RADIO
Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! It's great to be back talking NFL DFS with you! I'm not big on taking victory laps, but you can call me Richard Petty at the moment. If you read last week's edition of Break The Slate, then you probably had a very profitable Sunday, as our highlighted plays included some of the strongest on the slate with players like Josh Allen, Taysom Hill, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Andrews all smashing for us!
As we turn our attention to Week 15, it appears that this slate will be drastically different from the one we saw just a week ago. As they do seemingly every year, injuries are mounting up and we also must be on high alert due to the extreme Covid-19 protocols that many NFL teams are currently dealing with. It all adds up to a slate that will require us to adapt throughout the week. It's likely that we won't actually be able to truly lock in lineups until shortly before kickoff. Due to the nature of this slate, I will update this article on Saturday, so please check back for late-breaking DFS news before finalizing your DraftKings lineups.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 15. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 15 DFS Picks
Tua Tagovailoa - NYJ @ MIA ($5,700)
I'm telling you guys, this slate is wild! Before I had a chance to get this article published, Miami's top pass catcher, Jaylen Waddle, has been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, which probably does ding Tua's value a bit. That said, Tagovailoa still stands out due to the nature of this elite plus matchup against the New York Jets.
The Jets have struggled to stop anything this season and enter Week 15 with a defense that's ranked dead last in the NFL in both Total and Pass Defense DVOA. New York is allowing 8.04 yards per attempt to opposing QBs and have hemorrhaged fantasy points to the position consistently, relinquishing an average of 20.1 DK points per game.
We're probably all well aware of the common knocks on Tua, but both he and this Miami team have been trending in the right direction as of late. He's now posted two or more TDs in five of his seven full games this season and has accounted for five scores over the Dolphins' last three. With the Miami backfield in complete Covid disarray as of this writing, it wouldn't be surprising to see Tagovailoa shoulder a bit more of the load for the offense this week.
Matthew Stafford - SEA @ LAR ($7,000) *SEA VS LAR HAS BEEN POSTPONED
I don't wanna have to harp on it throughout the article (though I probably will anyway), so I'll just get it out of the way with our first highlighted player, Matt Stafford: This slate contains lots of moving parts due to injuries and Covid-19 complications - especially when considering the hard-hit Rams - so basically every play we discuss this week should be categorized as "tentative" until we have a clear picture of who exactly is in and out for Week 15.
Ok, with that out of the way, let's dive in. It has undoubtedly been a great year for Stafford overall, though he has experienced some peaks and valleys throughout the season. It might sound like an oversimplification, but if you look at his production this year it is fairly straightforward...Stafford plays extremely well against teams with bad pass defenses and has struggled a bit against those with good units.
Stafford has faced five teams this season that ranked 25th or worse in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA (CHI, NYG, HOU, DET, JAX) at the time. Over those five games, he's accumulated 1,506 passing yards and 16 TDs to just a single interception. This week Stafford will take aim at the Seattle Seahawks, a pass-funnel defense that ranks just 28th in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA and has allowed the most passing yards (3,770) in the league.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
Shewww ok...if ever Saturday updates were needed, it's this week. As you can see with Matthew Stafford above, the SEA vs. LAR game has been postponed due to Covid and is no longer on the Main Slate, as has the WAS vs. PHI game. So we're now dealing with just nine games on the Main Slate with many of those still heavily impacted by injuries and Covid. At the QB position, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray stand head and shoulders above the rest. Allen and the Bills are in must-win mode, while Kyler is in a dome against Detroit. No one ever wants to play Aaron Rodgers, but he heads into Week 15 with DK totals of 32.6/29.3/36.5 over Green Bay's last three. Dak Prescott has disappointed as of late and it will likely be reflected in his ownership, but this high-octane Cowboys offense won't lay dormant forever...I love him as a GPP stack with Dallas pass catchers. Tua is my favorite salary saver at QB this week, but Tyler Huntley's rushing ability is intriguing at $5.4k if Lamar Jackson does indeed miss this game for Baltimore.
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 15 DFS Picks
Najee Harris - TEN @ PIT ($7,800)
It feels as though every running back I start to write up this week is followed by an if or but, so I suppose it makes sense to just lock in one of the few players at the position without any question marks, Najee Harris. The rookie's production this season isn't really going to blow you away but has undoubtedly been rock solid. Perhaps there's something to be said for grabbing some stability at RB on a slate where the entire position is in total flux.
Harris has been a volume monster for Pittsburgh this year, playing 84% of the Steelers' offensive snaps in a league where three-down backs are extinct. He leads all running backs in both total opportunities (312) and average opportunities per game (24.0) and is also tied for the second-most targets at the position with 75. He'll need all that volume this week against the Tennessee Titans, a team with a good run defense that we normally wouldn't go out of our way to target. Despite the tougher-than-we'd-like matchup, Harris does stand out on this unique slate for both the sheer amount of robust usage he receives in this offense and - to be frank - his lack of an injury tag.
