RADIO
Rory McIlroy hit one of the most memorable two-irons of the year on the final hole of regulation to make birdie and win the Scottish Open in regulation. We had hopes and dreams of a Scottie Scottish Open victory last week, but his putter seems to be anchoring a rampant run of tee-to-green play as impressive as Rory's 2-iron, falling just shy of victory, seemingly every week. Well, you know the saying, if you can't beat them, join them.
The Open Championship is one of the most traditional and aesthetically pleasing majors on the calendar, as the world's best are forced put away the Trackman radars and swap them out for some paint brushes and canvas boards. Links golf demands an abundance of creativity, patience, artistry and necessary knowledge of the golf course's nuances in order to be crowned Champion Golfer of the Year. We have a strong feeling about who that may be this year and can't wait to share with you why.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights ($20)
We felt cheeky after the Sepp outright and went to Scottie in search of back-to-back winners, and weirdly enough, despite finishing T3 he never seemed to ever have a chance of winning. This week we are going to jump across enemy lines and shoot that single bullet from the side that stole our salvation last week.
Rory McIlroy ($15 @ +750 on BetRivers ... +1100 on DK if you use the +300 boost promo)
In 2014 a chipper Rory McIlroy became the Champion Golfer of the Year at Royal Liverpool Golf Club. The year is 2023 and he has not won another major since winning the PGA Championship the same year as the Claret Jug 9 years ago. A player of McIlroy's talent and tenacity should never go a decade without a major win while playing through the prime of his prolific career. If he fails to win this week, next year will be the 10th that he tries to recapture that feeling of invincibility when you hoist one of the four biggest trophies in golf. In my opinion, I think that happens this week and here is why.
Having just come off a win at the Scottish Open and after hitting a scorching 2-iron that could cook a pack of bacon in a blizzard, his confidence is oozing out his wavy, silvering hair. Wavy, silvering hair that may be a little more OG Black had he not put the PGA Tour's existence on his back for the last while. That battle is now behind him, and all his weapons are pointed at the other 155 potential Champion Golfers of the Year. With his talent level and focus now solely on winning another Open Championship at Royal Liverpool, his chance to end his major misery has never been greater.
McIlroy is one of the most ferocious drivers of the golf ball and his 5 foot 9 frame leads the tour in driving distance, by some margin. With pot bunkers guarding the edges of fairways, forcing lay ups or risking a full shot penalty in the form of a lob wedge pitchout, these bunkers are going to be a problem for most golfers in the field. Most is not all, and Rory may just have the distance to widen these fairways but launching his drives over these pot bunkers on holes that allow it. The ability to avoid the risk of these coffin-like sand traps by simply leaning on carry distance vs accuracy, plays a MASSIVE role in why I believe he is going to find success this week, as seen by him carrying it 290 over the bunker >into the wind< in the tweet below.
In his last 12 rounds that include the US Open, McIlroy has gained 31 strokes ball striking which is half a stroke more than Scheffler, who played the same three events and is in the midst of a historic ball-striking season. The difference between the two of them is that Rory is also capable of getting hot with the putter once or twice a tournament. We get a focused and fueled Rory, who cancelled media obligations this week after his win, heading back to a golf course he won at the last time they played here, while ball striking it better than Scottie over the last dozen rounds and gaining half a stroke putting in his last 24 rounds. The stars above Liverpool are once again aligning to shine brightly upon the earthly star that is Rory. McIlroy!
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($35)
Recap of Last Week (+$16)
Not only did Scottie break our hearts last week, but Eric Cole (T20 +490) was sitting in T5 with a Sunday round to play and landed up shooting +9 to end the tournament in a tie for 60th. Holy ejection! Harry also decided to join the ejection party and shoot +8 in R4 to end up 60th as well. So much profit was lost in those Scottish Sunday winds, as Wyndham Clark finished a shot out of T20. Despite all these disasters, we still managed to get Tyrrell T20 +100, Griffin T40 +275 and Conners T20 +240 across the line to profit $16 on the week, just about covering our outright card.
This Week's Placements
We are going to be spending a full $80 on the below card as the matchup market is being a little devious this week. More on that below.
- Brooks Koepka $16 T20 -110
- Xander Schauffele $12.50 T20 +105
- Wyndham Clark $14 T40 -135
- Denny McCarthy $12.50 T40 +115
- Adam Schenk $12.50 T40 +200
- Gary Woodland $12.50 T40 +130
Matchups ($0)
Matchups are my favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets as you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut.
Recap Last Week (2-1-0)+$8.62
Shane Lowry gained just shy of 12 strokes in the short game department last week to beat Wyndham Clark by 2. Lowry has only gained 4 or more shortgame one other time in 18 starts. The bad side of variance got us there. However, Tyrell took care of Fitz and Harman dominated Detry to salvage the matchup week and exceed the amount we bet on outrights if we combined placements and matchups. That is the ideal way to bet on golf, in my opinion.
This Week's Matchups
In a week that we have LIV golfers showing back up to the final major of the year, the books are playing scared, with the majority of their bets pegging a PGA Tour member against a LIV golfer. With such limited data on LIV the model has no way of determig if there really is an edge in those matchups and the books are simply taking money on both sides and just squeezing the juice out of the average golf bettor who opened his betting app for the first time since the US Open. We will not fall victim to this ploy.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Cameron Smith $5 +450 Top 5
We hit Smith as an outright here last year, but throughout the week his numbers were no better than 18-1, which for somebody who drives it as poorly as he does on this course, was not something we fancied. As of Wednesday morning there is a 22-1 for him to win, but we are going to bet him top-5 at +450 with our farewell fiver, which ironically, may be a welcome back to the PGA Tour fiver, with hopes that LIV and the PGA merge in the not so distant future. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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