RADIO
Jake Knapp, you are a beautiful, mullet-wearing wonder! It is becoming apparent that we have a type over here at Breaking $100, as we hit Cam Smith three times in 2022, and now Jake Knapp's mullet and Original Penguin shirt make it our fourth winner of that hair and clothing combo. We have also now hit the last two winners in Mexico, making this a week of overlapping coincidences of epic proportions, which we are completely cool with. You have to play to your strengths, and Mexican mullets appear to be ours.
The Cognizant (Honda) Classic is always a special week for me, as it marks the start of my third year of writing for RotoBaller, with my very first Breaking $100 piece debuting at the Honda in 2022. Funny how the world works, as Daniel Berger was our guy that week, losing a five-shot lead on Sunday, which Jake Knapp almost did last week, too, barely hanging on to a four-shot lead. For those of you who have been supporting this article over the last two years ... THANK YOU! Your constant corneas on my work really means a lot to me and I appreciate you more than you know! We have been through some stuff over the years, haven't we?
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Recap of Last Week
Before we get a little too excited about last week, in my excitement of the win, I forgot to include the -$20.50 that we lost with in-tournament matchups, which was not ideal. But, we now have extended our win streak to four weeks, having profited about $150 in that time, profiting $46.66 in Mexico. We recently reduced our investment in the outright market, and hitting a winner only returned us $57.77. In order for us to get to $100 of profit, we would have to increase our exposure to 20% of our budget, which I am not comfortable with at all.
I am fully aware that my strengths in the betting market lie in the blue-collar bets, where we have had some great success betting placements and matchups. Keeping our outright exposure to $10 of $100 is how we will continue to operate until we see consistent returns in that market. I like to try providing betting philosophies and guidance in this piece along with the bets themselves, as I want those of you who are interested in placing your own bets, to become a more skilled bettor through reading this article.
Outrights ($10)
The outright market is becoming like a battle royal throughout the course of a Monday, with crowd favorites getting tossed out of the ring before the sun has graced the West Coast with its warm and gracious beams of vitamin D. It is becoming more and more important to have your research done before the week begins so that you can pounce on any numbers before the likes of Byeong Hun An are hammered from 45 all the way down to 30 in the space of a few hours. I do a Sunday Night Research Stream at 10ET, where I deep dive into the most likely winners for the upcoming week. After the show ends, I add time stamps for each golfer that was covered so you can use it as a research tool if listening to me for 3.5 hours is not your cup of tea (I commend those of you who do... LoL)
If you are interested in getting these picks as I make them on Mondays, jump into our premium discord, where you will have access to my early bets if you use code MANIAC to save yourself 10%. You will also have access to Spencer's picks as he makes them, too, along with EVERYTHING else Spence and our "double cup of Joes" have to offer to RotoBaller subscribers!
This week, we are going back to our "engage eight blitz" of the odds board, hoping for one of our octet of options to make it to the Cognizant quarterback and grab us a sack full of money while doing so! The odds board currently only has Rory as the only golfer shorter than 20-1, with his opening 7-1 number now drifting to 8-1 as the golf bettors around the globe hammered that 30-70 range this week. Let's send the dawgs and go back-to-back at a venue that owes us a winner ... coughbergercough ...
Tom Kim $2.29 (30-1 FanDuel)
We mentioned that we had great success with Mexican mullets in the outright market. Well, we have been on Tom "The Tank" Kim for two of the three wins he has enjoyed in just 18 months on the PGA Tour. He has won the Shriners twice and burst onto the scene, winning the Wyndham Championship after making an eight on his opening hole. We are jumping back onto the Tom Kim Express this week as we think he has a little magic to offer around the watery fairways and greens of PGA National.
