The Bigger Picture - Late-Age Breakouts Taking Center Stage

3 years ago by Pierre Camus

What Appears In This Article? hide

2. Is There a Breakout Age in MLB?

3. This Year's Breakouts

4. 2021 wRC+ Leaders, Age 28+

5. 2019 wRC+ Leaders, Age 28+

6. 2018 wRC+ Leaders, Age 28+

7. Conclusion

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9. More Fantasy Baseball Advice

As astute fantasy managers, we are always scouting the next player ready to break out as he approaches his prime. Some phenoms like Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Rafael Devers don't bother waiting until they are of legal drinking age before they announce their arrival as a Major League star but they are clearly exceptions. A baseball player is considered to be prime age around 27. After that, it logically follows that a player would be past their prime once they are in their upper 20s. As someone who is slightly (well) past his prime, I take offense to that.

Each year, a couple of players of "advanced age" emerge to become fantasy studs without warning. Call it the Bautista effect. We even have an annual article identifying late bloomers with the threshold being age 26 or later! Last year, it was Luke Voit taking a leap into stardom, the prior year it was Mike Yastrzemski and before them, it was Max Muncy, who at age 30 keeps raking and showing it was no fluke. Who is this year's late breakout? Turns out we have more candidates than usual.

Players like Yermin Mercedes and Adolis Garcia are looking like All-Stars despite the fact they were on nobody's radar before the season began. Jared Walsh is following in Voit's footsteps by carrying his second-half hot streak into the next season and establishing himself as a bonafide stud. Just as we are inexplicably (*cough dead ball cough) inundated with no-hitters, could we suddenly be looking at multiple late-age breakouts in one season and why?

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Probable Cause

No Minor League Season

The lack of a minor-league season in 2020 and the late start in 2021 took away the chance for many young players to take the field against high-level competition for over a year. Players who may have been afforded a year of development in the minors didn't get that opportunity. Rest assured, that won't do much to affect the Wander Franco types because they will debut when they are deemed ready (and the club is prepared to punch that service time clock). But it pushed back the start time for fringier prospects who didn't get the chance to join the alternate site.

Alternate Site Training

The decision to create alternate sites last year eliminated unnecessary travel and made it easier for clubs to make roster moves for COVID or injury-related reasons. The unique circumstances of 2020, with an overwhelming number of IL stints per week, also allowed many prospects to sample the bigs when they normally wouldn't have. Teams played it safer with their high-end prospects, not wanting to rush them or risk injury for a shortened season. Instead, they opted to play second-tier prospects.

Seattle is the perfect example. I was one of many who bought into the front-office speak when they said they wanted to give youngsters like Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez a chance to show what they can do and then added them to the alternate site before the 2020 season began. Throw Logan Gilbert into that mix too. These are all young players with a path to playing time in a short season but were held back. Not that the Mariners would do something like that just to manipulate service time.

Slugging Is Forever

The common thread between nearly every late-age breakout player discussed so far is power. Speed isn't a tool that improves with age. Contact rate rarely gets better as you get older. Power can be developed over time, though, as can plate discipline. A batter who relies mostly on the long ball has a far better chance of making an impact later in his career.

Among the current-season slugging leaders (min. 30 PA), 17 of the top 25 are at least 27 years old and six of them are 30 or older.

Name	Team	Age	HR	RBI	ISO	SLG
Byron Buxton	MIN	27	9	17	.402	.772
Ji-Man Choi	TBR	30	2	8	.310	.655
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	22	16	41	.337	.674
J.D. Davis	NYM	28	2	7	.220	.610
Rob Refsnyder	MIN	30	2	7	.257	.657
Nick Castellanos	CIN	29	12	30	.308	.663
Mike Trout	LAA	29	8	18	.291	.624
Jesse Winker	CIN	27	13	28	.317	.665
Edmundo Sosa	STL	25	0	3	.125	.500
Carson Kelly	ARI	26	6	19	.250	.568
Buster Posey	SFG	34	9	18	.270	.609
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SDP	22	13	28	.387	.681
Max Muncy	LAD	30	10	26	.245	.530
Kris Bryant	CHC	29	10	30	.274	.591
Xander Bogaerts	BOS	28	10	31	.249	.588
Aaron Judge	NYY	29	12	26	.258	.566
Ronald Acuna Jr.	ATL	23	15	32	.333	.612
Andy Young	ARI	27	4	9	.394	.606
Jared Walsh	LAA	27	11	37	.262	.583
J.D. Martinez	BOS	33	12	37	.253	.571
Jake Marisnick	CHC	30	4	14	.358	.623
Austin Riley	ATL	24	10	22	.238	.550
Shohei Ohtani	LAA	26	15	38	.356	.626
Rafael Devers	BOS	24	14	43	.324	.602
Adolis Garcia	TEX	28	16	41	.331	.619

FWIW, upping the minimum to PA to filter only qualified batters changes a few names but not the end results - still 17 hitters age 27 or older appear on the leaderboard and seven of those are 30+.

