RADIO
Rick Lucks analyzes Jay Bruce, Gregory Polanco, and Wil Myers to see who will have continued success and which players will see a regression for the rest of the 2016 fantasy baseball season.
Over the last two weeks, we have profiled expensive draft day assets who have largely failed to live up to the hype. This week, we change it up a bit by discussing established players who have exceeded expectations thus far.
All three have experienced success before. Jay Bruce was once a feared slugger. Gregory Polanco swiped 27 bags just a year ago. Wil Myers was a super prospect. All have undeniable talent, but can they be expected to keep up their current levels of production moving forward?
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The Fantasy Jury Is Out
Jay Bruce (OF, CIN)
Bruce had fallen on hard times in recent years, producing a disappointing .226/.294/.434 line in 2015. Fantasy owners could be forgiven if he fell off of their radar. However, he sports a .268/.317/.546 and 18 big flies in his resurgent 2016 season. It is time to put him back on the radar.
Or is it? His .288 BABIP doesn't seems special at first, but his previous two seasons produced marks of .251 and .269. Bruce is never reaching his prime BABIP again thanks to the advent of the shift, and his current mark is propped up by a 21.8% LD%. While only slightly above average, Bruce has a career 19.7% rate and posted only 18.7% a season ago. If the liners fall off, the average could get depressing again.
I would feel better if Bruce was performing better against the shift, but he isn't. His .261 average against it is almost identical to his .265 from last year. The difference between the two seasons is his average when the shift is not in play - .444 this year against .246 a year ago. While Bruce is probably better than a .246 hitter talent-wise, .444 seems like a massive over-correction. Regression should be expected.
On the bright side, Bruce is striking out a lot less than he used to. The owner of an unsightly 27.3% K% just two seasons ago, he has followed up a 22.3% K% last year with an even better 20.5% mark so far this year. SwStr% supports the change, as 2014's 13.3% figure has declined to 10.9% this year. 10.9% is not much of an improvement over last year's 11.1% mark, however, so a few more strikeouts may await in Bruce's future.
Bruce has become more aggressive at the plate, upping his overall Swing% from 48.4% a year ago to 50.4%. The result has been fewer bases on balls, as his BB% has fallen from 8.9% to 6.3%. Part of the problem may be pitchers no longer fearing Bruce as much as they once did. His Zone% against has risen from 38.3% last year to 44.2% this, seemingly indicative of an increased willingness to challenge the Reds slugger. This may correct itself as pitchers look at this season's numbers, but a declining walk rate is never a good sign.
Bruce's best fantasy asset has always been power, and it is back in a big way this year. A marriage between a 40.2% FB% and an 18.8% HR/FB generally pleases fantasy owners. Two years ago, Bruce lost his FB% (34%) and failed to deliver as a result. Last year the flies came back (44.2%), but Bruce was doomed by a fluky low (and career worst) 13.3% HR/FB. He never stopped pulling his flies (24.5% last year, 25.5% this year), so bad luck seems the most likely culprit. Bruce's power stroke is back, and there is no reason to suspect it will go anywhere. Except possibly to another city.
Bruce is rumored to be on the trade block, potentially spelling trouble as 11 of his 18 dingers came in his current bandbox. Where will he go? The Nats could use an OF, but their need is really in center field. The Mets work, but Citi Field has ruined power guys before. The Reds may not want to trade Bruce in their own division, and San Francisco has an extreme pitcher's park. The Dodgers, Rangers and Orioles already have a glut of outfielders, and Cleveland's budget may not accommodate Bruce. Boston's crowded DL represents Bruce's best bet, but barring that it looks bleak for a power guy.
Bruce's average is bizarrely higher on the road (.291/.341/.576) than at home (.239/.287/.503), offering some hope that his season won't crater in another city. Still, his average seems doomed to fall due to a lower BABIP and extra strikeouts. At .268, it could become a liability in a hurry. When combined with Bruce slowing down (three steals against nine last year and 12 in 2014) and the uncertainty about where he will land, I would sell high if possible.
Verdict: Chump
Gregory Polanco (OF, PIT)
Polanco managed to disappoint fantasy owners last year despite 27 SB thanks to disappointing power numbers and a .250ish average. Billed as Andrew McCutchen-lite, owners felt cheated. In reality they were simply a year too early, as Polanco's .291/.366/.507 triple slash line with 12 dingers feels a lot like his teammate's production.
