RADIO
I would imagine those who read Part One of the breakout receivers from the 2023 season likely have a pretty good guess as to who we'll be discussing here. While passing numbers across the league slightly dipped this season, the NFL is still very much a passing game and that is here to stay. This has led to the utilization of more receivers for each team. 11-personnel is the most commonly used formation nowadays, which requires three receivers to be on the field at all times. Because of that, fantasy managers are gifted with more and more breakout receivers each season. Those players come in many forms. Second-year players, third-year players, and even rookies who significantly surpassed preseason expectations. Recently, the amount of instant-impact performers from rookie receivers has been on the rise.
Previous entries of the 2023 Breakout Performers can be found here:
On top of the four breakout receivers that we already covered in part one, we'll now be shifting our focus to five more breakout receivers from the 2023 NFL Season. Breaking out comes with an emphasis on not only their fantasy football production but also their value and production for their actual squad. How efficient and effective were they? We've been looking at these breakout performances from not just a fantasy football viewpoint, but also through NFL lenses.
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Nico Collins, Houston Texans
In his first two seasons in the NFL (24 total games), Collins had combined for 126 targets, 70 receptions, 927 yards, and three touchdowns. From 2021-2022, the Texans were a mess. They had different head coaches each year. Different offensive coordinators. Davis Mills, a third-round rookie in 2021 started the majority of games in each of those two seasons and if he wasn’t for Zach Wilson, would have likely been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL.
That’s what Collins dealt with in the first two seasons. Still, all the context in all of the world could not have predicted the third-year breakout Collins had. He finished with 109 targets, 80 receptions, 1,297 yards, and 8 touchdowns in just 15 games. His per-game averages would have resulted in 124 targets, 91 receptions, 1,470 yards, and 9 touchdowns.
This may be hard to believe, but Collins’ 2023 could have been even better. That’s because Collins had just a 77.2% route participation rate. This ranked just 68th (!!!) among receivers. He ran 400 routes total (56th-most). It’s certainly possible, probable even, that in 2024 both of those numbers go up considering how effective Collins was.
If he were to have played all 17 games AND had a 90% route participation rate, Collins would have had 128 more routes run. That is a lot more potential volume. That’s something to keep in mind when looking towards 2024 because Collins was absolutely electric with the volume he did receive. Among receivers with at least 50 targets, this is where he ranked in some key metrics:
- Seventh-Highest Yard Per Reception Average (16.2)
- Second-Highest Yard Per Target Average (11.9)
- Third-Highest YAC Per Reception (6.9)
- Highest Reception Per Broken Tackle Rate (1 Broken Tackle Every 5th Reception)
- Fourth-Lowest Drop Rate (1.8%)
- Second-Highest Yard Per Route Run Average (3.24)
- 10th-Highest Yard Per Team Pass Attempt Average (2.51)
He finished 2023 with a 22.7% target share, which ranked 29th among receivers, but had a much more impressive target per route run rate of 27.3%, which was 14th best. This number and his lower route participation rate could result in another step forward in 2024 if that route participation rate does increase. All around, Collins was one of the most efficient and effective receivers in the NFL this past season.
Nico Collins had the 6th most valuable WR season by my NFL Plus/Minus metrichttps://t.co/F89ZElI9V7 pic.twitter.com/b8XvWfNI87
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) January 13, 2024
Collins finished as the WR13 with a 13.6 half-PPR PPG average. He had five weeks where he finished as a top-12 receiver but did not have a single top-24 performance. He was a bit of a boom-or-bust performer with four weeks where he finished in the top six and four weeks where he finished outside the top 50. In 14 fantasy football weeks, Collins scored over 10 half-PPR points in 10 contests. With fellow breakout performer, C.J. Stroud, Collins should be viewed as a top-15 receiver entering the 2024 season.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Pittman has been a very good receiver in the past. From 2021-2022, he had 270 total targets (135 seasonal average), 187 total receptions (93.5 average), 2,007 (1,003 average), and 10 touchdowns (five average). He managed to do that with Carson Wentz in 2021 and a combination of Matt Ryan in his final season, Sam Ehlinger, and Nick Foles in 2022. Pretty impressive stuff, but he took his game to new heights this past season. He went from a mid-to-backend WR2 to a legit WR1. You’d think he finally got a quarterback, but Gardner Minshew wasn’t all that different from the quarterback play he received in the previous two seasons.