What better way is there to break out than with a home run barrage? It helps all the roto stats at once, other than steals, and captures media attention. The older a prospect is before debuting, the more we should focus on his power tool.

Is There a Breakout Age in MLB?

When discussing NFL prospects, you'll often hear people refer to breakout age as a definable metric. PlayerProfiler.com is the best current source for this data and defines it as "the age when a receiver first achieved a 20+% Dominator Rating." Dominator Rating obviously being "the percentage of a wide receiver's total team receiving yards and touchdowns in college."

It's not an exact science, like anything sports-related. A.J. Brown -- wide receiver for the Tennessee Titans for those who don't follow football -- had a breakout age in the 57th percentile. This year, he's becoming a consensus top-five WR. Michael Thomas of the Saints, who was last year's consensus top WR had a breakout age in the 25th percentile. On the other hand, DeAndre Hopkins' breakout age ranks in the 99th percentile, so that proved to be spot on.

The big difference between football and baseball is that pretty much every pro football player goes through the NCAA system whereas baseball players can sign out of college, high school, overseas, or whatever secret lab Shohei Ohtani was created in. They can't be measured equally because player development varies so widely.

Every player develops along a different trajectory. Rather than age, scouts and fantasy nerds like me look to advanced metrics to track improvement. For a pitcher, it may be average velocity or swinging-strike rate. For a hitter, it may be BB-K% or hard-hit rate. That said, we know that MLB players are typically most productive between the ages of 25-27, although that gap is also widening as younger players are increasingly making an impact and more players are able to defy Father Time through advanced training.

This Year's Breakouts

It will never stop sounding odd to me that a 27-year-old is considered a late breakout but as they say, perception is reality.

Let's get to it. Who is experiencing the "Cocoon" effect in 2021?

If we filter the top-15 hitters by age 28 and above in order by weight runs created plus (wRC+), we see some very familiar names as expected. But this season has provided more late-bloomers than usual. I've chosen to leave out the ageless Nelson Cruz on all these lists because he's an outlier in a whole different way that is unearthly.

2021 wRC+ Leaders, Age 28+

Name	Team	Age	PA	AVG	OPS	HardHit%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Castellanos	CIN	29	184	.359	1.089	49.6%	191	2.8
Mike Trout	LAA	29	146	.333	1.090	52.6%	197	2.4
Buster Posey	SFG	34	126	.351	1.059	47.8%	191	2
Max Muncy	LAD	30	194	.286	.996	40.4%	176	2.5
Xander Bogaerts	BOS	28	193	.343	.993	42.3%	170	2.6
Kris Bryant	CHC	29	185	.308	.991	40.5%	168	2.3
Aaron Judge	NYY	29	186	.308	.975	59.5%	172	1.8
J.D. Martinez	BOS	33	202	.320	.975	46.7%	164	1.8
Jake Marisnick	CHC	30	60	.264	.973	41.2%	160	0.5
Adolis Garcia	TEX	28	165	.290	.940	51.8%	157	1.9
Yermin Mercedes	CHW	28	168	.344	.912	30.7%	156	1.1
Chris Taylor	LAD	30	175	.285	.898	39.2%	153	1.7
Brad Miller	PHI	31	96	.318	.909	56.1%	149	0.8
Starling Marte	MIA	32	70	.310	.897	46.7%	154	1
Joey Wendle	TBR	31	163	.311	.915	36.8%	156	1.9

Buster Posey and J.D. Martinez are experiencing a resurgence but they have been fantasy studs for years. The names that pop off the screen are Garcia and Mercedes.

Garcia had shown massive power in the minors, jacking 32 homers at Triple-A in 2019 but he didn't break through the Cardinals' system because of a 30.1% K% and subpar defense. In Texas, admittedly not a contender this year, he has been able to carve out a place in the lineup and thrive.

Mercedes is less reliant on the long ball but also a liability on defense which is why he's played every game at DH this season. If not for a season-ending injury to Eloy Jimenez in spring training, we might never have known his name.

Brad Miller doesn't really count as a breakout because he had a mammoth 2016 with the Rays, hitting 30 HR with 81 RBI before falling out of the picture the last couple of years. Plus, he's hitting .319 now but this is a career .243 hitter sporting an insane .436 BABIP in late May. Cliff ahead.

Finally, although he is sliding down the slugging leaderboard, we have to mention Tyler Naquin after his scorching start. He's cooled down considerably, mainly because the Reds haven't played Pittsburgh lately.

Oh ya know, just a casual 7 RBI night for Tyler Naquin. pic.twitter.com/82tFsV4GNG

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) April 7, 2021

At age 30, after years as a fourth outfielder in Cleveland, he's taking advantage of his new park which plays friendliest to home runs in terms of Park Factor, if you believe in that sort of thing.