The biggest change is the power, as Polanco's HR/FB has surged to a 16.2% mark. While I am usually leery of power spikes like this, Polanco has dramatically increased the number of pulled fly balls off of his bat, pulling 25.7% this year against 21.2% last. His FB% has actually declined relative to last year (32.3% against 34.9% last), but an absurd 27.1% LD% leads me to believe some flies are being misclassified as line drives. I would love to see more fly balls, but at least more balls are airborne.
The inflated LD% has helped Polanco produce a .338 BABIP. That seems high, but a speedy player with a plus LD% would be the poster child for an elevated figure. Polanco's liners are crushing their usual production, .754 vs. .680 career. However, Polanco's grounders are underperforming their career .237 BABIP with a .194 mark. The number of line drives will probably decline, but he still feels like a .315-.320 BABIP guy to me.
What BABIP takes away, K% might actually return. Polanco is striking out slightly more often this season, posting a 20.6% K% against a 18.6% mark last year. His SwStr% has only increased nominally (8% to 8.3%), however, while his Z-Contact% has actually improved (89.2% to 91.3%). Quite frankly, nothing in his profile supports his current K%, and I expect it to be plus moving forward.
If anything is disappointing about Polanco's season, it is the decreased SB output. Nine bags so far are not particularly exciting, and the fact that he has been caught five times makes it worse. Last year's 27 for 37 was strong, and he routinely swiped around 40 bags in the minors. I'm willing to overlook the last three months as a blip, but the SB need to start coming soon for Polanco to be the speed guy fantasy owners want.
His BB% is way up (8.4% last year to 11.2% this), but this is more due to a 38.3% Zone% against than anything Polanco is doing. Of course, a player being willing to walk that often, especially with Polanco's legs, is a good sign for the future. He remains allergic to LHP (.239/.313/.408), but he is getting better against southpaws (career .197/.258/.301). He even hits in the coveted second slot most of the time. Overall, he is definitely trending upward.
Verdict: Champ
Wil Myers (OF, SD)
The only actual All-Star on this list, Myers is finally living up to the hype. He really knows how to fill a fantasy stat sheet, posting a .291/.355/.535 triple slash line with 19 homers and 14 steals. The latter number really surprised me. When the heck did Myers start stealing bases?
He hadn't until this year. Myers' previous career best was 12, and you need to add low minors seasons to get there. With only two CS, however, there is not a compelling reason for him to stop running. From a fantasy perspective, any steals from a first baseman are a welcome bonus, especially if he also produces the power numbers we expect from the position.
Okay, now back to our regularly scheduled analysis. Myers has a .317 BABIP this year, supported by a 20.2% LD%. That may not seem like much, but it is the first time since 2013 Myers has had a LD% anywhere close to the league average. Myers could post a plus-BABIP consistently if he can maintain his current LD%. All of his batted balls are performing at approximately their baseline levels, though a 3.2% IFFB% may be too low to be sustainable.
Myers also boasts excellent plate discipline. He's more than willing to take a walk, with a 9.6% BB% and 25.2% O-Swing%. His 19.7% K% is very good for a power hitter, and is completely supported by a 7.9% SwStr%. That is down from 9.9% last year, but most of the improvement has been outside of the strike zone. His Z-Contact% is only up slightly (85.9% to 87.4%), while his O-Contact% has exploded (52.7% last year to 68.7% this). In general, contact on pitches out of the strike zone leads to bad outcomes for the hitter. This hasn't hurt Myers yet, but could in the future.
The biggest question mark in Myers' profile is power. His power thus far is rooted in a 20.4% HR/FB, a number sustainable only by the league's best mashers. Myers has never shown signs of being an elite slugger, and his current 36.2% FB% does not suggest that he is on a path to becoming one. I could be persuaded to believe in the power if he was pulling more fly balls, but he really isn't. Pulling 20.4% of your flies is good, but Myers has a career rate of 21.1%. It hasn't actually changed.
Myers is receiving praise for an all-fields approach that includes home runs, but I don't buy it. He does not hit a ton of flies, and power breakouts are seldom fueled by an 8% drop in overall Pull% (44.1% last year to 36% this year). Without the power, Myers begins to look a lot like prime James Loney, a first baseman with some speed, a plus average and little power for his position. Did you want to draft prime James Loney in standard fantasy leagues? Neither did I.
Myers receives little in the way of lineup support, but his second slot in the order allows him to maximize what little he has to work with. He is bucking PETCO Park's image by hitting much better at home (.339/.392/.644) than on the road (.231/.311/.401), but that is probably just small sample noise. Ultimately, I don't buy Myers as a power hitter, meaning I can't trust him as a valuable fantasy asset. His plate discipline and speed may make him a good major leaguer, but it won't translate to our game well.
Verdict: Chump
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