- Pass Attempts: 521 (2021) vs 604 (2022) vs 574 (2023)
- Completion Percentage: 62.2% (2021) vs 65.9% (2022) vs 61.8% (2023)
- Passing Yards: 3,563 (2021) vs 3,854 (2022) vs 3,882 (2023)
- Passing Touchdowns: 27 (2021) vs 17 (2022) vs 18 (2023)
- Interception Rate: 1.4% (2021) vs 2.8% (2022) vs 1.7 (2023)
- Yards Per Attempt: 6.9 (2021) vs 6.4 (2022) vs 6.8 (2023)
- Quarterback Rating: 93.5 (2021) vs 79.2 (2022) vs 85.0 (2023)
So, what changed? New head Shane Steichen certainly deserves credit for getting the most out of his players. Pittman also deserves a ton of praise and recognition for continuing to get better and better. Remember his two-year stats from 2021-2022 and his per-season averages? In 2023, Pittman had 156 targets (career-high and ninth among all receivers), 109 receptions (career-high and fourth among all receivers), and 1,152 yards (career-high and 14th among all receivers). I’d call that a breakout season.
His game and what he does well is similar to Keenan Allen or Michael Thomas during his prime. In fact, Thomas might be the best comparison to Pittman. In Thomas’ earlier years when he was dominating the league, his average depth of target fluctuated between 8-9 yards. Pittman does his work in the same fashion. His average depth of target this past season was 7.9 and it was 6.9 and 8.8 in the two years prior. Because of this, he doesn’t have a high yard per reception or yard per target average. That’s just not his game.
He did, however, have the fourth-highest target share among receivers at 30.5% and the eighth-highest target per route run rate at 28.1%. He also registered the 23rd-best yard per route run average at 2.08 and averaged 2.15 yards per team pass attempt, which was the 14th-best. He also finished with the sixth-lowest drop rate at just 1.9% and his contested catch rate was 11th-best at 57.7%.
Pittman finished the 2023 season tied as the WR16 with a 12.7 half-PPR PPG. The reason his finish wasn’t better was solely because he scored just four touchdowns. That is some bad luck considering the sheer number of targets he earned this season, but it’s more than that. He also finished with 19 red zone targets, which was ninth-highest among receivers.
He had five weeks where he finished as a top-12 receiver in half-PPR scoring and another six weeks where he finished as a top-30 receiver. He only had three weeks where he finished outside of the top 36 at his position. He was a consistent fantasy producer despite some pretty awful touchdown luck. Looking forward to 2024, Pittman should be viewed as a high-end WR2 with top-12 potential with Anthony Richardson back under center.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
From an efficiency standpoint, Aiyuk has an argument for being one of the top 10 receivers in the NFL. He likely gets overlooked in that discussion because his team doesn’t throw the ball very often and there are so many other mouths to feed. While Deebo Samuel’s skillset needs a Kyle Shanahan offensive mind to truly reach his ceiling, Aiyuk might actually thrive even more somewhere he’s given the kind of role and volume his talent deserves, but no matter where he is, he’s a budding superstar.
Aiyuk finished 2023 with 105 targets and 75 receptions. This ranked 30th and 25th among receivers, respectively. It’s a byproduct of San Francisco’s offense and Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey all demanding targets as well. Despite this, Aiyuk still finished seventh (!!!) with 1,342 yards. If that’s not mind-blowing, this will be. Aiyuk ran 422 routes this season. 52 receivers ran more. He finished seventh in receiving yards. Clearly, he’s one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL and that’s showcased by where he ranks in several key statistics among receivers with at least 50 targets:
- Second-Highest Yard Per Reception Average (17.9)
- Highest Yard Per Target Average (12.8)
- 25th-Highest YAC Per Reception Average (5.1)
- Sixth-Lowest Drop Rate (1.9%)
- 15th-Highest Air Yards (1,447)
- 14th-Highest Air Yards Share (37.9%)
- 18th-Highest Target Share (25.0%)
- 21st-Highest Target Per Route Run Average (24.9%)
- Third-Highest Yard Per Route Run Average (3.18)
- Second-Highest Yards per Team Pass Attempt Average (2.96)
- 19th-Highest Contested Catch Rate (52.9%)
Yeah, he’s good. Incredibly good. In an alternate universe where Aiyuk is the WR1 in a place like Arizona with Kyler Murray or maybe Green Bay with Jordan Love is Aiyuk being mentioned in the same discussion with CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown? Yeah, I think he might be. That’s how incredible those numbers are and as incredible as he was for the 49ers, he was just as incredible for fantasy managers. He finished as the WR12 with a 13.8 half-PPR PPG average. Aiyuk had four top-10 weekly finishes and another five weeks where he finished as a top-24 receiver. He had four other weeks where he finished as a top-36 receiver. He played in 15 relevant fantasy games. He finished worse than WR36 on just two occasions.