James Robinson - HOU @ JAX ($5,400)
The breaking news that Jacksonville is finally ridding themselves of Urban Meyer sends my interest in embattled RB, James Robinson, skyrocketing. To a certain extent, this is still the Jaguars, so perhaps our expectations should be tempered a bit, but when it comes to Robinson specifically, we can at least expect him to actually be on the field this week.
Stuck in Meyer's doghouse as of late, Robinson has received a grand total of 15 touches over Jacksonville's last two - a stat that in and of itself is enough to justify Meyer's firing. A hopefully-rejuvenated Robinson steps into the mother of all "get right" spots this week against the Houston Texans, a squad that just let *CHECKS NOTES* Rashaad Penny run for 137 yards and two scores last week. The Texans rank dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and are relinquishing the second-most yards per carry (4.90) in the league to the RB position.
Elijah Mitchell - ATL @ SF ($6,200) *Elijah Mitchell HAS BEEN RULED OUT
Here comes those if and buts...San Fran's Elijah Mitchell has shredded when healthy this season, garnering 18 or more touches in five of the Niners' last six and averaging 18.76 DK points per game over that time frame. But...Mitchell seems to stay in a constant form of "Questionable" each week and that's once again the case for the Week 15 slate, as he is still stuck in the NFL's concussion protocol and not practicing as of Wednesday.
However, if Mitchell gets the go-ahead for Week 15, he draws an elite spot against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are somehow teetering on the edge of a .500 record, but it ain't because of their defense. Atlanta stands 30th in the NFL in Total Defense DVOA and 23rd in Rush Defense DVOA. In a week of "wait and see", Mitchell is certainly worth keeping an eye on as the week progresses.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
The ugliest slate we've seen for the RB position in quite a while...Ezekiel Elliott could always fall in the end zone a couple of times, but Zeke has looked totally washed over the last month. No one is playing Joe Mixon this week, but let's remember that he isn't too far removed from running off four straight performances of 25+ DK points, which makes him very interesting in GPPs. It looks as though James Conner will play through his ankle injury this week against Detroit, but will be rejoined by Chase Edmonds in Arizona's backfield. This would seem to make both unplayable, but the matchup might be too good to ignore, making both somewhat viable in GPP formats. Other similarly frustrating timeshare situations include Denver & Green Bay. Myles Gaskin has been cleared to return from the reserve/Covid list and is in an absolute SMASH spot against the Jets. James Robinson's ownership is going to be literally insane, some viable price-point pivots include Tennessee's D'Onta Foreman and San Fran's Jeff Wilson Jr.
DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 15 DFS Picks
Davante Adams - GB @ BAL ($8,900)
Davante Adams has been largely overshadowed by Cooper Kupp this season and I think that will bear itself out in the ownership levels each will carry on this slate. Priced at just $100 apart on DK, Adams could realistically come in with half the ownership of Kupp, a scenario that offers us instant leverage in GPPs.
The Green Bay wideout has reminded us of his upside as of late by going for over 100 yards receiving in each of the Packers' last three and posting 33 or more DK points in two of three. As for his matchup this week against Baltimore...it's almost ingrained in our football minds that the Ravens have a "tough" defense. However, that's not necessarily been the case as of late, with Baltimore's injury-depleted secondary proving itself to be susceptible to deep passes by allowing the most completions of 20-plus yards in the NFL with 56. The Ravens are relinquishing the seventh-most yards per target in the league at 8.63 and stand just 26th in Pass Defense DVOA. Baltimore has allowed four 100-plus yard games and one 200-plus yard game to opposing WRs this season. They have no one that is capable of slowing Adams down this week, with the only obstacle to a monster outing for the Packers' star being the question of whether or not Baltimore's offense can score enough to keep this one competitive.
DeVante Parker - NYJ @ MIA ($4,300)
Miami's DeVante Parker is another Covid-driven play - although I did find him in some of my Week 14 lineups when he gained clearance late last week, so this certainly isn't a pure "dart throw" play - thanks to the news that the Dolphins' top pass-catcher, Jaylen Waddle, is on the reserve/Covid list. After a breakout year in 2019, Parker's career has once again been stalled by injuries and he's only suited up for six games this season.
However, when he has been able to get on the field, he's been targeted. Parker comes into this week's matchup against the lowly Jets averaging a very healthy eight targets per game with a strong aDOT of 12.19. We can expect his already-sturdy usage to increase with Waddle off the field. As we mentioned when discussing Tua Tagovailoa earlier in this article, the matchup against the Jets is golden, as they rank dead last in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA.
