Outfielders Ready to Break Out Late

January 18, 2021

Jamie Steed examines older outfielders past the age of 26 who could have breakout seasons for fantasy baseball in 2021.

Finding value is crucial on draft day and finding just one or two players in the mid to late rounds in drafts that provide better numbers than projected can give you a significant edge on the competition as you bid for fantasy glory.

All too often, we look for the new shiny object in drafts thinking they’ll come up to the Majors and dominant straight away. While some do, we need to remember that development isn’t linear and while some players will be stars at 22, some players take a bit longer to show their real talents.

That’s where we will be focusing our attention now, looking at three outfielders who are aged between 26-29 years old and are set to break out after having a so-so career to date.

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Randal Grichuk (OF, TOR)

29 years old

In 2019, Grichuk had a break out of sorts with 31 homers in 151 games. It was the first time Grichuk had hit 30+ homers in a season and not coincidental, it was the first time he played in 150+ games since his Major League debut in 2014 (his previous best was 132 games in 2016). Last year, Grichuk managed to hit 12 homers in his 55 games (a pace of 32 homers in 162 games) but what was most striking is he did so while having his highest batting average and on-base percentage since 2015 with a .273/.312/.481 slash line.

The reason that is significant is the .273 batting average wasn't fueled by an increased BABIP like it was in 2015 when Grichuk hit .276 with a .365 BABIP. In 2020 Grichuk's BABIP was .299, which is much nearer his career mark of .295. A key contributor to the increased batting average is Grichuk made more contact and cut his strikeout rate (K%) down to a career-best 21.2% in 2020, while maintaining his walk rate (BB%) at 5.6% for the second straight season.

As we can see from his core numbers above, Grichuk has been a pretty consistent performer without ever taking that next step up. So what's changed for Grichuk to make more contact and not see a decline in his power output and why do we think he'll break out in 2021?

Cutting down on the strikeouts has been the biggest contributor to Grichuk's improved batting average. According to Statcast, Grichuk has never ranked higher than in the 25th percentile for whiff% (swing and misses) until last season when he ranked in the 67th percentile. Last year's numbers for swinging and contact for pitches in the zone were similar to previous seasons, so too was his chase rate (how many pitches a player swings at outside of the strike zone). It was the contact he made swinging on pitches outside of the strike zone (chase contact %) that took a huge leap forward with a 65.8% chase contact rate in 2020 compared to a 51.3% career mark.

This newfound ability to make contact on pitches outside of the zone helps Grichuk lengthen at-bats by fouling off pitches if he doesn't manage to put the ball in play. A change in his batting stance during the 2019 season was credited to helping Grichuk follow the ball for longer. As shown in the below image, the left side was during an at-bat in 2018 with the image on the right showing his new stance.

Being more upright in his stance is allowing Grichuk to track pitches for longer and in turn, has increased the number of hits to right field as his Statcast batted ball profile shows a career-high 30.8% opposite-field hit rate compared to a 22.2% career rate. It's likely no coincidence that Grichuk hasn't been on the IL since this change too.

The move from St. Louis to Toronto is a significant help for hitters so it should be of no surprise Grichuk's HR tally has increased since being traded to the Blue Jays prior to the 2018 season. To give you an idea as to how much it helps with homers, we can compare the two ballpark factors for 2019.

The above data is taken from ESPN and uses 1.000 as a neutral base number so the higher the numbers, the greater the benefit to hitters. Rodgers Centre offers a big boost to hitting homers and if the Blue Jays end up playing in Buffalo again like they did in 2020, that boost will be even greater.

Toronto also offers a better lineup than they have had in some time and they ranked 7th in runs per game (RPG) scored in 2020 (5.03 RPG) up from 4.48 RPG in 2019 and 4.38 RPG in 2018. That should boost Grichuk's run production to career highs too as in 2020, he paced 102 runs and 95 RBI over a full season.

As of early January, Grichuk has an ADP ~180 and is the ~50th outfielder being drafted on average. Even a slight drop off from last season's gains would see Grichuk hit 30 HR, .270 avg, 90 runs and 85 RBI which presents significant value on his current ADP. But Grichuk has shown enough improvement over the last two years to suggest he can outdo this and potentially rank inside the top-50 hitters at the end of 2021.

Ian Happ (OF, CHC)

26 years old

Happ debuted in 2017 as a 22-year-old former first-round draft pick and looked like he'll be a key fixture in the Cubs lineup for years to come after hitting 24 homers in 115 games with a .253/.328/.524 slash line. Unfortunately, Happ suffered a sophomore slump in 2018 and hit .233/.353/.408 in 2018, with just 15 homers in 142 games and a ghastly 36.1% K%. For context, only one hitter with at least 450 plate appearances had a higher strikeout rate - Chris Davis at 36.8%.