The historical correlations at this venue point to exceptional iron play from 125-200, a tidy touch around the Bermuda greens, and a putter that can salvage pars and the rare birdie. Kim has won on shorter tracks where an emphasis on accuracy off the tee (8th) and confident iron play (6th) allowed his putter to shine sporadically, as he is not the most consistent putter. Kim also ranks 20th and 16th in poor shot avoidance from 100-150 and 150-200, which should, in theory, see him avoiding the watery hazards on 15 of the 18 holes here. If he finds his groove early, he should have the skills needed to contend over the weekend.
Byeong Hun An $1.78 at 40-1 (FanDuel)
The general consensus around the golf betting industry is that course history at this venue can be tossed out the window due to the volatile nature of this Florida course. I do think, however, that there are golfers who have thrived around here, with Benny An being one of them, finishing T21, MC, T4, T36, and T5 in his five appearances since 2018. His worst two showings were courtesy of a putter losing roughly -1.5 strokes per round. An has gained putting in eight of his last 11 events with his Nimbus 2000 putter providing consistency on the greens that allows his tee-to-green game to shine as bright as his platypus patronus, hoping to finally capitalize on his ability to finish inside the top-5 four times in those last 11 starts.
Daniel Berger +5000 $1.39 (BetRivers)
He has only played 11 events since we wrote Daniel Berger up in our maiden Breaking $100 article in 2022. Berger's ball striking has returned to form in 2024, with his short game being the only area of his game yet to bounce back to the standards we expected from him before he got hurt. As a result, he is slapped with a 50-1 price tag this week that is triple the 16-1 we bet him two years ago. I will leave you with his write-up from 2022, which should give you a decent idea of what we can expect from him here if the magic returns to his game.
"Daniel Berger will be teeing it up as the number one ranked golfer in my model. Daniel withdrew from Pebble with an injury, which we assume has since healed up completely (little did we know...). From a statistical perspective, he might as well have been manufactured in a lab looking to make Honda Classic winners. His number one ranking is a product of an approach game that has even the bravest of flagsticks shivering every time Berger stands over a golf ball. He enters the week with the best long-term SG: APP and Prox 125-200 numbers while sitting in third for SG: APP over the last 24 rounds (L24). It is always comforting to bet on someone who has an overlap of impressive long-term and short-term key stats.
Berger's sizzling iron play alone would be enough to entice me toward his rather stingy outright number, but we haven't even looked at the rest of his game yet. Daniel ranks second in ball striking (OTT + APP). A beautiful byproduct of this ball-striking is his bogey avoidance, eclipsing the entire field in yet another statistical category. However, Berger's putter has a tendency to abandon him, losing over half a stroke per round, putting in two of his last three starts. Not everything about his putter is doom and gloom, as he has gained over a stroke per round on the greens at PGA National in his last two starts (T4 and T36). If Berger can replicate his putting history here, he has all the assets to take down The Honda Classic."
Matthieu Pavon +5000 $1.37 (BetRivers)
It seems like regression looms imminent for the fiery Frenchman, but I have news for you ... he has been playing at this level for quite some time now. Matthieu Pavon has had three top-7 finishes in his four PGA starts since gaining his card via the DPWT, where he fearlessly fired off five top-15 finishes in his final seven starts across the pond. One of those starts was a win at the Acciona Open de Espana, chipping and putting his way to victory.
The FedEx Cup points leader has continued to putt well since touching down on US soil while gaining an average of +2.55 strokes on approach at Pebble Beach, backing up the +7.24 he gained in his win at the Farmers Insurance Open the week before. His accuracy off the tee is usually slightly above average, which will come in handy here. For somebody in this kind of form, 50-1 is simply a number that I could not refuse for a golfer playing with immense confidence, having won two tournaments since October. Viva Le France!
*Since asterisks are cool now, we bet this at BetRivers each way with six places (aka a top-6 at 10-1 odds). If you have not placed this bet yet, there are 11-1 odds that pay ties in full out there, as well as 60-1 outright odds at FD and Caesars.