Brandon Aiyuk making plays pic.twitter.com/Ez0N8Dr2XM
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 18, 2024
Following the team’s bye week in Week 9, he averaged 14.5 half-PPR PPG, giving fantasy managers a strong performance in the second half of the season. He also finished as the WR21 in Week 16 with 14.3 half-PPR points and was WR5 in Week 17, Championship Week, with 20.9 half-PPR points. He showed up when it mattered the most. Looking forward to 2024, Aiyuk should be viewed as a high-end WR2 with WR1 potential.
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
If you were just looking at the box score, you’d think it took until Week 12 for everything to click for Rice. Looking at some of his efficiency metrics, that isn’t completely true. The only thing Rice ever needed was more playing time. For whatever reason it took head coach Andy Reid 11 weeks to truly unleash Rice. However, his 2.29-yard-per-route run average from Weeks 1-11 is very, very good and his 25% target rate showcased a player who was on the verge of a true breakout if he could just get more opportunity. During this time, Rice was running just 18 routes per game.
| Time | Targets Per Game | Target Share | Target Rate | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Air Yards Per Game | Air Yards Share | YPRR | YPT | Routes Per Game | Half-PPR PPG |
| Weeks 1-11 | 4.6 | 12% | 25% | 3.6 | 42.0 | 22.9 | 9% | 2.29 | 9.1 | 18.3 | 8.4 |
| Weeks 12-WC | 9.7 | 25% | 30% | 7.3 | 92.6 | 47.0 | 21% | 2.89 | 9.5 | 32.0 | 16.0 |
The training wheels were finally taken off in Week 12 and the results speak for themselves. His 2.89-yard-per-route run average from Week 12 through the Wild Card round of the playoffs would have ranked fifth among receivers this past season. However, his 2.29 YPRR average from Weeks 1-11 would have ranked 17th. His 30% target rate in the second half of the season would have finished as the third-highest, but even his 2% target rate from Weeks 1-11 would have finished 20th. He was effective from the get-go, but he just didn’t have the opportunity to truly showcase it.
In the end, Rice finished with 102 receptions (33rd-most), 79 receptions (19th-most), 938 yards (28th-most), and seven touchdowns (15th-most). It’s a truly impressive season considering he was very much a part-time player for the first 11 weeks of the year. He averaged 8.3 YAC per reception, which was second to only Deebo Samuel. He was just 0.5 yards shy of Samuel but had Collins, who finished third in this category by 1.4 yards.
Among 74 WR with 350+ routes run in 2023, there were only two to average 7+ yards after the catch per reception:
8.8 - Deebo Samuel
8.3 - Rashee RiceRice's insane YAC ability resulted in a top-10 yard per route run rate, putting him in elite company.
(📷@TruMediaSports) pic.twitter.com/Zo4ECzyfWz— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) January 15, 2024
In the first 11 weeks of the season, Rice had four top-30 weekly performances in half-PPR scoring. However, from Weeks 12-17, Rice had three top-12 weeks and two other top-30 performances. From Weeks 12-17, Rice averaged 14.9 half-PPR points, which was WR10 over that stretch. He was a quality contributor in the fantasy playoffs, as well.
In Week 14, he scored 14.7 half-PPR points and was the WR12 on the week. In Week 15, he scored 19.6 half-PPR points and was the WR10 on the week. He followed that up with 8.7 points and a WR38 finish in Week 16 and 15.2 points and a WR16 finish in Week 17. Looking forward to 2024, Rice should be viewed as a high-end WR2 with a legit top-12 upside. Down the stretch, he operated as Patrick Mahomes’ No. 1 target, even ahead of Travis Kelce. Having earned that kind of attention, don’t be surprised if Rice finishes inside the top 10 for receivers next season.
Tank Dell, Houston Texans
As previously mentioned, when talking about a rookie breakout, we're focusing on how much the player exceeded their preseason expectations. For Dell, very few third-round receivers make an immediate impact in their rookie season. That wasn't the only element working against Dell.
Historically, players of each size have not been successful. Since 1992, there have been 300 seasons from receivers who were 5'10 or shorter and 175 pounds or less. Dell is 5'8 and 165 pounds. Of those 300 seasons from receivers who met these height and weight criteria, Dell ranks eighth all-time in receiving yards per game. There have only been five seasons where a receiver 5'10 or shorter and 175 pounds or less finished with 1,000 or more yards. All five instances came from DeSean Jackson.
Dell's 64.5-yard per-game average had him on pace to do it his rookie season had he not missed six games. Of those 300 seasons, Dell's 2023 ranks fourth with seven touchdowns, 47th in receptions, and 42nd in targets. If we use his per-game averages, he would've ranked seventh in targets, fifth in receptions, fourth in yards, and second in touchdowns.
Since 2000, there have been 96 receivers drafted in the third round. Despite missing six games, Dell ranks 11th in targets, 11th in receptions, ninth in yards, third in yards per game, and tied for second in touchdowns. Using his per-game averages, he would've finished first in targets, first in receptions, first in yards, and first in touchdowns. Needless to say, I think we can effectively say Dell out-played his draft capital and preseason expectations.
He finished his rookie season with 75 targets (56th-most), 47 receptions (54th-most), 709 yards (45th-most), and seven touchdowns (tied for 17th). Again, Dell only played 11 games. If we use his per-game averages, he would've finished with 117 targets (would have been 23rd-most), 73 receptions (26th-most), 1,096 yards (19th), and 11 touchdowns (fourth). That's not a perfect science since obviously, other players missed games, but it's merely just to point out how well he played in the games he was active. His effectiveness is even better than that, however. Below is where Dell ranked among receivers with at least 50 targets this past season:
- 18th-Highest Yard Per Reception Average (15.1)
- 16th-Highest Yard Per Target Average (9.5)
- 20th-Highest Target Per Route Run Rate (24.9%)
- 14th-Highest Yard Per Route Run (2.36)
- 30th-Highest Yard Per Team Pass Attempt (1.80)
- 10th-Highest Air Yards Per Game Average (107.0)
- 22nd-Highest Air Yard Share (32.0%)
Dell surpassed all preseason expectations in regards to his on-the-field value and what he brought to the Texans' offense. He did the same for fantasy managers. He finished as the WR15 with a 12.9 half-PPR PPG. However, he scored zero points in Week 13 before exiting with what would become a season-ending injury. He had only played 13% of the team's snaps. If we eliminate this game from his sample, his PPG average jumps to 14.1 half-PPR PPG, which would have been the WR10.
Of those 10 games (eliminating his injury-shortened contest), Dell finished as a top-12 receiver four times. He added two other top-24 weeks. Dell provided fantasy managers with WR2 value or better on 60% of his games. In his other four games, he failed to score more than seven half-PPR points and finished below WR45 in each of those weeks.
there’s been 8 Rookie Wide Receivers to post 14+ PPG and an 82+ PFF Grade
[ Ja’Marr Chase ]
[ Justin Jefferson ]
[ Odell Beckham Jr ]
[ Mike Evans ]
[ Keenan Allen ]
[ Michael Thomas ]
[ Puka Nacua ]
[ Tank Dell ]consensus has already forgotten about Tank Dell… BUY pic.twitter.com/1RRedjTdkv
— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) January 22, 2024
Looking forward to 2024, the trio of C.J. Stroud, Collins, and Dell should be a very productive fantasy football group. This offense should be a top-10 unit next season and one that is centered around their young, superstar quarterback and his two breakout receivers. As excellent as Dell performed as a rookie, it's fair to prefer Collins over Dell between the two, but that doesn't mean having to be out on Dell. He should be valued as a solid WR2. He performed excellently across the board and that translated to fantasy success.
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