RADIO
Last week was one of my favorite golf tournaments of my life! The parallels between Bryson DeChambeau and Payne Stewart were just far too similar to not get caught up in the hype of it all. A week and a Sunday I will never forget!
Having a signature event the week after a major just seems like a bit of a, "doing it because mom told me to" type situation. I hope that does not continue on the schedule next year as we have no idea which golfers have checked out (Rory) and who are still fired up to chase greatness.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights $10 x2
We are betting $10 on our outrights and $10 on their respective placements. "Most of these numbers are across the market" is no longer true since the McIlroy withdrawal, unfortunately.
Collin Morikawa $5.09 x2 +1600 @ BetRivers (6 places each way)
Despite having struggle around TPC River Highlands in the past, the Collin Morikawa strutting down the middle of the fairways with his third-ranked strokes gained on courses shorter than 7,200 yards. After getting off to a slow start this year, Morikawa is back to his old coach and his long irons are starting to move in the right direction, but that is not even that much of a concern for us this week as the majority of the approach shots will be coming inside 175 yards this week, with Collin hitting the most good shots from 100-150 yards.
The reason Collin has also struggled here in the past is because of his short game, losing strokes putting and around these greens. But that has changed this year, with Collin gaining the eighth-most strokes around and ranking inside the top 20 in short game. With the chipping chimpanzee now off his back, we can expect him to fire those wedges even more aggressively at these pin locations that will be fighting a losing battle trying to prevent these professionals from getting close to -20 under par again this week, with Collin also finding himself towards the top of the heap on easy courses.
The each-way market was really appealing to us this week, too, as Collin's last four starts have been T14, 2nd, 4th, and T4 at the PGA Championship. If he faulters down the stretch again (hopefully not) we can still benefit off of his upside that he has been flashing lately, gaining in all four areas of the game in *every tournament dating back to the Masters. *He did lose on approach at the RBC Heritage and fractionally putting at the PGA Championship. It's time for Collin's talent and form to break through in a signature event this week!
Sam Burns $2.33 x2 +3500 @ BetRivers (6 places each way)
We faded Sam Burns at the US Open last week because his best major finish was a T20, which, for a five-time PGA Tour winner is rather disappointing. BUT, after opening his first six holes +5 (like we expected) he then played the remaining 66 holes five under par, to notch his best finish since the WMPO and more importantly, his first top 10 in a major! His confidence should be sky high this week after a really impressive major performance, by his standards.
Entering the week with the seventh-best strokes gained in 2024, Burns also sits inside the top-20 for strokes gained, proximity and good shot rates from 100-150 yards, where he has thrived from in his career relative to the longer irons. Put a wedge in Burns' hands and watch him make birdies in bunches when that putter of his starts to really fire up like we saw last week at Pinehurst. Let's inflict some 1st degree Burns to the rest of the field, shall we Sam?
Keegan Bradley $2.04 x2 +4000 @ BetRivers (6 places each way)
The defending champ returns back to his beloved Northeast portion of the country, where he also had a T7 in the 2022 US Open at the Country Club in Brookline. We jumped on Keegan for the Charles Schwab after he absolutely demolished Valhalla off the tee, doing so again around Colonial Country Club on route to ... a T2 after a possessed Davis Riley beat Keegan and World No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, by FIVE strokes.
The driver has gone off the boil a touch the last two events, but if it bounces back this week on a course he has found immense comfort on, his putter should also be ready to spike on these like it did last year and when he finished T2 here in 2019, back when Keegan was still a bad putter (pre aimpoint). His last three starts at this venue have seen him gain 5+ strokes on approach each week, and with the Ryder Cup starting to inch closer and closer on the calendar, there is no better spot for bad Bradley to add some signature points alongside his name.
Matthieu Pavon $0.54 x2 +15000 @ BetRivers (6 places each way)
At 150-1, we are likely getting a guy priced to reflect the T49 that is his best finish since the Masters, prior to his solo fifth at last week's US Open. We know this guy can hang tough when in contention after he won the Farmers Insurance earlier this year and then finishing third at Pebble Beach the following week. He never won the US Open, but his performance eclipsed his prior best major finish of T12 at Augusta earlier this year.
This kind of venue should also suit his skill profile, with accuracy off the tee and a putter that kept him chomping at the heels of Rory and Bryson all week. Pavon is also elite at hitting good shots out the rough from under 150 yards (99th percentile), which he showed us on that approach shot on the 72nd hole at Torrey Pines. With narrow fairways this week, this will be his secret weapon and if that French flat stick can continue to roll in putts, watch out!
Placings ($75)
- Scheffler Top 5 -130 $22
- Xander Top 10 -140 $23
- Hoge Top 20 +187 $10
- Ludvig Aberg Top 5 +220 $20
Matchups ($10)
LAST WEEK: -$10 _ Sepp Straka +100 OVER Sam Burns (DraftKings)
Nothing this week.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
We have been close. It's time!
Below is the weekly podcast I do with Spencer Aguiar (my amazing RotoBaller colleague) and a guest each week. This week, we had Keith Stewart, PGA, on the show, who has SO much golfing knowledge! Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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