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Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley is a 2021 fantasy baseball draft value. His ADP is undervalued, making him a potential draft bargain and late-round sleeper to target.
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 185
CURRENT ADP: ~206 overall
ANALYSIS: With the power being the strength in his game it was encouraging to see him not selling out for power as much in 2020. He hit more line drives (30.7%) but unfortunately he saw a big jump in ground balls. Up to 42.1% from 25.6% in 2019. This came almost exclusively from the fly ball rate. However, with the average launch angle dropping 7 degrees to 13.6%, it makes sense we saw the ground balls increase but sustaining the line drives is a good sign. This could suggest improvement in batting average, which was actually suggested in the xBA being .262 which was 23 points above the actual batting average.
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There was a notable increase in his contact rate (by 9% overall). And in doing so, he cut down on the SwStr% by 5.7% as well. The gains in walk rate is in part due to chasing less. The O-Swing% was down 4.2%. It was still relatively high but still a step in the right direction. Lastly, he also decreased his whiff% and tightened up the swing a bit. Austin Riley is very interesting and the upside is there. Hopefully, we see him carry these changes into 2021.
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