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Every year, a new crop of expected and unexpected breakout performances emerges. Some surges are the result of blossoming prospects finally hitting their stride, while others may be late bloomers who are finally figuring out the major league level.
In other cases, the breakout season may have more to do with luck. Whether the result of hot streaks, outlier performance, or other extenuating circumstances, something about the success of these players may not be sustainable. Predicting whether past strong performance is consistent with a player’s fantasy value going forward is a crucial part of the draft strategy.
This article will explore several outfielders who excelled beyond their ADP in 2023 and unfold why they might take a step back this season. The players on this list are not without fantasy value going forward, though they did outperform themselves last year, and their perceived value may now be inflated.
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Lane Thomas, Washington Nationals
Lane Thomas was a rare bright spot in the mediocre Washington Nationals lineup last season. The outfielder slashed .268/.315/.468 with 28 home runs and 20 stolen bases across 156 games played. Entering his age-28 season, Thomas should continue to find success, though there’s enough reason to believe regression is headed his way.
At the center of the argument is Thomas’ uninspiring batted ball metrics. He produced just an 88.5 MPH average exit velocity and a 40.7% hard-hit rate in 2023. That amounts to a middling .255 xBA and .436 xSLG. These aren’t bad numbers, but Thomas' underlying numbers are closer to average across the board, and the 28-home run total he reached last season is unlikely to be repeated this year.
Given a more grounded view of Thomas' hitting ability, running is his greatest offensive asset, ranking in the 94th percentile for sprint speed. Unfortunately, his ability to consistently get on base significantly hinders the associated upside. Thomas generated a weak 5.3% walk rate last season. That, mixed with a .255 xBA, amounts to a below-average .319 xwOBA – significantly regressing from the .334 wOBA mark he ended up with at the season's end.
Thomas is certainly a capable stolen base threat, but he may not be on base frequently enough to utilize it, and he has only attempted 48 total stolen bases in his five-year career. The numbers suggest that Thomas had a ceiling performance in many aspects last season. He should remain a productive fantasy asset in 2024, though regression feels like the most likely outcome.
James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers
James Outman is coming off of an impressive rookie campaign in 2023. Over 151 games played, he produced a .248/.353/.437 slash line. That includes 23 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a third-place finish for the National League Rookie of the Year award. The 26-year-old figures to have an everyday role in the back end of a loaded Los Angeles Dodgers batting order, though he may not maintain the same level of productivity in 2024.
In contradiction to Outman’s offensive surge last season, many of the underlying metrics are not so encouraging. That includes a .228 xBA, alongside similarly underwhelming numbers, like a .396 xSLG, 87.9 MPH average exit velocity, and a 39.9% hard-hit rate. His 12% walk rate is impressive, but combined with overperformance in batting average and power output, that amounts to a middling .325 xwOBA – a noteworthy departure from Outman’s .344 wOBA.
Another concern with Outman’s approach is an inability to put the bat on the ball consistently. Undoubtedly, his plate discipline is mature, chasing on only 25.3% of pitches out of the zone. However, that becomes less effective in combination with a horrendous 36.6% whiff rate and 31.9% strikeout rate. Outman is walking or striking out on close to half of his plate appearances, and with unspectacular batted-ball metrics, the fantasy value here might be overrated.
As with Lane Thomas, there remains worthwhile fantasy appeal with Outman. He is only 26 years old and part of a lineup that will score plenty of runs. That said, unless Outman can improve on his contact metrics, it seems likely his offensive production will take a step backward.
Christopher Morel, Chicago Cubs
Christopher Morel was on a torrid pace to begin last season. His 2023 started in Triple-A, where he smashed 11 home runs over 29 games played with a 180 wRC+. As hype grew, Morel was soon promoted to the Chicago Cubs’ major league roster, and he immediately delivered nine home runs in his first 12 appearances. By June's arrival, Morel’s reputation as one of baseball’s premier power hitters was cemented.
Christopher Morel is the youngest player in MLB history to hit at least 9 home runs in their first 12 games of a season.
pic.twitter.com/u9NAT3Vh9o— MLB Metrics (@MLBMetrics) May 24, 2023
While the impression Morel made during the spring still resonates, the reality is that his contributions were largely concentrated. He finished the campaign with a respectable .247/.313/.508 slash line alongside 26 home runs over 107 games played. Overall, that puts Morel on a nearly 40-home run pace in a 150-game campaign. However, if we exclude his nine home runs in the 12-game stretch as an outlier, then the remaining sample size puts Morel in the 25-30 home run range, given a full season.
When Morel makes contact, the power is undeniable. The problem is that making contact is far from a given. Morel strikes out at a generous 31% rate, made worse by a subpar 28.9% chase rate and a horrific 37% whiff rate. He’s aggressive to a fault, swinging at first pitches 41.7% of the time, way above the league average of 29.6%. It’s probably just a side of Morel’s game that fantasy managers will have to accept, but it’s far from ideal. If he can't improve on his plate discipline, opposing pitchers will certainly adapt accordingly.
Nearly every projection model agrees that Morel will take a step back in 2024. Still, fantasy managers can expect him to be a key contributor in the Cubs batting order. With an already established everyday playing role, Morel should finally receive a full season workload. His counting stats will probably resemble the numbers he put up last year, though at a less efficient pace.
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