DK Metcalf - SEA @ LAR ($6,200) *SEA VS. LAR HAS BEEN POSTPONED
DK Metcalf wasn't a player that was originally on my radar this week, but he shoots into instant consideration with the news that Seattle's Tyler Lockett has been placed on the reserve/Covid list. Metcalf appeared set to ascend to superstar status at the outset of the season but he's floundered over the back half of the year and hasn't reached the end zone since Week 8. However, the volume has been there for Metcalf - he's been targeted at least eight times in four of Seattle's last five - and we can expect his already-strong usage to spike even higher this week with Lockett now out of the lineup. That volume - coupled with the fact that Metcalf's aDOT of 13.15 is still elite - is why we're interested this week in what's an otherwise tough matchup against the L.A. Rams. Shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey's status is still up in the air - I would downgrade Metcalf a bit if Ramsey plays - but Metcalf has proven himself to be a physical freak that at times looks matchup proof. This is a talent + volume + positive game script play that brings some much-needed stability to our rosters this week.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
It looked as though we might grab Davante Adams at reasonable ownership, but with Cooper Kupp now off the Main Slate, DFS players will flock to the safety of Adams and his elite raw ceiling. He will be extremely popular. His teammates, Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, are both viable options against a leaky Ravens secondary. Deebo Samuel only had one catch last week and is currently relying on hyper-efficiency. Stefon Diggs just missed a huge outing last week against Tampa Bay and must be considered an elite option on this slate. Diggs' running mate, Gabriel Davis, is a lock-button cash-game play at just $3.7k. Pittsburgh's Dionte Johnson is simply a volume monster and has double-digit target counts in 10(!) games this season, while Chase Claypool sticks out as a boom/bust option in tournaments. A couple of high-upside WR corps will go largely overlooked this week: Dallas (Lamb, Cooper, Gallup) & Cincinnati (Chase, Higgins)...don't be afraid to fire them up in large-field formats. The same can be said for other low-owned plays such as Brandon Aiyuk, Brandin Cooks, & Julio Jones, while Jacksonville's Marvin Jones Jr. provides instant leverage off the mega-chalky James Robinson. With Arizona's DeAndre Hopkins out, both Christian Kirk and A.J. Green are rock-solid - and affordable - options.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 15 DFS Picks
George Kittle - ATL @ SF ($7,500)
George Kittle has been injured so often over the last couple of years that it's easy to forget what a great football player he is. However, he's reminded us just what a true beast he can be over the last two weeks. His output over San Fran's last two has been staggering: 24 catches on 27 targets for 332 yards and three TDs. To put things in perspective, Kittle has 80 more receiving yards than Cooper Kupp over the last two weeks. He's averaging an eye-popping 13.83 yards per catch with a YAC of 7.6. With the Niners' receiving corps banged up, he's garnered a ridiculous 40.3% target share and 44.9% of the Air Yards in this offense since Week 13.
It's legitimate to wonder if this type of superhuman output is sustainable. Well...I like his chances of posting at least one more Incredible Hulk outing this week against the Atlanta Falcons, a unit that stands just 29th in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA and has relinquished the seventh-most TDs in the league to the TE position.
Dawson Knox - CAR @ BUF ($5,100)
The "let's run it back" play of the week! Dawson Knox was highlighted in this article last week and came through huge with a 7/60/1 stat line against Tampa Bay. Surprisingly, Knox received just a $100 price bump on DK and still comes in with a cheaper salary than guys like Kyle Pitts and Zach Ertz. It shouldn't be breaking news to say that he's a huge part of this Buffalo passing attack, but it feels like people don't realize just how big of a role Knox is playing. He led the Bills in routes run last week and garnered nine targets against the Bucs. For the season, he's earned a 15.7% target share in this pass-happy offense and he'll also likely see a slight uptick with Emmanuel Sanders on the sidelines this week. He'll face a Carolina defense that, despite grading out 10th in Total Defense DVOA, has started to unravel a bit as of late and has relinquished 27 or more points in each of their last three.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
With all the available salary on this slate I look for George Kittle's ownership to skyrocket. If you are gonna eat the Davante Adams chalk, an interesting way to differentiate your lineup is by pairing him with Baltimore's Mark Andrews, who has actually performed well with Tyler Huntley at QB. Arizona's Zach Ertz popped up on the injury report Friday...that's never a good sign. Jaylen Waddle's absence should noticeably benefit Miami's glorified WR, Mike Gesicki. Steelers rookie Pat Freiermuth is TD-dependant but seems to catch one every week. His $4.5k salary represents my cut-off line at the TE position this week, as there's truly no need to punt with the salary that's available on this unique slate.
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