Happ spent much of 2019 in Triple-A but did impress in 58 games for the Cubs after being called up again and carried that form into the 2020 season. Across the last two years, Happ has played 115 games for the Cubs and hit 23 homers with a .260/.350/.530 slash line. Something which has remained at a high level for Happ throughout his four seasons in the Majors is his walk-rate which currently sits at 12.2% BB% and that led to the Cubs using Happ as their leadoff hitter for most of the 2020 season.

While Happ's 2020 numbers didn't really stand out much, his Statcast profile suggests the power output should increase going forward.

The strikeouts aren't going to disappear but his excellent walk-rate at least keeps Happ as the likely leadoff hitter for the Cubs. The fact Happ ranked in the 84th percentile for average exit velocity and 89th percentile for hard-hit rate in 2020, yet only 68th percentile for barrel rate (which measures the number of batted balls with a perfect launch angle and exit velocity) tells us his launch angle didn't lead to enough barreled balls.

In 2020, Happ ranked 53rd among the 142 qualified hitters in groundball-rate (GB%) with 45.2% but only ranked 98th in fly-ball rate (FB%) with 32.6%. So despite making gains in his output, Happ is still hitting the ball on the ground too much.

Happ has still found success despite a higher than ideal groundball rate so even if he doesn't manage to correct that, he still hit for a 162 game rate of 32 homers last year with 73 runs and 75 RBI. There's reason to believe he could hit more balls in the air in 2021 too as his groundball rate in 2020 was actually his highest in any season.

If Happ is able to hit the ball in the air a bit more like he was doing before the 2020 season, that home run pace should top 35 over a full season and with a continued excellent walk-rate, a solid batting average and the leadoff role, Happ has a clear path to significantly outperforming his current ~161 ADP. Happ is trending in the right direction and although the Cubs seem intent on shedding salary that might weaken the lineup around him this year, he is primed for a big season. In leagues that count walks/OBP, Happ is even more valuable.

Victor Reyes (OF, DET)

26 years old

The Tigers outfielder will be in his fourth season as a Major Leaguer in 2021 although he's only played 226 games in his first three seasons since his debut. Reyes has been a solid hitter for the Tigers so far with a career .271/.300/.375 slash line, eight homers and 26 steals. That alone should tell you where his fantasy value lies. But there's more to Reyes than meets the eye and reason to believe he could use 2021 to become more of a household name.

Despite it being unlikely Reyes will have much more than average power production throughout his career, there's still room for growth in the power department if we look at last year's underlying numbers.

Similar to Happ, Reyes' exit velocity and hard-hit rate haven't translated into more homers due to hitting the ball on the ground too often. For Reyes, his speed means groundballs aren't necessarily a bad thing. But Reyes has increased his flyball rate in each of the last three seasons from 23.6% in 2018, 26.3% in 2019 and 28.4% in 2020. His average exit velocity has also increased in each of his last three seasons from 85.4 MPH in 2018, 87.5 MPH in 2019 and 90.0 MPH in 2020.

Along with steady growth in his underlying numbers which suggest more power is set to emerge, Reyes also had better expected stats than his actual numbers last year so could have flashed more signs of a break out last year.

Reyes batted leadoff for most of last season despite his poor walk-rate. That's in part due to the Tigers having a lack of viable options and also due to his speed. Last year was the first time Reyes didn't rank in the 90th percentile or better for sprint speed but he was still in the 75th percentile for 2020. That led to eight steals in ten attempts over 57 games which equates to 21 steals over a 162-game season.

New Tigers manager A.J Hinch hasn't been afraid of green-lighting his players on the bases. As manager of the Astros, they ranked inside the top-10 for stolen bases in three of his five seasons. Reyes has the speed and an 81.25% success rate in stolen base attempts in the Majors so 25 stolen bases are certainly in play next year. Hinch also has a track record of using analytics extensively so it's not unreasonable to expect him to help Reyes harness some more power with some adjustments too. And even on a bad team, as the leadoff hitter, Reyes has a chance to score ~75 runs as his 30 runs scored last year equates to 81 over a 162 game season.

If Reyes' expected numbers materialize into his actual stats and he continues to show growth in the power department, we're looking at a .280 avg, 25 steals and 15 homers season which roughly translates into a draft cost inside the top-100 according to Nick Mariano's Expected Draft Values research. At his age 26 season, Reyes is primed to have a break out year in 2021 and return significant value on his current ADP of ~181.

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