X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Deeper Draft Sleepers - NL Starting Pitchers

Todd Salem looks at deeper starting pitchers in the National League who are excellent fantasy baseball values at their current ADPs. Consider any of these names later on in 2020 drafts.

There are two main styles of player for fantasy owners in deep leagues as it pertains to starting pitching. One style leans cautious. These owners want starting pitchers who own spots in their team's rotation, thus accumulating counting stats for the long haul even if the peripherals aren't stupendous. The other style is for risk-takers. These owners want to grab high-upside players or prospects who could hit big and be major pieces for a deep-league team.

The downside of each strategy is obvious. Drafting safe in a deep league limits one's ceiling of production. A safe veteran who will throw 170 innings is a quality piece but probably won't win you anything. He may just prevent you from losing it. On the other end, those high-risk pieces could strike big, but they could also flame out and leave an owner with literally nothing of value for a main draft piece.

The best strategy for deep leagues is perhaps obvious: a combination of both. A fantasy team should hunt for smart risks while also having safe veterans ready to accumulate stats for the long haul. Leaning too far in either direction is a recipe for trouble.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

What is a Deep Sleeper?

Everyone could have their own definition of a deep sleeper or deep league. To me, a deep sleeper is anyone who would be disregarded for a standard draft. A good baseline is the top 300 players. In 12-team leagues with 25-man rosters, the top 300 guys are taken, with everyone else hitting the waiver wire. That means our deep sleepers are anyone outside of that top 300.

 

Dodgers Candidates

Every team must deal with injuries to the starting rotation at some point throughout a season. No team is better prepared to do so than the Dodgers. There was even talk before the suspended season that Los Angeles might toy with a six-man rotation from the start to take advantage of that depth.

After the top three (Kershaw, Buehler, Price), there are as many as six guys with not insubstantial claims to be in the rotation. Of the six, Ross Stripling (ADP-320) and Alex Wood (345) feel like the best value for potential return. In his four major league seasons, Stripling has been better than average each time out and has accumulated a career 115 ERA+. For any player who vacillates between starting and relieving, everyone would expect them to be better when relieving. It's an easier job. However, Stripling actually keeps his strikeouts and walks fewer batters when he's starting.

As for Wood, getting back to the Dodgers will do him some good. Other than his blip in Cincinnati last year, Wood has been great at allowing soft contact the past five years. Opposing batters rarely barrel the ball against him, while failing to put rise on their contact either. Last year was a mess, but there is a much longer track record of the opposite for Wood.

 

Remember Me?

It's been three years since we've gotten an extended look at Johnny Cueto (331). He remains a pitcher worth taking a late flyer on. His last full season, 2016, saw him make the All-Star team and finish in the top six of Cy Young voting. He is still San Francisco's top starter, meaning we should get a comfortable look at whether or not he still has enough left in his arm. If not, owners would be forced to cut bait, but if he does, this is a man with a career 121 ERA+ and 1.19 WHIP. He flashed great performances as recently as 2018 before succumbing to the need for Tommy John surgery.

Another pitcher looking to remind folks of his ability is Zach Davies (499). Unlike Cueto, Davies has dropped under the radar simply because he's been slightly disappointing his whole career. However, he is coming off his best statistical season to date and now finds himself in a new home that is awfully kind to pitchers. There is a ceiling on Davies' value since he doesn't strike anyone out, but at pick 499, he could be a tremendous bargain regardless. Combining his ability to avoid hard contact with moving to the third-friendliest pitcher park in baseball is a recipe for good, late value.

 

Veterans

Here are a few boring veterans for you to consider. Boring value in deep fantasy leagues is about finding accumulators who won't kill you in other categories. Jose Quintana (342) hasn't thrown fewer than 170 innings since his rookie year and has struck out 20 percent of opposing batters all seven years as well. Rick Porcello (393) has eaten up innings for even longer. Jon Lester (465) is easily going the latest in drafts of any of this trio, yet he remains rock solid. The last time he didn't deliver at least 170 innings with a WAR of 2.0 and a K% of 19 percent was 2008!

 

Brew Crew

There are questions up and down the Milwaukee rotation. Even Brandon Woodruff at the top has to rebound from injury and prove last year's breakout wasn't a fluke. But either way, the other four spots in the rotation currently belong to question marks with less talent than both Freddy Peralta (416) and Corbin Burnes (461). Drafting Peralta and Burnes at SP would be a risky endeavor, but it feels like only a matter of time until one or both get a real shot in the rotation.

Peralta is a strikeout monster with a career 30 percent K%. Milwaukee took him out of the rotation for most of 2019 as he gave up too much solid contact and struggled with secondary pitches. But his fastball is electric and plays up whether he pitches in relief or starting a game.

Burnes is in a similar situation. His fastball is elite, as is his K%. Burnes has also shown great movement and spin on his curveball. But, like Peralta, it didn't help him miss hard contact last season. Burnes was barreled up an alarming 11.7 percent of the time. Drafting either of these two young arms is about taking a chance on the talent and pedigree more than last year's results. Personally, they both seem worth the risk at their respective ADPs. It is hard to find this level of arm talent already in the majors and within a hair's breadth of a rotation spot.

 

Conclusion

Pitching is always a volatile fantasy position, even in shallow leagues. Guys get hurt or run into ruts of inconsistency. The 2020 season will be an even bigger question mark for the pitching arms. To find deep league success, owners must find a balance between upside and the safety of reliability.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Heads to Free Agency
Santi Aldama

Receives Qualifying Offer
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner has Team Option Declined
Jabari Smith Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Milwaukee Bucks

Bobby Portis Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Los Angeles Clippers

James Harden, Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Minnesota Timberwolves

Julius Randle Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers

Dorian Finney-Smith Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
LeBron James

Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Milwaukee Bucks

Kevin Porter Jr. Declining Player Option
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Toronto Raptors

Garrett Temple Returning to Toronto
Los Angeles Clippers

Nicolas Batum Declines Player Option
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Keon Johnson

Gets Team Option Picked Up
Rayan Rupert

Staying in Portland
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Tosses Seven Scoreless Innings in Fourth Win
Nick Martinez

Flirts With No-Hitter, Settles for Win
Gary Sánchez

Gary Sanchez Homers, Reaches Five Times in Onslaught
Trea Turner

Blasts Two Homers, Steals Base
Los Angeles Angels

Ron Washington to Remain on Medical Leave for Rest of the Season
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Jihaad Campbell

to Begin at Inside Linebacker
Josh Conerly Jr.

to Play Right Tackle for Now
Tyleik Williams

Expected to Fill Big Role Right Away
Malaki Starks

Should Make an Immediate Impact
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
Eric Cole

Hoping for Better Times at Rocket Classic
Beau Hossler

Searching for Form at Rocket Classic
PGA

Byeong Hun An in Good Form Heading into Rocket Classic
Cameron Young

Looking For Redemption and Possible First Career Victory in Detroit
Collin Morikawa

is The Headliner This Week in Detroit For Good Reason
Si Woo Kim

Back in Competition After Last Week's Withdrawal
PGA

Alex Noren Finishes Tied For 30th at Travelers Championship
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF