RADIO
Every NFL season offers fans and fantasy managers alike new breakout performers every year. There's nothing better than seeing a player significantly outperform the expectations that were set on them, especially young players or guys who for whatever reason were written off before even getting a fair shake. In this article series, we'll be looking at breakout players at each of the four fantasy-relevant positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end). This first entry will focus on the quarterback position.
We'll be judging these breakout performers at all four positions, not only by their fantasy stats, but also by their play on the field. Oftentimes, these two elements go hand in hand. If their fantasy stats are good, most of the time their on-the-field stats are also very good. Sam Howell is a good example of how that isn't always the case. He had nine top-12 weeks with another week where he was QB13 on the week and another where he was QB14. He was the QB6 in PPG through the first 13 weeks of the season before the wheels fell off spectacularly in Weeks 15-18 (Washington had a Week 14 bye). Even his performance in those first 13 weeks left a lot to be desired from a real-life perspective even though he was crushing it as a fantasy option. It's why you won't find his name below.
Since there are only 32 teams and just one quarterback, there are fewer breakout players for our first position. Due to that, I've included two other signal-callers that deserve honorable mentions. They each had excellent years, but for a few reasons, didn't fully constitute a true breakout performance. Still, they deserve recognition for what they accomplished in 2023. One of our honorable mentions could very well be the headliner of this article next season.
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Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Plenty of NFL fans and fantasy managers had their minds made up on Love before the season started. There were several reasons why people thought this. He had 17 interceptions and just 20 touchdowns in his final collegiate season. He sat on the bench for three years. The Packers just had Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Surely they couldn't hit on three straight quarterbacks. Take your pick, but plenty were fairly certain of Love's talent before he even had a chance to take the field.
While Love has had the benefit of excellent coaching, the offense he was expected to lead this past season appeared to be lacking in talent. Romeo Doubs was just a second-year receiver and a former fifth-round pick. Christian Watson was also just a second-year receiver. The rest of his pass-catchers were all rookies. Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft were all in their first season in the NFL. Then All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari went on IR. Aaron Jones missed six games and was limited in a few more. Watson missed eight games. Musgrave missed six.
All of that youth showed up the first eight weeks of the season. Love and the rest of the offense was up and down. They were still finding their footing. The same goes for head coach Matt LaFleur. He was learning which players best fit into each spot. Then something magically happened from Week 9 onward. Love went through one of the biggest and most extreme midseason breakouts you'll ever see. It was truly the tale of two seasons.
During the first eight weeks, Love had glimpses of good play, but was incredibly inconsistent. The entire offense struggled to string together multiple good plays, much less drives or games. Since Week 9, however, Love has arguably been the best quarterback on Planet Earth.
Jordan Love: Clean Pocket Passing
Entering Week 9 Vs. Now pic.twitter.com/u0e14C4u8z
— Jacob Morley (@JacobMorley) January 4, 2024
Jordan Love: Under Pressure
Entering Week 9 vs. Now. pic.twitter.com/eIm3w6OnYj
— Jacob Morley (@JacobMorley) January 4, 2024
Jordan Love: Deep Passing
Numbers entering Week 9 vs. Now pic.twitter.com/jCGotFuSuG
— Jacob Morley (@JacobMorley) January 4, 2024
How crazy has his first season been? Well, his 32 passing touchdowns are the fourth-most by a quarterback in his first season with multiple starts, trailing only Patrick Mahomes, Kurt Warner, and Daunte Culpepper. Love had five games with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. This is tied for the second-most all-time for a quarterback in his first 18 starts. Only Mahomes had more (six). According to PlayerProfiler, Love had the sixth-most money throws. He had the 10th-best adjusted yards per attempt, seventh-best air yards per attempt, eighth-most fantasy points per dropback, and finished with the fifth-best PPG among quarterbacks. The dude has been phenomenal.
Packers in Weeks 9-18:
Yards per play: 6 (3rd)
EPA per play: +0.139 (3rd)
TD drive percentage: 27.3% (5th)
Scoring drive percentage: 45.5% (4th)
Successful play rate: 39% (3rd)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 10, 2024
All of Love's brilliance has transformed the Packers into a top-three offense since Week 9. The wild thing... he's doing it with pass-catchers who are all in their first or second season. We haven't even touched on his first playoff start when he shredded the Cowboys defense. Now imagine what they'll do as a team as they continue to get more reps and experience. I'm going to throw out a hot take that shouldn't be a hot take, but Love will be an MVP candidate as early as 2024.
From a fantasy perspective, Love was remarkable. He ended the year as the QB5 with a 19.5 PPG average. He finished with 10 top-12 performances, which includes four top-six weeks. He had just three weeks where he finished lower than QB16. We've already talked about how Love flipped a switch in Week 10. Well, from Weeks 10-17, Love increased his PPG output to 21.2. During the fantasy playoffs, he was even better. From Weeks 15-17, he averaged 23.3 PPG, which was the third-best average among quarterbacks during that time.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
One could argue Purdy broke out last season, but there were still plenty who thought he might be a one-hit wonder. At the very least, few expected his 2022 efficiency to translate and continue into 2023. However, that's exactly what happened. Yes, he has Kyle Shanahan as a coach. Yes, his skilled teammates are Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Does that help? Obviously, but we never saw Jimmy Garoppolo's play reach even remotely close to what Purdy displayed last year and this.
Final regular season quarterback efficiency numbers (EPA per play, min 350 dropbacks)
1) Brock Purdy +0.34
...
2) Dak Prescott +0.25
...
3) Josh Allen +0.20
4) Tua Tagovailoa +0.18
5) Jordan Love +0.16
6) Lamar Jackson +0.15
7) Jalen Hurts +0.14
8) Patrick Mahomes +0.13
9) Baker…— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) January 8, 2024
Purdy finished fourth in completion percentage (69.4%), but that's just part of the story. He finished first in deep ball completion percentage, fourth in pressured completion percentage, second in red zone completion percentage, and fifth in clean pocket completion percentage. That level of marksmanship is amazing. He finished with the fifth-most passing yards despite having just the 20th-most pass attempts. How'd he do that? He was first in adjusted yards per attempt and first in yards per attempt. While many will mention the YAC (yards after contact) his receivers rack up, he still finished eighth in intended air yards per attempt at 8.2.
Among quarterbacks with at least seven starts, Purdy finished as the QB7 with a 19.2 PPG. He had nine top-12 weekly performances. That includes five top-six finishes from Weeks 10-17, a major second-half surge. He did have four weekly finishes worse than QB23 and one of those came in a pivotal Week 16 fantasy playoff matchup when he scored just 6.4. He was quite disappointing in the fantasy playoffs, following up that Week 16 performance with just 17.6 points in Week 17, en route to a QB14 finish. Still, Purdy was a top-five passer across the board in pretty much every single statistic and it all translated to fantasy success, too. From Weeks 10-15, Purdy was the QB3 averaging 23.3 PPG. While some may still try to downplay his performance due to his coach and teammates, we'll be none of the sort here. Purdy deserves recognition for a stellar campaign.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Some may be asking, can a rookie really be a breakout? I believe they can. We all have expectations for rookies. Obviously, the expectations placed on rookie Ja'Marr Chase were much higher than those of Stroud, but Stroud absolutely rose to the occasion and far exceeded anyone's wildest expectations. When anyone drastically and unequivocally surpasses one's expectations, they can be considered a breakout and with that definition, Stroud certainly qualifies as such.
Drafted by the Texans, the expectations for Stroud and Houston were quite low. Stroud entered the season passing to third-year player Nico Collins, a receiver who had just 927 yards through his first two seasons. They also drafted Tank Dell, a third-rounder who is just 165 pounds. No one thought much of these pass-catchers. Houston had a first-time head coach and a first-time offensive coordinator. Stroud paid no mind to all of that. He defied all those odds and had himself a true breakout rookie campaign.
- Eighth-most passing yards (4,108)
- Eighth-most air yards (4,493)
- Fifth-most money throws (24)
- Second-highest adjusted yards per attempt average (8.1)
- Second-highest air yards per attempt (9.0)
- 11th-most fantasy points per dropback (0.52)
- Seventh-highest fantasy points per game (19.3)
- Fifth-best deep ball completion percentage (49.2%)
CJ Stroud finished with the Third HIGHEST Rookie PPG EVER, only trailing…
[ Cam Newton ]
[ Justin Herbert ]
[ Robert Griffin III ]and he did it with a whopping 19.3 Passing PPG
Top 5 Dynasty Asset pic.twitter.com/nEWrC5Skni
— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) January 6, 2024
Much like Love, Stroud also dominated in the first round of the playoffs. Everything about Stroud's first season in the NFL screams superstar. If you were to ask yourself how many quarterbacks you'd take ahead of Stroud, you'd only need your two hands and honestly, you won't need all 10 fingers. As Stroud, Collins, and Dell get more playing time together, this offense is going to be one of the very best in the NFL and it all starts with their already elite signal-caller.
#Texans QB CJ Stroud in his playoff debut:
• 16/21
• 274 yards
• 3 TDs
• 0 INTs
• 157.2 passer rating.Superstar. pic.twitter.com/l9fR7WWR9A
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 14, 2024
Stroud finished as the QB10 on the season with a 18.5 PPG average. He had six top-12 weekly finishes, but that doesn't include two other weeks where he finished as the QB13, right on the cusp of a "QB1" finish. Stroud finished as a top-20 quarterback in 10 out of 14 contests. He missed Weeks 15-16 due to a concussion and returned during the fantasy championship to score just 12.9 points en route to a QB23 finish. Prior to Week 14, which he left early, Stroud was the QB4 averaging 20.2 PPG. The stretch from Weeks 1-13 is more a more accurate representation of the fantasy quarterback he was. He did all of this with a pass-catcher group that many found underwhelming. His offensive line also dealt with constant injuries. In fact, Houston used the same five offensive linemen just 20.2% of their snaps. This was the fourth-lowest in the NFL and Stroud still accomplished what he did.
Honorable Mentions
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What is the parameter for breaking out? It’s all subjective. One could argue Mayfield broke out in 2020, his third year in the NFL, when he threw for 3,563 yards with 26 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. That would be a fair argument. One could also argue that Mayfield didn’t break out this season because he finished as the QB15 in PPG among those who played at least seven games. That would also be a fair argument. That’s why I decided to do an honorable mention section.
Here’s why Mayfield deserves recognition: After his 2021 and especially his 2022 season, Mayfield was completely written off. He started 14 games in 2021 and finished with just 3,010 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. His quarterback rating was 83.1. That would be his final year with Cleveland. He ended up in Carolina with a chance to reboot his once-promising career. Remember, he set a then-rookie season record with 27 touchdowns back in 2018.
He failed miserably in Carolina. He appeared in seven games, started six, and had just 1,313 yards. He threw as many interceptions as touchdowns (six). His completion percentage was 57.8%. His quarterback rating was 74.4. He was actually released and picked up by the Rams. He appeared in five games for them and started four. While he was better in Los Angeles than he was in Carolina, he was far from good. He finished with 850 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. His quarterback rating was just 86.4 with the Rams and it ended at 79.0 for the season. It hadn’t been since 2020, his third season in the NFL, since Mayfield had a quarterback rating over 83.5.
He ended up signing in Tampa Bay, but there wasn’t much optimism. His offensive coordinator, Dave Canales, had been the quarterback coach in Seattle who helped revitalize Geno Smith’s career. Tampa Bay also had two great receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Mayfield had a chance and to his credit, he made the most of it.
He ended up setting career highs in completion percentage, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. He finished with 4,044 yards, his first season going over 3,850 yards. He also had 28 touchdowns with just 10 interceptions. His 1.8% interception rate was tied for the 10th-lowest in the league. He also was tied for the fifth-highest intended air yards per attempt at 8.5. He finished with the ninth-most passing yards and seventh-most passing touchdowns.
He’s not much of a runner, but he managed to finish as the QB15 in PPG among those who started at least seven games. Considering where he was drafted, it was a significant return on investment. He finished with eight top-12 weeks, a ninth where he was QB13, and a 10th where he was QB14. During the fantasy playoffs, Weeks 15-17, Mayfield was the QB5 while averaging 22.4 PPG, which was better than Josh Allen, Justin Fields, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and C.J. Stroud.
On top of all of that, he was lights out in the first round of the playoffs against the Philadelphia Eagles. He led Tampa Bay to a commanding 32-9 victory over last year’s NFC Champions. He finished with 337 passing yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, and an impressive 119.8 quarterback rating. Maybe he already broke out and maybe his QB15 PPG finish isn’t good enough to be classified as a breakout, but he deserves recognition for the season he’s had, and to his credit, it's not over yet.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Can you be considered a breakout when you essentially only played two games? It’s a fair question and the answer is going to be no. It has to be or else these lists would be incredibly long. Richardson played two full games in 2023 and appeared in two others, but finished with just a 33% snap count in both. Despite all of that, Richardson should get credit for what he did in that limited amount of time and also because he’s going to be the poster boy for this article next season.
In the two full games he played, he scored 21.9 and 29.6 fantasy points. In one of the games where he played just 33% of the snaps, he still managed to score 17.7 points. His PPG average in his two full games was 25.7. This would’ve finished first among all quarterbacks. Even if we use all four of his games, he still would’ve finished as the QB14, averaging 18.4 per game. Remember, that’s with him playing 40 out of 121 snaps in two contests he left injured in.
When he came into the NFL, everyone recognized his insane athletic gifts. He scored a 10.0 on the RAS (relative athletic score) and was going to be a game-changer from day one using his feet. He was exactly that. In what essentially amounted to just over two and a half games, Richardson finished with 25 carries, 136 rushing yards, and four touchdowns. Extrapolating those stats across 17 games would result in 170 carries and 925 yards. We’ll ignore the touchdowns since he clearly wouldn’t score 27 rushing touchdowns...or will he?
The biggest glaring weakness in his game was his passing ability, specifically, can he do it consistently? In Week 1, he finished with 24 completions, 37 attempts, 223 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He had a 64.9% completion percentage and a 79.0 quarterback rating. It wasn’t great, but the completion percentage was encouraging. In his other complete start, he completed 11 of 25 passes (just a 44.0% completion percentage) but also had 200 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
He finished the season with a 59.5% completion percentage, 577 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Extrapolating these stats against two and a half games played would result in 3,924 yards, 20 touchdowns, and seven interceptions across 17 games.
The small sample makes judging his 2023 performance difficult. Extrapolating stats off of two-and-a-half games certainly has plenty of disadvantages and negatives. However, Richardson was exactly who we thought he’d be as a runner and looked to be much further along passing the ball than I expected. Give him another offseason with Shane Steichen and he could have a special 2024 season.
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