RADIO
Well, they say that all good things have to come to an end, right? The cruel reality that you can't win every night reared its ugly head last night as I went 0-4 with the first goose egg that I've taken in a few weeks. The Spurs hurt the most as they led or within a basket of Chicago for most of the game before getting outscored by 17 points in the fourth to lose by 11. The Warriors are clearly not the powerhouse they were earlier in the season as they couldn't get it done against the Clippers and both Kyle Kuzma and Dejounte Murray came up a few stats short of their props. Today, we dust ourselves off and get right back at it with another solid slate of games in the NBA.
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Tuesday, February 15th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 91-80-1
- Against the Spread 53-41-1
- Over/Under 22-31
- Other/Props 16-8
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Boston Celtics (-1.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers (210 total)
The Celtics are on quite the streak right now having won eight in a row and nine of their last ten. They seem to be coming together and playing some of their best basketball right now and the timing couldn't be better as they badly needed this win streak to climb the standings in an ultra-competitive Eastern Conference.
But do they deserve to be favored on the road in Philly? Against the front-runner for the MVP race in Joel Embiid? Sure, the Sixers are still waiting for the debut of their prize acquisition James Harden (that won't be until after the All-Star Break), but Embiid is playing at arguably the highest level of his career right now and has carried this team all season. I watched every minute of the Sixers-Cavs game this weekend and Embiid was downright unstoppable even with another All-Star caliber center guarding him (Jarrett Allen). The Cavs are a solid defensive team with all kinds of length and they couldn't even slow down Embiid.
Tyrese Maxey is playing really well right now and Tobias Harris has always given the Celtics fits. Toss in the stifling defense of Matisse Thybulle and the Sixers have enough personnel to match the Celtics. I'll take the better team instead of the hotter team at home - give me the Sixers to win at plus odds.
The Pick: Sixers ML (+105)
Cleveland Cavaliers (-1.5) @ Atlanta Hawks (221 total)
The Cavs have been one of the best stories in the league this year and I've mentioned this before - they have made watching NBA basketball more enjoyable for me than it has been in some time. They are my team and I love how they've built this team into a contender in only a few years after LeBron left the franchise in shambles.
But back to this game, specifically, as Cleveland is only a small favorite on the road against an inconsistent Hawks team. Trae Young is a beast, but we don't often know what we are getting from the rest of this team on a nightly basis. They'll beat a few good teams then lose to some bad ones right afterward. As far as the season series goes, it's tied 1-1 with Cleveland picking up an early-season October win (Collin Sexton played in that game) and the Hawks squeaking out a win on New Year's Eve i a game that Darius Garland didn't play in. Oddly enough, Garland hasn't faced the Hawks at all this year.
With Garland and LeVert having their minutes staggered and then closing games together, this Cavs team has some serious punch now in the backcourt to go along with their elite size and interior defense/rebounding. They are just a better all-around team than most of the second-tier teams in the league and they should be favored by more here. I like them to win and cover tonight, they've been great ATS all year so I will keep riding them here in a good spot.
The Pick: Cavs -1.5 (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies (-3.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (227.5 total)
So I'm wondering why this spread is as close as it is. Yes, the Pelicans are at home and coming off an impressive 30-point win last night against the Raptors, which was their first since C.J. McCollum came over at the deadline. But the Grizzlies are a top-5 team in the NBA and winners of their last five games and eight of their last ten.
At 39-19 ATS, Memphis has the best record of covering in the league this season. Ja Morant is playing well but it's really been the improved play of Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. that has given them a powerful and formidable starting lineup. Steven Adams brings toughness and rebounding and the bench is about as deep as you'll find in the league with 5-6 guys who have all stepped up and made important contributions at various points this season.
I will keep it simple here. Memphis is good...like really, really good. And the Pelicans have been pretty bad most of the season. Maybe McCollum moves the needle a little, but not enough for New Orleans to hang with Memphis on the second half of a back-to-back. Put your money on Memphis, they rarely disappoint in these spots.
The Pick: Grizzlies -3.5 (-110) BE WARNED THAT JA MORANT IS CURRENTLY QUESTIONABLE AND THAT WOULD GREATLY AFFECT THIS LINE IF HE'S OUT
NBA Totals Betting Picks
No totals from me today. Yes, the chart likes a few unders quite a bit, but I couldn't find enough other data to support those picks, and my track record with totals has been rough this year. Simply said, I don't have enough confidence in those picks to officially endorse them here as "best bets"
Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.
NBA Prop Bet Picks
Garland is the engine that drives this Cavs offense and if I like them to win tonight, it means I also like him to have a good game. Targeting opposing point guards vs. Trae Young is usually a good idea as Young is an elite scorer and passer but not much of a defender. Atlanta yields above-average production to opposing point guards and Garland is sitting at 31.4 average PRA this season so the line at Caesar's here at 32.5 is only one higher than his average production. I love Garland to go over that number tonight and for the Cavs offense to get it done and pick up a win.
The Pick: Darius Garland over 32.5 PRA (-105)
2:00 PM Update: I am going to add a few more player props I really like tonight here now that more are posted.
The Pick: Buddy Hield over 3.5 threes (-125)
Hield has played 40 minutes in each of his first two games in Indiana and is chucking up shots like crazy. He's attempted 23 threes in those two games and I expect him to get another 10+ attempts up tonight. Milwaukee allows the most 3PA of any team in the NBA. Hield hits threes at a 36% rate this season so he'd hit four on 11 attempts if he shoots at his average rate.
The Pick: Desmond Bane over 2.5 threes (-135)
Another three-point prop here I really love as Bane has been an excellent three-point marksman this season shooting the long ball at a 41.5% clip. He's 7-11 over his last two games and could end up taking more shots tonight if Morant happens to sit (let's hope he doesn't for that Memphis bet). The Pelicans allow the third-best 3P% to opponents this year and I look for Bane to have a big day from behind the arc tonight against a tired Pelicans team playing a back-to-back.
No Teasers or Parlays tonight! But check out some of the boosts and super boosts that Caesar's is offering as pre-packaged parlays.
Joel Embiid and Jayson Tatum to score 25 points each (+160) - I like this one a lot!
Sixers/Mavs/Suns ML Parlay (+400) - I would wait and see if Jimmy Butler is playing before attacking this one as the Mavs will have their work cut out for them if Butler plays.
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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