Saquon Barkley - Bust or Bounce Back?

Is New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley trending up or down after Week 2 of the 2021 fantasy football season and what should fantasy GMs do with him?

Saquon Barkley is arguably the most polarizing figure in fantasy football at the moment. How is it possible that a player formerly thought of as a once-in-a-generation talent with sexy quads has now suddenly turned into an injury-prone risk stuck on a perenially bad football team? Each and every time I pop open my Twitter app, it seems like 50 percent of the population have chosen to fade him, while the other 50 percent are still hanging on by a thread to the belief that he can once again achieve RB1 status this season. Both sides have valid arguments.

At the moment, things aren't looking too good for the pro-Barkley camp. He's posted a grand total of 12.6 PPR points through the first two weeks of the season and has been outscored by the likes of Zach Moss (15.4) and Cordarrelle Patterson (23.9). Moss has played 18 total snaps and Patterson is literally a wide receiver.

So what's next? Before taking an emotional stance, let's look at what the numbers have to say.

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He's a Bust!

If you used a first-round pick on Barkley, it's very possible your fantasy team is 0-2 heading into Week 3. Taking a closer look at Barkley's numbers, a few negatives stick out. For starters, he's only seen six targets in the passing game through two weeks, which is a far cry from his rookie season where he saw 121 targets through 16 games. It's obvious that Daniel Jones doesn't target his running backs as much as Eli Manning but six targets is less than Jeremy McNichols at this point in the season. If Saquon has any chance at reclaiming RB1 status he will have to be more of a factor in the passing game.

Another troublesome stat for Barkley through two weeks has been his YPC. The Giants' offensive line was ranked last by Pro Football Focus (PFF) after Week 1 and four of the five starting offensive linemen received grades lower than 65.0. This was a major concern heading into the season and it's rearing its ugly head early on. For reference, Barkley rushed for 5.0 YPC and 4.6 YPC respectively in his first two seasons and it's now sitting at 3.6 YPC after two games.

He's Back!

Despite all of the negatives surrounding Barkley after two weeks, there have been some positives. The most important being his snap rate increased dramatically from Week 1 to Week 2. He only played on 48% (29) of the team's offensive snaps in Week 1 but saw that number spike to 84% (58) in Week 2. Given that the Giants were playing on a short week against the Washington Football Team, this is a significant development. It shows that the coaches are comfortable increasing his workload and there have not been any reported setbacks. Only Derrick Henry played more snaps than Saquon Barkley in Week 2.

In more encouraging news, Barkley is seeing opposing defenses stack fewer players in the box prior to the snap. This is an interesting stat, as mostly the elite running backs see a higher percentage of 8+ Defenders in the Box (8+D%) for obvious reasons. In Barkley's rookie season, he faced 8+ defenders in the box on nearly 23% of his snaps. That number dropped to 11.21% in 2019 and through two weeks in 2021, it's sitting at 8.7%. Two things could be the cause for this: 1) Defenses actually respect Jones as a passer or 2) Defenses aren't scared of Saquon like they used to be. We're all hoping the latter isn't the case but even if it is, Saquon should have the most running room he's had since entering the league moving forward.

As for his presence in the passing game, the three targets were underwhelming Thursday, but Barkley did run 27 routes, which was third behind Najee Harris and Kenyan Drake in Week 2. The targets will come.

Verdict

When weighing both the positives and the negatives here, it's important to recognize that Saquon really couldn't have had a tougher schedule to start the year. Both the WFT and the Denver Broncos were each top-10 at defending the run last season. It's hard not to panic after a couple of rough fantasy outings, but Barkley gets a mouth-watering matchup against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday after 10 days of rest. He should feast.

Based on the above positive and negative trends, I absolutely believe that Barkley can turn things around. In fantasy football, volume is king and he should receive plenty of it. There is no competition for touches out of the backfield and the Giants' offense as a whole looks a bit better than they have in years past, sitting at 17th after finishing 31st last season. If Barkley isn't on my roster, I'm approaching the likely panicked manager and seeing what it takes to acquire him. You may be able to get him at a discount... for now.

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