Buy Low and Sell High: Trade and Waiver Targets for Week 16

July 12, 2013

Click here to get RotoBaller's fantasy baseball advice on early-season trade and waiver wire targets. Exercise the buy-low sell-high strategy with our advice!

Are you looking to trade?  If your answer is “yes”, then the RotoBaller.com Buy/Sell Weekly Article is where to some players of the week to Sell High and a few players to Buy Low.

You trade for one of two reasons:

1. You need a shortstop, have an extra third baseman and someone has as extra shortstop.  You trade a third baseman for a shortstop.  Done.
2. You have a player who is exceeding expectations.  He is unlikely to keep it up, so you trade him for a position you need. Done

In this week’s edition of Buy/Sell we will look at players that could start the season hot, that you should consider placing on your trading block:

BUY 'EM 

• Josh Hamilton - It might be too late to buy Hamilton now that he's hit four HR in the past two weeks with 11 RBI (including a huge two-HR five-RBI game on 7/10) , but it's also possible that whoever owns him is in the unfortunate possession of a last-place team and hasn't been paying close attention.  Hamilton was so bad for so long that if a manager didn't unload him and rode him out there every day of the year, he's either given up, is frustrated beyond and belief and may still deal Hamilton for a decent offer, OR else he's been waiting so long for the breakout that he's got a G.I. Joe Kung Foo Grip on Hambone right now.  Depending on your league, it could be the former, and it could be a good time for you to strike!
• Dan Straily - Straily led the minors in strikeouts in 2012 before his call-up, and he is widely thought to have an incredibly mature arsenal for a 24-year-old pitcher.  His past two starts have been great, and Straily's thrown a combined 13.1 IP with 13 K, six BB, and just one ER. He is missing bats at an 11.5% clip this year, which is way above league average.  He also induces a lot of bad swings at pitches out of the zone, and gets ahead of hitters at a rate slightly better than the league average. All of that adds up to a pitcher who should have a high K/BB ceiling the rest of the way. Target Straily and you'll be rewarded with a #3 or 4 fantasy pitcher for the second half.
• Mike Minor - Minor had a pretty rough June on the fantasy score sheet, finishing with a 4.20 ERA. His first two starts in July have returned a 3.65 ERA. Minor's BABIP for June and July was .330 and .314, respectively, and that tells you all you need to know in order to go pluck Minor away from an owner who is fed up with his past fice starts.  Let me explain: Minor is a very fly-ball heavy pitcher, and fly balls make outs more often than ground balls, meaning we can expect a fly-ball pitcher to have a much lower BABIP than the average hurler. Minor's history makes a case in point here, as exhibited by his .252 BABIP in 2012 and .243 BABIP in April / May of 2013.  Once the hits stop falling, the Mike Minor of April and May will return.  After all, his peripherals are great: solid K/BB rates, incredible first-strike % and filthy swing-and-miss numbers.  He has the stuff to be a top-15 SP the rest of the way; the only question is whether you can grab him from an unsuspecting owner.

SELL 'EM

• Matt Moore - Moore's stock is a inflated as it will be with his All-Star selection and 25 K over his past 20.2 shutdown IP.  Yes, he's been great recently, but he still has substantial control issues, and even during this "great" stretch, he's issuing three walks per nine IP, which is only league average. His 13 wins are flukey, and all they'll do is pump his value.  Moore is one of those young guys whose results have been eclipsed by his brand. If there's an owner in your league who's fiending for a young stud like Moore, it would be wise to see how much you can extract out of him; try to land a big bat if you can.
• Yasiel Puig - I know, I know, it's crazy to even say the words "sell" and "Puig" in the same breath. Hear me out: Puig's legend has taken on almost mythical proportions.  People are seriously infatuated with him, and for good reason.  He's been other-worldly so far, but unless your name is Miguel Cabrera, you're not going to bat over .360 on the year. That means a correction is coming, and it's supported by Puig's 4.6% BB rate and enormous 23% K rate.  Mike Trout was an outlier last year maintaining a .320+ BA with a K-rate north of 20%-- that kind of combination is extraordinarily rare, and unsustainable when it does appear. Even if Puig finishes the year at .330 (which would be great), that means he's batting .about 290 the rest of the way. Yes, .290 is solid, but it's not the type of value people think of when they hear the word "Puig." Bottom line: he's a great ballplayer, and a huge fantasy asset, but if you can get a frontline ace starting pitcher, or another big position bat, it could be a great deal for the rest of the year.

Do you have someone going on the DL?  Did you do a 2 for 1 trade?  Do you have someone you need to drop?  And are looking for someone to pick up? Check out the Rotoballer.com Ultimate Waiver Wire Pickups List. The Waiver Wire Watch List provides in depth analysis on players that may currently be available for you to pick up free of charge.  One of the best fantasy baseball features currently on the world wide web!

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