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Dominick Petrillo breaks down the value of New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara heading into 2022 fantasy football drafts based on concerns of a possible suspension.
The talent of Alvin Kamara is undeniable. In his first five seasons in the NFL, Kamara has made the Pro Bowl after each season. He has brought a dynamic running game to the New Orleans Saints as well as a threat in the passing game.
During his first five seasons, Kamara has averaged 847.6 yards rushing and 9.4 rushing touchdowns. In the passing game, Kamara adds even more. In five seasons, he has surpassed 80 receptions three separate times and has compiled 20 receiving touchdowns over this time.
With his dual-threat ability out of the backfield only surpassed by a healthy Christian McCaffrey, Kamara deserves to be drafted as a top-five running back for fantasy leagues. But what about the looming suspension? How does this affect his price in 2022 drafts?
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Latest Updates on Kamara
According to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN, the NFL is looking to wait until after the court has its first hearing on August 1st before they proceed with any action against Alvin Kamara.
Next step in the Alvin Kamara case is his August 1 court date. We'll see if that date actually happens -- it's already been pushed back twice. https://t.co/POmHrnb8E5
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) July 24, 2022
This is not to say he isn't going to be suspended. In fact, the likelihood of a suspension is substantial. Saying this, Kamara has dropped to being the 13th drafted running back for fantasy football based on early ADP. This might not be far enough.
If he is to miss six games due to suspension, as many suspect based on the circumstances and comparison to similar past cases, he will certainly not bring back value on this draft selection. This is likely to be the punishment for the star running back. That would make up 37% of the fantasy football season (for most leagues), more than one-third of games played without one of your top picks.
Fortunately, most drafts do not occur until the end of August at the earliest. By this time, the suspension to be handed down should be known to fantasy managers and New Orleans Saints fans alike. But if you are doing a draft now, especially a redraft league, the smart play is to take someone else and hope he falls a round or two before taking him.
If you take Kamara in the first three rounds as your RB1 or RB2, you are strongly betting that the NFL doesn't hand down any consequence for him. Or perhaps might be playing with fire. A fire that will set your season ablaze.
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