Tom Hoge +6600 $1.04 (BetRivers)
Since this article has taken on a Harry Potter theme, lets engulf ourselves in the magical world of Tom Hoge's iron play. He has been waving those steel wands of his better than all but one golfer in this field, averaging +1.3 strokes on approach in the last two dozen rounds with finishes of 8th, T17, T6, T56, T17 in his most recent tri-wizard tournaments. Simply put, he has been hitting his irons and putts at a Dumbledore-like level. However, the riddle of Tom remains firmly locked up in the Palm Beach Chamber of Secrets, having lost strokes on approach in his last four starts here that ended in four missed cuts from 2018 to 2021.
Despite Tom turning into a shriveling Peter Pettigrew at PGA National, maybe the three years he has spent away hunting down wins at Pebble Beach (2022) and comp course records at TPC Sawgrass last year, it is safe to say he has destroyed a few Horcruxes that once had the Bear Trap unbeatable. AT 66-1, we are going to hope that we get PLAYERS-Championship Tom, who, theoretically, has what it takes to break through at this course with the ease of those sprinting into "platform 9 and 3/4s," hoping that we don't run face first into a pile of bricks.
Andrew Novak +22000 $0.31 (FanDuel)
We are hoping that we can potentially catch lightning in a bottle with Andrew Novak, who has back-to-back finishes of T8 while gaining roughly five strokes on approach in three of his last five starts. His short game has been stellar in 2024 so far, with his putter jinxing his chances of a win in Mexico last week. Prior to this recent flurry of form, Novak has been rocking an invisibility cloak for the last 8 months. Maybe we get a little Novak Black magic in Florida, and we walk away with a 220-1 winner!
C.T. Pan +30000 $0.23 (FanDuel)
We are going to call C.T. Pan, "C.T. Cauldron" for the sake of this piece and concoct a recipe to win the Cognizant Classic.
The Cognizant Concoction
- Stir in an essence of T3 from last week's Mexico Open
- Crush a T16 from the 2022 Honda Classic
- Finely chop up T3 from the 2021 Honda Classic and carefully add one piece at a time, stirring vigorously.
- Crack a Sanderson Farms egg in a bowl.
- Whisk T3 and 4th from Canadian Open and Byron Nelson into the bowl with egg and add to the cauldron
- Let simmer for four rounds
***WARNING: If ANY of these instructions are not adhered to with immense accuracy, the potion can inflict painful cuts (missed) and severe symptoms of inexplicable withdrawals.
Placings ($70)
This is a really volatile golf course that can dismantle even the most reliable of golfers on any given day, and as a result, we are going extremely volume-heavy, with most bets longer than +200. We have 15 placement bets that range from -105 to +2200 for top-5s through top-40s. Each bet will return $11.11 if it wins, only needing about 5 of the bets to hit in order to break even here.
All of these bets are at Bet365 with the exception of Byeong Hun An T5, who we decided to bet at DraftKings to get better odds that meet our threshold to expose ourselves to dead heat reductions if he were to tie. My rule of thumb is to take the ties paid in full odds and multiply the first two digits by 3. If that ends up being a smaller number than the odds with dead heats, then go ahead and bet the better number, knowing that you have value baked into that decision. For example, +500 ties paid in full odds --> 50 X 3 = 150 ... 500 +150 = 650, which is what we bet An at.
Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based on the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously, we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10. Or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10 but always find themselves in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet.
The yellow columns are the dollars lost or won in the last 12 months, and the green column is the rate at which a golfer finishes in each respective position tier.
Matchups ($15)
Byeong Hun An over Min Woo Lee -137 @BetRivers: Ben An has had an exceptional course history here, and his skill set fits the course, too. The same cannot be said about Min Woo Lee, who is one of the worst iron players in the field, at a course with tons of water around the greens. We love An and are also picking on Lee to return $10.95
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball Parlay $5 to win $96.48 (FanDuel)
DraftKings won't let me parlay 3-balls anymore. It's lame! But we have a beauty cooked up over at FanDuel for round 1.
Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article as well as a deep dive into the 28 KFT/DPWT golfers playing the Cognizant. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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