Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Tour Championship

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Tour Championship DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Wyndham Championship. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!

If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Tour Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

East Lake

7,350 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda

The staggered starting positions for the Tour Championship will give us a unique format to dissect, but I do think it is important to remember that players starting 10-back of the lead will have their hands full to actually capture the title. East Lake isn't a course where you can pick up strokes in bunches, which is evident by the winning score (non-bonus starting amount) typically ending at around 12 to 13-under par. Golfers beginning the event from way behind will need multiple facets to come in properly if they want to make a run for the riches, which includes having the top of the board falter. In the last 45 events I have tracked after day one, only four golfers have come from six or more shots behind (less than nine percent), so it will be important for players to get themselves to that point to begin Friday. With all that being said, I do think the board presents an opportunity to open up more than usual.

East Lake is a challenging test that will make sure everyone earns their payday. The par-fours at the property are long, and it is essential to keep a clean scorecard until you have an opportunity to strike. Those edges typically come on the two par-fives - which each yield over a 40 percent birdie rate to go along with a small chance for eagle. Rory McIlroy gained nearly 53% of his scoring total at those two locations in 2019, and Dustin Johnson maintained his lead by also recording 55% of his strokes gained for the week there.

The greens feature Bermuda grass with shaved runoffs, and it will be important to miss shots in the correct quadrant. Golfers who do ultimately end up missing their targets will need to be able to gain strokes around the green, and there are 74 bunkers and six water hazards at the venue. Perhaps more so than most weeks, we also need to look at mental fortitude. With 15 million dollars on the line, there is going to be no room for error to wilt under the pressure.

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Patrick Cantlay leads the way at 4/1 and is followed by Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau at 5/1, Tony Finau at 6/1 and Justin Thomas at 16/1.

Key Stats 

• GIR + APP (L24) - 17.5%
• Accuracy + OTT - 15%
• SG Total Donald Ross 20%
• SG Total Bermuda 15%
• Par-Five Birdie or Better 12.5%
• Par-Four + Bogey Avoidance 10%
• Three-Putt + Sand Save + ATG 10%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are seven players this week priced above $11,000:

• Safest Play: Jon Rahm ($13,000) - The only real gripe for Jon Rahm is that he has finished between 6th and 13th at East Lake in his four starts when we remove starting strokes from the equation. With that being said, the Spaniard is playing the best golf of his career, and a Tour Championship victory seems like it is on the table.
• Most Upside: Justin Thomas ($11,000) - We will need explosion if a golfer wants to come from multiple shots back, and Justin Thomas provides just that at four-under par. Thomas has posted two 11-under par scores here in the last four years and has been inside the top-10 in scoring in all five starts since 2016.
• Favorite GPP Play: Tony Finau ($11,800) - Favorite might be the wrong terminology, but Tony Finau does have more of a shot to capture this title than some might believe. He has been solid at East Lake in the past, and any turnaround with his par-five scoring should give him a real chance.
• Fade: None - However, Patrick Cantlay ($13,400) would be the one I am least inclined to play. DeChambeau's range of outcomes might be more expansive than anyone in this event, which puts him under some consideration in GPP's, and Cantlay also has to be considered because of his low ownership and headstart. I have some concerns about his past at this venue, but I could be convinced if the threshold falls to around 10%

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000-$10,000 Range

• Safest Play: Rory McIlroy ($9,300) - Rory has dominated East Lake in his career, but it will not come without ownership pushback.
• Most Upside: Cameron Smith ($10,100) - Smith seems to have the best combination of starting score and upside to make a real run at the title.
• Favorite GPP Play: None
• Fade: Dustin Johnson ($10,700) and Jordan Spieth ($10,400)
• Most Likely Winner: Cameron Smith ($10,100) 

$7,000 - $8,000 Range

• Safest Play: Xander Schauffele ($8,900)
• Most Upside: Viktor Hovland ($8,000) 
• Favorite GPP Play: Louis Oosthuizen ($7,600) 
• Fade: None
• Most Likely Winner: Sungjae Im ($7,300)

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider (Sub-$7,000)

• Safest Play: Scottie Scheffler ($6,800)
• Most Upside: Joaquin Niemann ($5,600) 
• Favorite GPP Play: None
• Fade: Erik Van Rooyen ($5,000)
• Most Likely Winner: Scottie Scheffler ($6,800)

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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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