite Player In Each Section:

$10,000+ ()
$9,000's (Adam Scott)
$8,000's (Seamus Power)
$7,000's  (Scott Stallings)
$6,900's (Brice Garnett)

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