That's a handful of hitters making a name for themselves later than expected. It feels like a lot but is it really more than before?

I'll omit 2020 due to a small sample, as it would be hard to qualify anyone as a true breakout over 60 games.

2019 wRC+ Leaders, Age 28+

Looking at 2019, we have Mich Garver and arguably Mark Canha to some extent but that's it. Every other player had been fantasy-relevant at least once prior.

Name	Team	Age	G	PA	AVG	OPS	HardHit%	wRC+	WAR
Anthony Rendon	WSN	29	146	646	.319	1.010	45.9%	154	7
Mitch Garver	MIN	28	93	359	.273	.995	50.0%	155	3.9
George Springer	HOU	29	122	556	.292	.974	43.2%	157	6.5
Howie Kendrick	WSN	35	121	370	.344	.966	47.6%	146	3
Nolan Arenado	COL	28	155	662	.315	.962	37.6%	129	6
Anthony Rizzo	CHC	29	146	613	.293	.924	36.8%	142	4
Charlie Blackmon	COL	32	140	634	.314	.940	40.3%	126	2
Freddie Freeman	ATL	29	158	692	.295	.938	41.9%	138	4
J.D. Martinez	BOS	31	146	657	.304	.939	46.3%	139	3.2
Mark Canha	OAK	30	126	497	.273	.913	40.7%	147	4.1
Carlos Santana	CLE	33	158	686	.281	.911	44.8%	136	4.5
Josh Donaldson	ATL	33	155	659	.259	.900	50.3%	132	4.9
Hunter Pence	TEX	36	83	316	.297	.910	42.0%	128	1.8
DJ LeMahieu	NYY	30	145	655	.327	.893	47.6%	135	5.3
Jose Altuve	HOU	29	124	548	.298	.903	33.6%	139	3.6

2018 wRC+ Leaders, Age 28+

J.D. Martinez	BOS	30	150	649	.330	1.031	52.3%	170	5.9
Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	30	158	690	.290	.922	43.7%	145	5.2
Anthony Rendon	WSN	28	136	597	.308	.909	44.2%	140	6.2
Matt Carpenter	STL	32	156	677	.257	.897	44.5%	140	5
Freddie Freeman	ATL	28	162	707	.309	.892	39.8%	137	5.2
Khris Davis	OAK	30	151	654	.247	.874	47.5%	136	2.7
Jesus Aguilar	MIL	28	149	566	.274	.890	42.6%	135	3.1
Jose Altuve	HOU	28	137	599	.316	.837	33.8%	135	4.9
Joey Votto	CIN	34	145	623	.284	.837	34.8%	130	3.5
David Peralta	ARI	30	146	614	.293	.868	45.7%	130	3.9
Tommy Pham	TBR	30	137	570	.275	.830	49.6%	130	4.1
Aaron Hicks	NYY	28	137	581	.248	.833	42.7%	129	5
Giancarlo Stanton	NYY	28	158	705	.266	.852	50.5%	128	4.3
Jose Martinez	STL	29	152	590	.305	.821	44.1%	127	2.4
Anthony Rizzo	CHC	28	153	665	.283	.846	40.0%	126	2.9
Scooter Gennett	CIN	28	154	638	.310	.847	31.9%	125	4.5

We have Aguilar coming up huge after age 27 and David Peralta stepping onto the scene but not a ton of new faces here.

In 2017, Jose Martinez was the poster boy for late-age breakouts and Scooter Gennett also made a splash, going deep 27 times before carrying on his success for one more glorious season. They raked again in 2018 but fell off shortly after.

Generally, we see about two hitters perform unexpectedly well after turning 27 in a given season. It's not as if 2021 has had an explosion of geriatric sluggers but the unusual circumstances surround the past year and a half do seem to have paved the way for more than the norm.

Conclusion

Aaliyah told us "age ain't nothing but a number." If only that were true in professional sports. We marvel at players like Nelson Cruz, Tom Brady, and LeBron James because they can play at an elite level beyond 35, when most athletes have already declined or hung it up entirely. They say it all goes downhill after 30. This may be true for the majority of the population, athletes included, but some guys are just getting started.

How you choose to define the term "breakout" also matters. Robbie Grossman has been an occasional streaming option at best over his career. This season, he's hitting .251 with five HR and 22 RBI but his seven steals rank top-10 in the league. Is that going to make him a breakout player if he returns top-25 OF value, which he's doing right now in OBP leagues, and ranks top-100 among hitters as he is right now? I wouldn't slap on the breakout label for something like that but if he is on your roster helping you win, who cares how you describe him?

It will be interesting to see if Garcia, Mercedes, and others can keep it going all year long. Baseball is back to being a marathon again, so extract the best you can out of these guys through the first half and cross your fingers that Father Time doesn't catch up.

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