RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my PGA DFS Pivots for DraftKings! This week, the PGA event is The Arnold Palmer Invitational.
The Florida swing got off to an exciting start last week at The Honda Classic. We arrive at another difficult course this week for The Arnold Palmer Invitational. The length, rough, and wind are some factors that make Bay Hill one of the tougher courses on tour. When wind could be a factor, we want to monitor the forecast to identify any tee time advantages.
As of now, there appears to be a slight advantage to the PM/AM tee times. Predicting weather can be difficult, so it is best not to solely lean on forecasts. If there is a narrative around a particular tee time stack, it can also be advantageous to pivot and stack the unpopular tee time wave. Any option to possibly gain some leverage over our competitors is welcomed!
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Arnold Palmer Invitational: DFS Lineup Pivots
Pivot Off Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,200) to Marc Leishman ($9,100)
It is understandable why Mathew Fitzpatrick is one of the highest owned golfers in the field. He arrives at Bay Hill off two straight top-ten finishes. He also has exceptional course history at this event, recording three straight top-ten place finishes. There are not a lot of holes with Fitzpatrick that say we should totally fade him. However, golf is a high variance sport and in GPPs we don’t receive much leverage from rostering a guy like Fitzpatrick. If you love him this week, make sure you get contrarian elsewhere.
Marc Leishman is currently projected to be almost half the ownership of Fitzpatrick. Is Fitzpatrick substantially more likely to outperform Leishman? Leishman also arrives in Bay Hill in good form. He has three top 20 place finishes out of four starts to begin the year. Leishman also won this event in 2017. Lastly, Leishman is third in the field in strokes gained total at Bay Hill. If his projected ownership remains low, Leishman makes for a great pivot.
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Pivot Off Keith Mitchell ($8,100) to Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,700)
Similar to Fitzpatrick, Keith Mitchell projected high ownership makes a lot of sense. He arrives in good form and has great course history. In three starts at this event, Mitchell has two top-ten place finishes. Mitchell makes for a great bet but could bring some trouble in DFS. The problem with Mitchell is his consistency and along with his high ownership; makes for a risky GPP play. Possibly a better cash game play, Mitchell has not shown to be the type of golfer over his career that might warrant rostering him at his projected number. We get an opportunity to pivot to a golfer at a similar talent level with more room for leverage.
Christian Bezuidenhout is currently projected to be severely less owned than Mitchell. The 27-year-old South African has played six out of seven events in 2022. Bezuidenhout's recently recorded a top 25-place finish at The Honda. Bezuidenhout relied on his off-the-tee game and putting last week. Bezuidenhout should be comfortable at Bay Hill this week. He has played this event twice, recording a seventh-place finish and an 18th-place finish. While he is not one of the longer hitters on tour, he can have success here with his approach play with his long irons. Bezuidenhout’s possible upside and lower ownership could be a good leverage play.
Pivot Off Keegan Bradley ($7,300) to Sebastian Munoz ($7,000)
Surprisingly, Keegan Bradley is projected to be one of the highest golfers in his price point. Bradley has played this event 10 times only missing the cut once in 2011. Bradley has not seen the success that he received early in his career. His last win was The BMW in 2018. While we don’t a win from a rostered golfer at his price, it may show that his upside is limited.
Sebastian Munoz arrives at Bay Hill in good form. He has gained strokes on approach in three straight events. In his last start at The Genesis, he also gained 8.9 strokes tee-to-green. Munoz's putting has let him down so far this year. He has not gained strokes on the green since The RSM Classic. The good news for Munoz is that the returns to a Bermuda putting surface this week. Munoz has a small sample size in course history at this event. He has played here twice and has one made cut. He should be a great fit at Bay Hill. With almost 30% of approach shots coming from 200+ yards, he ranks first in the field in proximity from that range over the last 24 rounds. At lower ownership, Munoz is a great pivot off Bradley.
Other Possible Pivot Options:
Adam Svensson ($6,700) It is hard to find a golfer hitting the ball better than Adam Svensson in his price range. Last week at The Honda he gained 11.8 strokes tee-to-green. Svensson has also made every cut this year on tour. That type of form and consistency is hard to find in a $6,000 golfer. While it is his first start at this event, I like Svensson as another cheap pivot option.
Taylor Pendrith ($6,500) Taylor Pendrith is known as an excellent driver of the golf ball. He is near the top of the field in driving distance and strokes gained off-the-tee. His abilities will come in handy this week at Bay Hill. Pendrith also appears to be in great form. In his last start at The Honda, he gained 4.7 strokes on approach. That was the highest he has gained in that metric on tour. If he can continue his strong off-the-tee gain and continue the approach form, he could severely exceed his value.
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