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Welcome to the Week 15 Sunday slates edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
- This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 15 Sunday slates!
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. ATL | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $29
Garoppolo is still prone to make some mistakes from time to time, but he checks into Sunday's conference matchups with impressive yardage tallies of 299 and 296 yards in his last pair of contests. The veteran has multiple touchdown passes in five of his last six games as well, and he has an explosive and healthy top trio of targets in the form of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Jimmy G also has an appealing matchup on tap, as the Falcons check in with a No. 30 ranking in Defense DVOA, including a No. 29 slotting in Pass Defense DVOA specifically.
Davis Mills, HOU at JAX | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $23
Mills undoubtedly carries some risk, even against a Jaguars team that might be playing with a brand new outlook due to the change at head coach. However, the rookie has been impressive on multiple occasions this season, enough to earn him the starting nod the rest of the way over veteran Tyrod Taylor. Mills has a trio of 300-yard efforts, including a career-best 331-yard effort versus Seattle in Week 14, and the Jaguars come in with a No. 31 ranking in Pass Defense DVOA while also allowing the third-highest explosive pass play rate in the league (10%).
ALSO CONSIDER: Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. NYJ | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $28
Running Back DFS Value Plays
James Robinson, JAC vs. HOU | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $22
Perhaps no player was underused more under Urban Meyer's brief time helming the Jaguars than Robinson, who logged just a combined 14 carries over Meyer's final two games. The second-year back is still averaging an outstanding 4.8 yards per carry and continues to enjoy a steady role in the passing game as well, and interim coach Darrell Bevell could make it a point to lean on Robinson in true lead-back fashion in his first game with the top job. The matchup would seem to call for it, as the Texans have a No. 27 ranking in Rush Defense DVOA, a No. 31 ranking in PFF's Tackling metric and 30th in rush yards per attempt allowed.
Jeff Wilson Jr., SF vs. ATL | DK: $5,000, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $17
Elijah Mitchell will miss Sunday's game with a concussion and a knee injury, setting Wilson up for a shot at lead-back status. The fourth-year back took 13 carries for 56 yards against the Bengals in that capacity in Week 14, and although he hasn't been involved in the passing game this season, he did notch three receiving TDs in 2020. Wilson should benefit from a favorable game script in Week 15 against a Falcons defense that's ranked No. 23 in Rush Defense DVOA and allowed 10 TDs on the ground to RBs. What's more, Atlanta has yielded a robust 80-607-3 line through the air to the position, brightening Wilson's overall outlook further.
ALSO CONSIDER: D'Onta Foreman, TEN at PIT | DK: $5,200, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $18
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Chase Claypool , PIT vs. TEN | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $22
The Titans have surrendered an NFL-high 205 receptions and 2,569 yards to wide receivers, along with 16 touchdowns. Tennessee has also allowed 11.1 yards per completion on the road, ranking them in the bottom 10 of the league in that category. Tennessee checks in allowing the third-most passing yards per game on the road (271.8) as well, while Claypool is averaging 16.0 yards per reception and has seen 12 of his 47 catches go for over 20 yards.
A.J. Green, ARI at DET | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $14
Green is now the Cardinals' No. 1 receiver in name with DeAndre Hopkins sitting out the rest of the regular season at minimum with a knee injury. The veteran has already enjoyed a resurgent season of sorts in the desert while recording his highest YPC figure since his 2011 rookie season. Green gets a tantalizing matchup at salaries that are not reflective of his new role, as the Lions have allowed an NFC-high 13.3 yards per completion at home, along with the second-highest explosive pass play rate (11%).
DeVante Parker, MIA vs. NYJ | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $17
Jaylen Waddle is set to miss Sunday's game due to COVID-19, and Will Fuller remains on injured reserve with his finger injury. That leaves Parker with a clear No. 1 wideout role for a battle against a Jets defense that's ranked No. 32 in Pass Defense DVOA and that's given up the highest explosive pass play rate (12%) in the league as well. New York is also allowing the third-highest yards per completion on the road (11.3), while Parker has an elevated average depth of target of 12.2 yards and posted a solid 5-62 line in his first game back from injured reserve in Week 13.
ALSO CONSIDER: Allen Lazard, GB at BAL | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $16
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Dalton Schultz, DAL at NYG | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $17
Schultz turned in an absolute dud in Week 14 despite a favorable matchup against Washington, which makes it a great time to take another crack at him this week in tournaments. The sure-handed tight end posted an impressive 6-79 line on nine targets in the first meeting with the Giants this season, and he's posted at least five grabs in seven games overall. The Giants have continued to be generous to tight ends throughout the season, now allowing a 71-654-5 line to the position over 13 games.
Noah Fant, DEN vs. CIN | DK: $4,400, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $15
Fant continues to enjoy one of the safer floors at tight end, as he's averaging just under six targets per contest and has at least four catches in eight games. He continues to carry very reasonable salaries, and although it's only led to three touchdowns thus far, he has enjoyed a consistent red-zone role with 13 targets inside the 20 over 12 games. The Bengals have been vulnerable to tight ends as well, surrendering a 68-757-6 line to the position in their first 13 games.
ALSO CONSIDER: James O'Shaughnessy, JAC vs. HOU | DK: $3,200, FD: $4,600, Yahoo: $11
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